Boston -102 over N.Y. YANKEES
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Yankees over/under win total for the year is 86. If you make one wager in that department this season it should be for the Yankees to go under, as there is about a 5% chance of New York winning 87 games. In fact, we’re suggesting the Yanks finish last in the AL East. The Yanks said farewell to Rafael Soriano, Nick Swisher and Russell Martin, who all left via free agency, and in their stead added a geriatric brigade of Ichiro Suzuki, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Travis Hafner, giving the Yankees the oldest 40-man roster in baseball. The Yanks also enter the season facing extended stays on the disabled list for Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson and Derek Jeter. For today’s opener, the Yanks will send out the ever reliable C.C. Sabathia but Sabathia showed signs of trouble at the end of last season and ended up having off-season shoulder surgery. This spring, Sabathia threw just 10.2 innings and allowed 14 hits and six runs for a spring ERA of 5.06. Sabathia hit the DL twice last year (groin, elbow), he’s averaged 240 IP for five seasons and his durability is now trending the wrong way. The guy has tremendous skills but he’s unlikely to be sharp on a cold day in New York with just 10 spring innings and coming off shoulder surgery.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Jon Lester is coming off a poor season. Lester also has a disturbing three-year trend of increased HR’s allowed. However, you can’t count this guy out, as his skills are too good to ignore and there could have been some mechanical problems that he’s corrected. Lester noted that he has refined his mechanics to stand taller on the mound, revealing that he started making an effort to correct his posture late last summer. 'I was pitching like a guy who was 5-foot-10 as opposed to 6-foot-4,' Lester said. 'It makes a big difference on the way the ball comes in the zone. Pitching with a greater downward plane, Lester is coming off a brilliant spring in which he threw 24 frames and allowed eight hits and two runs for an ERA of 0.75 while striking out 20 batters and walking just four. Primed to bounce back, Lester’s xERA says correction of strand rate and hr/f will improve results and his groundball rate remains an asset, He’s still a workhorse that could have a big year. Coming off a lousy season, the Red Sox lost their identity a year ago but they made some nice off-season moves that include the acquisition of some scrappy, hard-working vets like Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes, Stephen Drew and Mike Napoli. There's a lot to like about this team and there's no way the Red Sox are going to have as bad a year as they did in 2012. It all starts here on opening day. (Risking 2.04 units to win 2). [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]St. Louis +101 over ARIZONA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]he Cardinals may have been the least busy team in the off-season in the majors and who can blame them? St. Louis will essentially go with the same solid roster as last year and they should contend once again. The Cards are deep and have one of the best farm systems in baseball. St. Louis received huge offensive seasons from Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, David Freese, Allen Craig, and Yadier Molina and there’s nothing suggesting that group won’t produce again. Enter Adam Wainwright for today’s opener. Wainwright’s ERA says he took a half-season to shake off Tommy John surgery rust but skills say he was sharp all year. Wainwright’s strand rate and first half hr/f did in his ERA last year but everything else screamed "elite." His strikeout rate, control and groundball rates were all at elite levels. At 31, Wainwright is still getting better as he remains one of the best and most reliable starters in the game. As a dog, pitching for this team, Wainwright and the Cardinals offer up nothing but value.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
By contrast, the D-Backs had a complete overhaul in the offseason. Gone from the Snakes are OF Justin Upton, OF Chris Young, C Henry Blanco and pitchers, Matt Albers, Takashi Saito, Bryan Shaw and Trevor Bauer. Joining the D-Backs, 3B/1B Eric Chavez, 3B Martin Prado, 1B/OF Eric Hinske, OF Cody Ross, OF Gerardo Parra and pitchers, Heath Bell (stiff) Brandon McCarthy and Tony Sipp. Did they get better? We think not. After posting an ERA over 4 last year, Ian Kennedy is expected to do better this season. We can’t argue with that, as Kennedy’s skills showed no erosion from previous years but his luck was much worse. Still, he’s not on the same level as Adam Wainwright. Kennedy has a fly-ball bias profile (42% fly-ball rate, 38% ground-ball rate) and at this park, that poses a problem. Kennedy also had a shaky spring with a 0-2 record in 17.1 innings with an ERA of 4.67. The D-Backs may need some time to gel and to evaluate exactly where they are. The Cardinals know exactly what they have, that being a solid line-up with few flaws and an ace starting the opener. Wrong side favored.[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important] (Risking 2 units). [/FONT][/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
Kansas City +125 over CHICAGO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The White Sox were one of last year’s biggest surprises. With expectations low, Chicago was in first place for 117 days last summer before a meltdown in the final two weeks of the season. We’re not so sure they’ll have as much success this season. To begin, they are without A.J. Pierzynski for the first time in years, leaving the catching duties to Tyler Flowers. Flowers has just 273 major-league AB’s and is a career .205 hitter. The South Side will miss Pierzynski’s bat, his leadership and his presence in the dugout. Offensively, the club is still veteran heavy led by Paul Konerko, Alex Rios and bust slugger Adam Dunn. Dunn is the biggest rally killer and stiff in the majors. Chris Sale is a true ace. He went 17-8 with a 3.05 ERA and made the All-Star Game in his first season as a starter but was just 6-6 after the break with a 4.32 ERA. Make no mistake, the kid has nasty stuff and is even a potential Cy Young award winner but we can’t get excited about Chicago’s position players and Sale may not get the run support he needs to win games when facing strong starters like James Shields.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
In an attempt to bolster their starting rotation, the Royals traded away a big part of their future in exchange for Shields and Wade Davis (RHP, KC). Shields, who has averaged more than 220 innings over the past six seasons, adds some stability to a rotation full of question marks. He is coming off of a season in which he recorded a career best strikeout rate and 52% ground ball rate, while maintaining his typical pinpoint control. While his defense and home park won't be quite as accommodating, moving out of the American League East should provide a counterbalance. Expect more stellar work from Shields in 2013. Behind the plate, the Royals have a potential superstar in Salvador Perez. Perez only played in 76 games following knee surgery to start the year but still batted .301 with 11 home runs. Despite catching just 74 games, Perez executed a major league-best five pickoffs, two more than anyone else. He now has eight pickoffs, which is already a career record for a Royals catcher. We’re counting on the Royals to keep this close and perhaps even have the lead when the starters exit. With a take-back of +129 and with the better offense, the Royals, a team that could contend for a wild-card spot this season, offers up some nice value here. [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important](Risking 2 units). [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Chicago +110 over PITTSBURGH
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]A.J. Burnett gets the opening day start for the Pirates after surprising everyone with 16 wins and a 3.51 ERA last year. At age 36 and expectations higher, expect regression. Burnett has traditionally been a slow starter and he had a brutal spring, going 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in just 11 innings pitched. The Pirates picked up Yankee castoff Russell Martin and the Martin/Burnett battery didn’t fare so well in New York in 2011. The Pirates have some nice pieces in place but their offense could be somewhat unproductive and they’ll face one of the more exciting young pitchers in the game in Jeff Samardzija.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Samardzija developed into a legit rotation anchor after the All-Star Break in 2012. From July to the end of the year, Samardzija skills were electric. An outstanding strikeout rate, a ground-ball bias profile, much fewer walks, and an average fastball velocity of 95 mph assures us that this guy is on the rise. He is now throwing four different pitches at least 10% of the time, 95 mph fastball (54%), 85 mph slider (14%), 92 mph cutter (11%), 86 mph splitter (19%). With overpowering raw stuff and a varied arsenal, Samardzija's growth this season will be the real deal. He’s undervalued right now but that’s not going to last long and now is the time to capitalize. [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important](Risking 2 units). [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
[/FONT]
[/FONT]
