Best MLB Player Props For 2013

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[h=1]Best player prop bets for 2013[/h][h=3]Why Giancarlo Stanton will lead MLB in home runs and other prop bets[/h]
By Dan Szymborski | ESPN Insider
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Last week I ran down some of my favorite opportunities in the sphere of team prop bets. Luckily, team props aren't the only way to risk your hard-earned dollars on baseball in March, as there's a tantalizing assortment of individual player props as well.

In an attempt to share my winnings (or my misfortune), I'll now run down some of my favorite player props for 2013 with the help of the ZiPS projection system.

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Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers
Bet: Cy Young (20/1)

At those odds, it's hard not to take an upside bet on Scherzer. If someone held me by the collar and threatened to rearrange my face if I don't pick the pitcher most likely to advance into the elite class of the league, it would be a very unusual situation, but one in which I'd have to back Scherzer. He was fourth in the American League in FIP last year (third in xFIP) and with last season's shoulder issues not recurring so far, Scherzer's getting some more buzz this spring. But I think he's even better. So I'm placing some money on the Silver Hammer.
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Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins
Bet: Most Home Runs (13/2)

Even with assorted injuries only limiting him to 449 at-bats, Stanton still managed 37 home runs in a pitcher's park for a lousy Marlins team last season. Stanton's power potential is downright scary -- he already has 93 homers in the majors and hasn't yet played a game as a 23-year-old. One might worry that a very weak Marlins lineup would leave pitchers not facing any consequences from pitching around Stanton, but Stanton hit in front of Gaby Sanchez, Greg Dobbs, and Carlos Lee quite frequently, none of whom exactly cast a dark shadow of terror over the hearts of National League hurlers last year.



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Josh Hamilton, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Bets: Under 31.5 home runs, under .295 batting average

No, Hamilton's not going to drop off a cliff in 2013 in overall performance, but he's moving from a very home run-friendly hitters' park to the considerably less friendly confines of Angel Stadium. That'll make his raw numbers drop off more than his actual production will. How big of a change is it? Translate his numbers to a 2012 Angel Stadium context, and he's only had one season of 32 or more home runs and one season of a .295 BA.



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Justin Ruggiano, OF, Miami Marlins
Bet: Under .290 batting average

Ruggiano's a useful stopgap player for a team that squeezes every penny until it begs for mercy, but a .290 batting average is a very aggressive number for Ruggiano. He hit .313 in 2012, getting his first real extended shot in the majors at age 30, but it was also fueled by a .401 BABIP which simply isn't sustainable. He wasn't defying the odds yearly in the minors, either as he hit .291 in parts of six Triple-A seasons.



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Chris Carter, First Base, Houston Astros
Bet: Over 25.5 home runs

ZiPS has him hitting 28 homers and I think it's actually being a bit conservative there. Even with improved plate discipline, Carter's offense is basically one trick: crushing homers. That's a pretty good trick to have, of course, and the Astros aren't a team overflowing with players who will fight off Carter for playing time.



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Hunter Pence, OF, San Francisco Giants
Bet: Under .285 average, under 23.5 home runs (separate wagers)

Pence has regularly been around 23 homers (his career totals are 25, 25, 25, 22, 24), but he'll also play his 2013 in the worst hitters' environment of his career. Pence has only beaten .285 twice, just once since his 2007 rookie campaign, and AT&T Park won't do him any favors.



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Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants
Bet: Over 199.5 strikeouts

Even in the worst season of his career, Lincecum still managed 190 strikeouts, so if you think he's going to bounce back at all from an ugly 2012, he's got a very good shot to beat that number. The Giants are paying him a lot this season, and as we saw with year-after-year of lousy pitching from Barry Zito without the slightest threat to his job in the regular season, the team's got a stubborn streak when big money's involved. There's no Dylan Bundy or Zack Wheeler (sorry) in the system to push Lincecum out if he has another down year.



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Matt Harrison, SP; Yu Darvish, SP, Texas Rangers
Bet: Over 13.5 wins; over 14.5 wins

I'm fine with both of these Ranger hurlers beating their win over/unders. The Rangers have a problematic fifth-starter position, but that doesn't directly affect Harrison or Darvish. No reason to be grumpy on the two best pitchers on a team likely heading in the 90-win neighborhood.



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Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Cleveland Indians
Bet: Over 3.90 ERA

We sometimes see a flash of the old Ubaldo, but we've seen a lot more of the new one. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he channels that old 2010 magic, but I'm certainly not going to take a 3.90 ERA as the midpoint expectation for Jimenez. ZiPS has him about 1 in 4 of hitting that ERA and you don't want to take the under here if you essentially need two consecutive coin flips rather than one.
 

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