On The Hop's 2013 MLB Picks

OnTheHop · Mar 31, 2013

The last two years have not been great, losing a few units. Results from last year are here: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=900319&page=4

I've changed a few things in my approach this year and believe that will make a difference. Best of luck to everyone this season.

All plays are listed pitchers unless otherwise noted.

0-0, EVEN

Houston Astros +140, 1st 5 only, 1/1.4: This is not the same Rangers team without Hamilton and Young. Additionally Norris was an absolute stud at home. I expect the Astros to be better than most people think. Porter will have them playing hard every night and with one of their few national games, I think the Astros come out hot tonight.

OnTheHop · Apr 1, 2013

Playing more favorites today than normal. A lot of - numbers on both sides of the card today.

1-0, +1.4

ML Parlay, Washington Nationals & Los Angeles Dodgers, 1/1.33
Seattle Mariners -110, 1.1/1: King Felix has been dominant on opening day and does well against the A's and you can rarely get him at such a small number. I like what the Mariners have done with their lineup this year and even though I am a big Anderson fan I will back the road team.
Detroit Tigers & Minnesota Twins U7 -115, 1.15/1: How many runs can that Twins lineup score against Verlander? Throw in the fact that it is about 2 degrees in Minnesota and I like the under.
Philadelphia Phillies -105, 1.05/1: Hamels has dominated the Braves and the only guy that has done anything against him, McCann is out. Also I like what Revere brings to the table with a healthy Utley and Howard.
Chicago Cubs & Pittsburgh Pirates U7 -105, 1.05/1: Take a look at how Samardzja and Burnett have done against the opponent. Not a lot of pop in either lineup either. Hoping to avoid the one big inning and stay under the number.

OnTheHop · Apr 2, 2013

Good start. Big deal, it's like being the leader of a marathon after the first step.

5-1 +5.68

Arizona Diamondbacks -114, 1.14/1: Like what I have read about and seen from Cahill. He is in shape and threw it great in Spring Training. It looks like the DBacks have found something with their offense and I look for them to keep it going tonight.
ML Parlay, Milwaukee Brewers & Tampa Bay Rays, 1/1.65

L3G3NDARY · Apr 2, 2013

Gl today and the rest of the season bud!

OnTheHop · Apr 3, 2013

Thanks L3...that sounds was me crashing back to Earth! Whoops.

5-3 +3.54

Pittsburgh Pirates -134, 1.34/1: This is on the upper end of where I will play a favorite but I really like the matchup. Rodriguez is very underrated and to me Jackson has been a product of his teams. Getting value due to the Cubs Opening Day win.
San Diego Padres & New York Mets U7 -110, 1.1/1: I'm a big fan of Harvey's and I expect he throws it well tonight. The Mets Opening Day explosion was a fluke, that number will not produce at those levels all year and Richard has been good against the Mets.
Houston Astros +1.5 -110, 1.1/1: First time I have ever played a + RL. Humber actually has good numbers against Texas and I think the Astros come out fired up after almost being no hit (perfect game) last night. I'll take the extra run just for some protection.

OnTheHop · Apr 4, 2013

Hopefully no one is reading this s--t because my feel is not great right now. Playing more dogs today...finally.

6-4 +2.34

Kansas City Royals +110, 1/1.1: This number dropped significantly as I was hitting submit. Nonetheless I really like what Guthrie did at the end of last year and do not trust Floyd at all.
Seattle Mariners +140, 1/1.4: Everything I've read and seen regarding Maurer says he is the real deal. First time Oakland sees him and it's getaway day. I'll take my chances on with a big + number.
New York Yankees -124, 1.24/1: I know it is game 3 and how could game 3 be a big game? When you have lost the first two to your rivals and you play under the NY microscope it's a big game. Has anyone been a better big game pitcher than Pettitte?

XSPower · Apr 4, 2013

Good luck today my friend!!!

XS

OnTheHop · Apr 4, 2013

Thanks XS. To you as well.

Adding 2, sorry no writeups...stupid job getting in the way.

New York Mets -1.5 +145, 1/1.45
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 +145, 1/1.45

OnTheHop · Apr 5, 2013

Good thing I added those two extra games....idiot. Not sure if I explained my ML parlays....it's a situation where I really like the team(s) but do not feel comfortable on the RL because the + number isn't big enough. Especially comes into play when the home team is favored on the RL and likely to get one less at bat.

8-7 +1.44

Miami Marlins (+140), 1/1.4: I know their bats have been pathetic but the Nats also have excellent pitching. This is a value play for me against a pitcher who has been bad at best. I'll give it a shot at this number.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (+107), 1/1.07: Vargas has been a little underrated pitching for Seattle. He is a good acquisition for the Angels. Holland has been bad at home, bad during the day and bad against the Angels.
ML Parlay, Baltimore Orioles & Tampa Bay Rays (+161), 1/1.61
ML Parlay, Atlanta Braves & Los Angeles Dodgers (+123), 1/1.23

OnTheHop · Apr 6, 2013

Back on the winning track yesterday. A lot of plays today which is rarely a good thing. Hope to keep it going.

11-8 +4.68

Washington Nationals (+104), 1/1.04: Value here due to the debacle yesterday. Detweiler is the consistently overlooked starter in this fantastic rotation. Leake is up and down and I expect the Nats hitters to come through against him.
Houston Astros (+108), 1/1.08: Backing Norris at home. He has the ability to shut the A's down and I don't trust Colon who is approximately 82 years old. Maybe the 'Stros will actually make some contact today.
ML Parlay, Atlanta Braves & Tampa Bay Rays (+159), 1/1.59
St. Louis Cardinals & San Francisco Giants U7 (-115), 1.15/1: Vogelsong has been excellent and I believe Miller is fantastic as well. Cards bats have been silent this year and Giants not usually known for big sticks.
Miami Marlins & New York Mets U7 (-115), 1.15/1: Two pitchers that had strong first starts. Combine that with the usually impotent offense of the Marlins and I like the under here.
New York Yankees & Detroit Tigers U8 (-120), 1.2/1: Scherzer normally dominates the Yankees. This current Yankee lineup just can't hit. If Hughes can keep the Tigers under 6 this one has a good chance to go under.

XSPower · Apr 6, 2013

Thanks and good luck today my friend!!!!

XS

OnTheHop · Apr 7, 2013

Thanks XS...the Braves comeback saved me from a disaster.

13-12 +2.81

Philadelphia Phillies (-117), 1.17/1: Signs of life yesterday from the Phillies. I expect Hamels to bounce back from a poor start in Atlanta and show himself to be the ace of the staff.
Cincinnati Reds & Washington Nationals Un7 (-120), 1.2/1: After yesterday I swore off totals. Then I saw this one and had to give it a shot.
Chicago Cubs (+130), 1.3/1: This was a mistake. Should have played it first 5 only and my brain froze. Really like Samardzja, think he is a true ace and can shut the Braves down. Hudson is going to regress soon. But, as I said, brain freeze made me forget about the Cubs pen. But, I played it so I am posting it.
ML Parlay Baltimore Orioles & Tampa Bay Rays (+145), 1/1.45
Miami Marlins (+115), 1st 5 only, 1/1.15: Really like what I have seen and heard regarding Fernandez. Laffey on the other hand has never been good and I think the Marlins can put up runs against him.
Boston Red Sox (+110), 1st 5 only, 1/1.10: Lester has made a few changes to his setup and delivery and is throwing it well. Toronto has a very powerful lineup but I trust him to hold them down. Dickey is still adjusting to Toronto and his new catchers and I think the Red Sox can scratch a few across against him.

XSPower · Apr 7, 2013

On The Hop said:
Thanks XS...the Braves comeback saved me from a disaster.

13-12 +2.81

Philadelphia Phillies (-117), 1.17/1: Signs of life yesterday from the Phillies. I expect Hamels to bounce back from a poor start in Atlanta and show himself to be the ace of the staff.

Cincinnati Reds & Washington Nationals Un7 (-120), 1.2/1: After yesterday I swore off totals. Then I saw this one and had to give it a shot.

Chicago Cubs (+130), 1.3/1: This was a mistake. Should have played it first 5 only and my brain froze. Really like Samardzja, think he is a true ace and can shut the Braves down. Hudson is going to regress soon. But, as I said, brain freeze made me forget about the Cubs pen. But, I played it so I am posting it.

ML Parlay Baltimore Orioles & Tampa Bay Rays (+145), 1/1.45

Miami Marlins (+115), 1st 5 only, 1/1.15: Really like what I have seen and heard regarding Fernandez. Laffey on the other hand has never been good and I think the Marlins can put up runs against him.

Boston Red Sox (+110), 1st 5 only, 1/1.10: Lester has made a few changes to his setup and delivery and is throwing it well. Toronto has a very powerful lineup but I trust him to hold them down. Dickey is still adjusting to Toronto and his new catchers and I think the Red Sox can scratch a few across against him.

Good luck today my friend!!!!

XS

OnTheHop · Apr 8, 2013

Yesterday was a s--t show. Hope today was better. FYI was really looking at Pirates/Cubs over...two bad daytime pitchers and wind is blowing out. As I was placing it, O9 went from -105 to +105...someone knows something. I am staying away.

Also, made a mistake on the Cubs number yesterday should have been 1/1.3 not the other way around...record below reflects that.
15-16 +.74

New York Yankees (+108), 1/1.08: I know they can't hit right now but Kuroda is an excellent pitcher that has done well against the Indians. Jimenez can be hit, even by this Yankee lineup.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5, +145), 1/1.45: Not only can the Pirates not hit right now, Rodriguez has an awful history against the DBacks. At some point the Bucs will hit, I just hope it isn't tonight.
ML Parlay Boston Red Sox & Kansas City Royals (+190), 1/1.9

OnTheHop · Apr 9, 2013

Might have actually cost me when Rodriguez left the Bucs game. DBacks traditionally crush him. Oh well, still a winning day.

17-17 +2.72

Toronto Blue Jays & Detroit Tigers UNDER 8 (-105), 1.05/1: Two very underrated pitchers that have done well during day games.
Oakland A's & Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim OVER 7 1/2 (+105), 1/1.05: Two pitchers that were bad in the Spring and had rough first outings. Wilson has not been the same since the All Star break of last year and there is enough offense on both of these teams to push this over.
ML Parlay Philadelphia Phillies & Washington Nationals (+151), 1/1.51
ML Parlay Kansas City Royals & Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (+185), 1/1.85

OnTheHop · Apr 10, 2013

Played this, record update and more to come later:

Toronto Blue Jays & Detroit Tigers NO Run in the 1st Inning (-105), 1.05/1

OnTheHop · Apr 10, 2013

Somehow scratched out a winning day yesterday. Made the above play earlier, here are the rest of today's plays:

19-19 +3.23

Tampa Bay Rays (+115), 1/1.15: Moore is going to be a stud and Holland is going to be, well, Holland. When I can get an ace like Moore at + money I'll try it.
Milwaukee Brewers (-117), 1.17/1: Lohse quietly goes about his business as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Brewers got off to a rough start but they are so much better than the Cubs, especially with Feldman on the hill.
ML Parlay San Francisco Giants & Atlanta Braves (+181), 1/1.81
Washington Nationals (-1.5, +130), 1/1.3: Zimmerman often gets overlooked due to Gio and Strasburg but he is really, really good. The Nats have had limited AB's against Floyd but those who have seen him, hit him.
Pittsburgh Pirates & Arizona Diamondbacks NO Run in the 1st inning (-110), 1.1/1

OnTheHop · Apr 11, 2013

Even with the two stupid NO run plays that lost at exactly the same time, somehow scratched out a winning day. Hopefully it keeps going:

22-21 +5.34

Baltimore Orioles (+110), 1/1.1: Playing against Aceves who is starting for the first time in a long time. Tillman was very underrated for the O's last year and they have the better lineup as well.
ML Parlay Los Angeles Dodgers & Seattle Mariners (+158), 1/1.58

XSPower · Apr 11, 2013

On The Hop said:
Even with the two stupid NO run plays that lost at exactly the same time, somehow scratched out a winning day. Hopefully it keeps going:

22-21 +5.34

Baltimore Orioles (+110), 1/1.1: Playing against Aceves who is starting for the first time in a long time. Tillman was very underrated for the O's last year and they have the better lineup as well.
ML Parlay Los Angeles Dodgers & Seattle Mariners (+158), 1/1.58

Good luck today my friend!!!!

XS

OnTheHop · Apr 12, 2013

Thanks XS. No plays today, card does nothing for me.

23-22 +5.44

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