Betting Sunday's Elite 8 Games

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[h=1]Betting Sunday's Elite 8 games[/h][h=3]Making ATS picks for Duke-Louisville and Michigan-Florida[/h]
By Ted Sevransky | ESPN Insider
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Underdogs ruled the day in Sweet 16 betting action Thursday and Friday, finishing the round with a 6-2 against-the-spread record. That included outright upset wins by Syracuse, Marquette and Michigan, along with point-spread covers in defeat from Florida Gulf Coast, Oregon and Arizona. The only two favorites to cover the spread Thursday and Friday were Wichita State and Duke, both of which cruised to double-digit victories.


The long-term betting trends for the Elite Eight round tell us that we should expect more of the same on Sunday. Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Elite Eight action last year, but long-term, dating to 1998, underdogs are 35-23 ATS, cashing at a better than 60 percent clip over a 15-year sample size. That being said, I'm not in love with either underdog on Sunday.


I split with my two "best bets" in my last column, cashing with Michigan's wild overtime win over Kansas but losing with Florida when the Gators won by only 12 as 13- or 14-point favorites. Neither of my two lesser opinions (Louisville and Michigan State) cashed. With only two games on tap Sunday, I'm looking for a big bounce-back 2-0 sweep. Both recommendations in this article are wager-worthy, marked with an asterisk as best bets.


No. 1 Louisville Cardinals versus No. 2 Duke Blue Devils
Vegas consensus line:
Louisville minus-3.5
<OFFER>Just about everything went right for Duke in its 10-point win over Tom Izzo's Spartans on Friday. Fifth-year senior Seth Curry went nuts from 3-point range, hitting six of nine tries from beyond the arc while coming within a single bucket of matching his season high in scoring. The Blue Devils were extraordinarily proficient from the free throw line as well, hitting 24 of their 26 foul shots. That's well above their 73 percent season average from the charity stripe. The Blue Devils committed only seven turnovers -- well below their season average -- and avoided any semblance of foul trouble.


I'm not willing to bet that the Blue Devils will match that level of performance here. Coach Mike Krzyzewski's rotation lacks depth. Four of Duke's five starters played at least 36 minutes in that tough, physical contest against Michigan State, and it certainly won't get easier against another defensive-minded team like Louisville. Duke's biggest weaknesses -- limited depth, lack of low-post muscle and poor rebounding -- are all issues that Louisville can exploit. This is a tough matchup for Duke's low post duo of Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly, neither of whom handles physical opponents particularly well.


Louisville has been an undervalued commodity for more than a month, riding a 9-1 ATS mark in its last 10 games. And the Cardinals have been point-spread machines in the postseason, with a 13-1-1 ATS record in their last 15 Big East and NCAA tournament games, dating to the start of the 2012 Big East tournament. Their spotty shooting during the regular season has been a nonfactor in March, hitting better than 50 percent of their shots over their last five games. And it's worth noting that Rick Pitino's depth works strongly in his favor in this matchup -- only Russ Smith and Gorgui Dieng played more than 25 minutes in Friday's win over Oregon.

Duke won the first meeting between these two teams this season, a post-Thanksgiving matchup in the Bahamas. The Cardinals shot better than Duke, forced 14 Blue Devils turnovers, won the rebounding battle and dominated the offensive glass even without the injured Dieng but still lost the game. The key to that defeat was that Duke got the calls, making 23 free throws compared to only nine for Louisville. I'm not expecting that type of disparity in the rematch.

The ATS pick: Louisville*



No. 3 Florida Gators versus No. 4 Michigan Wolverines
Vegas consensus line:
Florida minus-2.5

Michigan certainly wasn't a "right side" winner against Kansas, but the Wolverines made all the big plays on both ends of the floor down the stretch in regulation and overtime. That's how they erased an 11-point deficit with less than four minutes to play against the Jayhawks. But Kansas coughed up that lead as much as Michigan erased it, committing three crucial turnovers in the final four minutes of regulation while Elijah Johnson missed the front end of the biggest one-and-one in the game and left the window open for Trey Burke to nail his NBA-range 3-pointer to send the game into overtime.


Now the Wolverines have to regroup and do it again against another top-notch foe. And this is one spot where coach John Beilein's youthful roster works against him. Freshman Mitch McGary is coming off the best game of his career, with 25 points and 14 boards against the Jayhawks. Fellow freshman Glenn Robinson III was outstanding as well, with 13 points, eight rebounds and three steals. And a third freshman, Nik Stauskas, also enjoyed his best game of the tourney. Two more freshmen -- guards Spike Albrecht and Caris LeVert -- routinely get significant minutes off the bench.


That's five freshmen in the Wolverines' nine-man rotation, and we're not talking about the Fab Five here -- none of these five will be drafted in the NBA lottery. The Wolverines' raucous celebration following their win over Kansas leaves them primed for at least a modest hangover.


In the column on the best national championship bets I wrote before the tournament started, I recommended a wager on Florida to win the national title. Nothing I've seen in that last two weeks has changed my opinion about the Gators' upside.

Florida's experience is a major factor in this game. Just about every key player in Billy Donovan's rotation played in the Gators' crushing Elite Eight loss to Louisville last season, a game in which the Cardinals overcame a double-digit deficit with only eight minutes to play to steal the game from the Gators. Kenny Boynton, Erik Murphy and Mike Rosario -- their three leading scorers -- are all seniors. Patric Young, Scottie Wilbekin, Casey Prather and Will Yeguete are juniors. Given that level of experience, don't expect Florida to choke away a late lead with the Final Four on the line for the second straight season.

The ATS pick: Florida*
 

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