[h=1]Betting Thursday's Sweet 16 games[/h][h=3]Offering an ATS pick for all of Thursday's NCAA tournament games
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
[/h]We had exciting wall-to-wall basketball on Thursday and Friday, and 16 teams survived and advanced to this week, some more impressively than others. We had big upsets, with No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast knocking off No. 2 seed Georgetown (and following that up with an upset of No. 7 seed San Diego State), No. 14 seed Harvard beating No. 3 seed New Mexico, No. 13 seed La Salle coming in off a play-in game and beating No. 4 seed Kansas State and not one, not two, but three No. 12 seeds beating No. 5 seeds.
But it's interesting to note that for all the upsets, favorites actually went 26-22 against the spread (54.2 percent) from Thursday through Sunday. It shows that the upsets attract all the attention -- everyone loves a Cinderella story -- but the favorites had their share of success too, and oddsmakers were able to balance the action for the most part.
The lines are getting tighter now, as there has been relatively little line movement for the Sweet 16 matchups. I still think I've found two solid "best bets" (marked with an asterisk) for Thursday as I attempt to bounce back from a brutal 0-4 ATS mark on Saturday. All four of my 'dogs went down with a whimper, which negated all my previous profits. (I had been 14-9 ATS entering the weekend after a 12-8 ATS mark the final month of the regular season and 2-1 on Thursday.)
Here's a look at Thursday's card:
[h=3]No. 2 Miami Hurricanes versus No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles[/h]Vegas consensus line: Miami minus-5.5<OFFER>Marquette is a team that has puzzled me all season. At times, I think the Golden Eagles have a legitimate shot at winning the national title, but then they too often look like a middle-of-the-road team that was lucky to get to the Sweet 16. By all rights, they should have lost their opening game to Davidson, and I laid the 1.5-point spread with them against Butler and was sweating the whole game before they pulled out a 74-72 victory. Part of me thinks those tight games could prepare them for Thursday's matchup, with the difference now being that they're getting points. But I can't land on this underdog. Miami did have a scare in its noncovering 63-59 win over Illinois, and I think we'll see a more focused Hurricanes team. Durand Scott will probably draw the assignment of shadowing Marquette's Vander Blue and should be able to limit his effectiveness, while 6-foot-11 Kenny Kadji should control the middle.
The ATS pick: Miami
[h=3]No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes versus No. 6 Arizona Wildcats[/h]Vegas consensus line: Ohio State minus-3.5
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After rolling in its opener over Iona, Ohio State barely escaped the upset bid of Iowa State on Sunday. Aaron Craft hit the game winner, but he'll be challenged by Arizona guard Mark Lyons, assuming he draws that assignment. Arizona has won easily in its two tourney games, playing with a chip on its shoulder after feeling dissed by getting a No. 6 seed and then having the whole world predict the Wildcats would be upset by Belmont.
In addition to having an extra day of rest (having played Saturday while Ohio State played Sunday), the Wildcats (and their fans) have a shorter trip and are familiar with the Staples Center, as that's where the Pac-12 tourney was held last year. The wiseguys have already grabbed most of the plus-4s that were available, but I still think the underdog Cats are the right side.
The ATS pick: Arizona*
[h=3]No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers versus No. 4 Syracuse Orange[/h]Vegas consensus line: Indiana minus-5.5
Like Ohio State, Indiana nearly let down itself and the much-ballyhooed Big Ten, as the Hoosiers barely got by Temple in the round of 32. They didn't cover the 12.5-point spread but pulled away late to win 58-52. With the point spread in this range, that's what I would fear if I took the Orange plus the points. I just believe Indiana has too much talent.
Syracuse's zone defense is well-known, but Indiana's Victor Oladipo should be able to penetrate it. However, the biggest thing in my mind is that big men have given Syracuse problems and the Orange likely won't have an answer for Cody Zeller. The Hoosiers aren't invincible, and it appears the oddsmakers have caught up with them, as they've failed to cover three games in a row. But I just don't think we're getting enough points to fade them here.
The ATS pick: Indiana
[h=3]No. 9 Wichita State Shockers versus No. 13 La Salle Explorers[/h]Vegas consensus line: Wichita State minus-4
For which Cinderella will the clock strike midnight in the nightcap? Wichita State is coming off its impressive 76-70 upset of No. 1 seed Gonzaga, but the Shockers are being overshadowed by the Florida Gulf Coast story. It's even true in this game against La Salle, as the Explorers rolled to three upset wins last week over Boise State (in a First Four play-in game Wednesday), Kansas State and Ole Miss.
The Road Warriors, er Explorers, haven't been home since last Monday, but it's working for them as they were well-tested in the strong Atlantic 10. La Salle often uses a four-guard lineup, so the strong rebounding Wichita State team will likely win those stats. That said, La Salle's 6-8 sophomore forward Jerrell Wright should be able to hold his own (eight rebounds to go with 21 points in the upset of Kansas State). La Salle should be in this game the whole way and is the play.
The ATS pick: LaSalle*
Tuley's Take for Friday's Sweet 16 games: Louisville minus-10 versus Oregon, Michigan* plus-2 versus Kansas, Duke minus-2 versus Michigan State, Florida Gulf Coast* plus-13 versus Florida.
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
But it's interesting to note that for all the upsets, favorites actually went 26-22 against the spread (54.2 percent) from Thursday through Sunday. It shows that the upsets attract all the attention -- everyone loves a Cinderella story -- but the favorites had their share of success too, and oddsmakers were able to balance the action for the most part.
The lines are getting tighter now, as there has been relatively little line movement for the Sweet 16 matchups. I still think I've found two solid "best bets" (marked with an asterisk) for Thursday as I attempt to bounce back from a brutal 0-4 ATS mark on Saturday. All four of my 'dogs went down with a whimper, which negated all my previous profits. (I had been 14-9 ATS entering the weekend after a 12-8 ATS mark the final month of the regular season and 2-1 on Thursday.)
Here's a look at Thursday's card:
[h=3]No. 2 Miami Hurricanes versus No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles[/h]Vegas consensus line: Miami minus-5.5<OFFER>Marquette is a team that has puzzled me all season. At times, I think the Golden Eagles have a legitimate shot at winning the national title, but then they too often look like a middle-of-the-road team that was lucky to get to the Sweet 16. By all rights, they should have lost their opening game to Davidson, and I laid the 1.5-point spread with them against Butler and was sweating the whole game before they pulled out a 74-72 victory. Part of me thinks those tight games could prepare them for Thursday's matchup, with the difference now being that they're getting points. But I can't land on this underdog. Miami did have a scare in its noncovering 63-59 win over Illinois, and I think we'll see a more focused Hurricanes team. Durand Scott will probably draw the assignment of shadowing Marquette's Vander Blue and should be able to limit his effectiveness, while 6-foot-11 Kenny Kadji should control the middle.
The ATS pick: Miami
[h=3]No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes versus No. 6 Arizona Wildcats[/h]Vegas consensus line: Ohio State minus-3.5
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After rolling in its opener over Iona, Ohio State barely escaped the upset bid of Iowa State on Sunday. Aaron Craft hit the game winner, but he'll be challenged by Arizona guard Mark Lyons, assuming he draws that assignment. Arizona has won easily in its two tourney games, playing with a chip on its shoulder after feeling dissed by getting a No. 6 seed and then having the whole world predict the Wildcats would be upset by Belmont.
In addition to having an extra day of rest (having played Saturday while Ohio State played Sunday), the Wildcats (and their fans) have a shorter trip and are familiar with the Staples Center, as that's where the Pac-12 tourney was held last year. The wiseguys have already grabbed most of the plus-4s that were available, but I still think the underdog Cats are the right side.
The ATS pick: Arizona*
[h=3]No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers versus No. 4 Syracuse Orange[/h]Vegas consensus line: Indiana minus-5.5
Like Ohio State, Indiana nearly let down itself and the much-ballyhooed Big Ten, as the Hoosiers barely got by Temple in the round of 32. They didn't cover the 12.5-point spread but pulled away late to win 58-52. With the point spread in this range, that's what I would fear if I took the Orange plus the points. I just believe Indiana has too much talent.
Syracuse's zone defense is well-known, but Indiana's Victor Oladipo should be able to penetrate it. However, the biggest thing in my mind is that big men have given Syracuse problems and the Orange likely won't have an answer for Cody Zeller. The Hoosiers aren't invincible, and it appears the oddsmakers have caught up with them, as they've failed to cover three games in a row. But I just don't think we're getting enough points to fade them here.
The ATS pick: Indiana
[h=3]No. 9 Wichita State Shockers versus No. 13 La Salle Explorers[/h]Vegas consensus line: Wichita State minus-4
For which Cinderella will the clock strike midnight in the nightcap? Wichita State is coming off its impressive 76-70 upset of No. 1 seed Gonzaga, but the Shockers are being overshadowed by the Florida Gulf Coast story. It's even true in this game against La Salle, as the Explorers rolled to three upset wins last week over Boise State (in a First Four play-in game Wednesday), Kansas State and Ole Miss.
The Road Warriors, er Explorers, haven't been home since last Monday, but it's working for them as they were well-tested in the strong Atlantic 10. La Salle often uses a four-guard lineup, so the strong rebounding Wichita State team will likely win those stats. That said, La Salle's 6-8 sophomore forward Jerrell Wright should be able to hold his own (eight rebounds to go with 21 points in the upset of Kansas State). La Salle should be in this game the whole way and is the play.
The ATS pick: LaSalle*
Tuley's Take for Friday's Sweet 16 games: Louisville minus-10 versus Oregon, Michigan* plus-2 versus Kansas, Duke minus-2 versus Michigan State, Florida Gulf Coast* plus-13 versus Florida.
