[h=1]Best bets for Friday's games[/h][h=3]Louisville likely to cover versus Oregon; Florida to end FGCU's dream run[/h]By Ted Sevransky | ESPN Insider
The games below are listed in Las Vegas rotation order. While I'll offer a pick on every game, my best bets are marked with an asterisk, so you'll know which games I'll be betting (or have already bet) with my own money in Vegas.
[h=3]No. 1 Louisville Cardinals versus No. 12 Oregon Ducks[/h]Vegas consensus line: Louisville minus-10
PickCenter breakdown
To say that Rick Pitino has been a point-spread juggernaut in the postseason is something of an understatement. Since the start of the Big East tournament in 2012, the Cardinals have gone 13-0-1 against the closing point spread in Las Vegas in their 14 tournament games, winning a pair of Big East tourney titles and reaching the Final Four in the process. And since their epic five-overtime loss to Notre Dame in early February, Louisville has won 12 straight games while going 10-2 ATS. Both point-spread losses came in double-digit victories over St. John's and Seton Hall -- games in which the Cardinals were asked to win by 17.5 and 18.5 points, respectively. Here, they'll need to win by 11 to cover the line.
Oregon also is a red-hot point-spread team, reeling off five straight wins and four straight ATS covers since the start of the Pac-12 tournament. Dana Altman is a postseason winner and a great underdog coach (10-1 ATS in 11 tries as 'dogs of 4.5 points or higher in his two seasons in Eugene). The Ducks' low-post duo of Arsalan Kazemi and Tony Woods can bang in the paint with the likes of Gorgui Dieng, Chane Behanan and Montrezl Harrell. But the Ducks' point guard duo of freshman Dominic Artis and undersized junior Johnathan Loyd has struggled with turnovers all season -- which is bad news against the aggressive Louisville press.
The bottom line is that I have no interest betting against the team that I expect to win it all, even with the Ducks' strong track record in this role under Altman.
The ATS pick: Louisville
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[h=3]No. 2 Duke Blue Devils versus No. 3 Michigan State Spartans[/h]Vegas consensus line: Duke minus-2
PickCenter breakdown
The TV pundits will tell you that Coach K has won six of the last seven meetings against Tom Izzo, including relatively recent early season affairs in 2010 and 2011. But those talking heads won't tell you that Michigan State bettors are 5-2 against the spread in those ballgames, playing as underdogs in six of the seven battles, just as the Spartans are on Friday.
And Michigan State enjoys one key matchup edge against the Blue Devils. Duke is not known for its physicality, particularly that of big men Mason Plumlee and the struggling Ryan Kelly. The Spartans' low-post trio of Adreian Payne, Derrick Nix and Branden Dawson, who combined for 65 points and 49 points in their first two tourney games, is as tough and physical as it gets. And with Spartans point guard Keith Appling looking like he's good to go Friday after suffering minor knee and shoulder injuries last weekend, the only way I can look here is toward the underdog Spartans.
The ATS pick: Michigan State
[h=3]No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks versus No. 4 Michigan Wolverines[/h]Vegas consensus line: Kansas minus-2
PickCenter breakdown
This is a tale of two lottery picks who are headed in opposite directions. Michigan point guard Trey Burke committed seven turnovers against VCU and has struggled with his shot, going 8-of-26 from the floor in his first two tournament games. Still, Burke is skyrocketing up the NBA draft boards, as is teammate Glenn Robinson III, who hit 15 of 19 shots on the opening weekend. Burke's leadership abilities and poise under pressure have impressed the scouts, and bettors who supported Michigan last weekend were rewarded with a pair of wins and covers.
Kansas lottery pick Ben McLemore has been projected as high as No. 1 overall in the upcoming NBA draft, but his stock has been falling after a series of poor showings, going just 4-for-21 from the floor over his past three games while taking only 10 free throw attempts. Bill Self benched McLemore down the stretch of Kansas' win against North Carolina, which is a potential concern moving forward. And after playing for two straight weekends in front of friendly crowds at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo., this trip to Arlington, Texas, might not be quite so friendly.
The ATS pick: Michigan*
[h=3]No. 3 Florida Gators versus No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles[/h]Vegas consensus line: Florida minus-13
PickCenter breakdown
In my last column, I wrote that I had no interest in betting against Florida in its round of 32 matchup against Minnesota, calling the Gators "the real deal." I still believe that Florida is very alive in the national championship picture. Teams that contend for titles tend to be very good bets at this time of the season, even as double-digit favorites. And Florida is most assuredly a blowout team. Incredibly, 26 of its 28 wins have come by 13 points or more. The Gators' only two "close" wins all season both came against Alabama, by 10 and 12 points.
Florida Gulf Coast took my money Sunday when the Eagles pulled their second straight major upset in a win over San Diego State. Point guard Brett Comer dished the ball for 14 assists against the Aztecs, while top scorers Sherwood Brown and Bernard Thompson combined to shoot 15-for-23 from the field against a stellar defensive team, scoring a combined 40 points. But the Eagles are in rarified air as the first No. 15 seed to reach the second weekend of the Big Dance. I know FGCU has covered the spread in all eight of its lined games over the past two seasons, but the Sweet 16 is where Cinderella stories come to die.
The ATS pick: Florida*
The games below are listed in Las Vegas rotation order. While I'll offer a pick on every game, my best bets are marked with an asterisk, so you'll know which games I'll be betting (or have already bet) with my own money in Vegas.
[h=3]No. 1 Louisville Cardinals versus No. 12 Oregon Ducks[/h]Vegas consensus line: Louisville minus-10
PickCenter breakdown
To say that Rick Pitino has been a point-spread juggernaut in the postseason is something of an understatement. Since the start of the Big East tournament in 2012, the Cardinals have gone 13-0-1 against the closing point spread in Las Vegas in their 14 tournament games, winning a pair of Big East tourney titles and reaching the Final Four in the process. And since their epic five-overtime loss to Notre Dame in early February, Louisville has won 12 straight games while going 10-2 ATS. Both point-spread losses came in double-digit victories over St. John's and Seton Hall -- games in which the Cardinals were asked to win by 17.5 and 18.5 points, respectively. Here, they'll need to win by 11 to cover the line.
Oregon also is a red-hot point-spread team, reeling off five straight wins and four straight ATS covers since the start of the Pac-12 tournament. Dana Altman is a postseason winner and a great underdog coach (10-1 ATS in 11 tries as 'dogs of 4.5 points or higher in his two seasons in Eugene). The Ducks' low-post duo of Arsalan Kazemi and Tony Woods can bang in the paint with the likes of Gorgui Dieng, Chane Behanan and Montrezl Harrell. But the Ducks' point guard duo of freshman Dominic Artis and undersized junior Johnathan Loyd has struggled with turnovers all season -- which is bad news against the aggressive Louisville press.
The bottom line is that I have no interest betting against the team that I expect to win it all, even with the Ducks' strong track record in this role under Altman.
The ATS pick: Louisville
<OFFER>
[h=3]No. 2 Duke Blue Devils versus No. 3 Michigan State Spartans[/h]Vegas consensus line: Duke minus-2
PickCenter breakdown
The TV pundits will tell you that Coach K has won six of the last seven meetings against Tom Izzo, including relatively recent early season affairs in 2010 and 2011. But those talking heads won't tell you that Michigan State bettors are 5-2 against the spread in those ballgames, playing as underdogs in six of the seven battles, just as the Spartans are on Friday.
And Michigan State enjoys one key matchup edge against the Blue Devils. Duke is not known for its physicality, particularly that of big men Mason Plumlee and the struggling Ryan Kelly. The Spartans' low-post trio of Adreian Payne, Derrick Nix and Branden Dawson, who combined for 65 points and 49 points in their first two tourney games, is as tough and physical as it gets. And with Spartans point guard Keith Appling looking like he's good to go Friday after suffering minor knee and shoulder injuries last weekend, the only way I can look here is toward the underdog Spartans.
The ATS pick: Michigan State
[h=3]No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks versus No. 4 Michigan Wolverines[/h]Vegas consensus line: Kansas minus-2
PickCenter breakdown
This is a tale of two lottery picks who are headed in opposite directions. Michigan point guard Trey Burke committed seven turnovers against VCU and has struggled with his shot, going 8-of-26 from the floor in his first two tournament games. Still, Burke is skyrocketing up the NBA draft boards, as is teammate Glenn Robinson III, who hit 15 of 19 shots on the opening weekend. Burke's leadership abilities and poise under pressure have impressed the scouts, and bettors who supported Michigan last weekend were rewarded with a pair of wins and covers.
Kansas lottery pick Ben McLemore has been projected as high as No. 1 overall in the upcoming NBA draft, but his stock has been falling after a series of poor showings, going just 4-for-21 from the floor over his past three games while taking only 10 free throw attempts. Bill Self benched McLemore down the stretch of Kansas' win against North Carolina, which is a potential concern moving forward. And after playing for two straight weekends in front of friendly crowds at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo., this trip to Arlington, Texas, might not be quite so friendly.
The ATS pick: Michigan*
[h=3]No. 3 Florida Gators versus No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles[/h]Vegas consensus line: Florida minus-13
PickCenter breakdown
In my last column, I wrote that I had no interest in betting against Florida in its round of 32 matchup against Minnesota, calling the Gators "the real deal." I still believe that Florida is very alive in the national championship picture. Teams that contend for titles tend to be very good bets at this time of the season, even as double-digit favorites. And Florida is most assuredly a blowout team. Incredibly, 26 of its 28 wins have come by 13 points or more. The Gators' only two "close" wins all season both came against Alabama, by 10 and 12 points.
Florida Gulf Coast took my money Sunday when the Eagles pulled their second straight major upset in a win over San Diego State. Point guard Brett Comer dished the ball for 14 assists against the Aztecs, while top scorers Sherwood Brown and Bernard Thompson combined to shoot 15-for-23 from the field against a stellar defensive team, scoring a combined 40 points. But the Eagles are in rarified air as the first No. 15 seed to reach the second weekend of the Big Dance. I know FGCU has covered the spread in all eight of its lined games over the past two seasons, but the Sweet 16 is where Cinderella stories come to die.
The ATS pick: Florida*
