MLB tuesday discussion thread for 4.2.2013

gynecologist · Apr 1, 2013

7:10 pm

Pitchers

RunLine

Total

MoneyLn

3405	Colorado Rockies	J De La Rosa -L		-180		-120	+130
3406	Milwaukee Brewers	M Estrada -R	-1½	+160	8	+100	-140

8:40 pm

Pitchers

RunLine

Total

MoneyLn

3407	St Louis Cardinals	J Garcia -L		-200		-115	+110
3408	Arizona Diamondbacks	T Cahill -R	-1½	+170	9	-105	-120

9:10 pm (MLB)

Pitchers

RunLine

Total

MoneyLn

3409	San Francisco Giants	M Bumgarner -L		-230		-120	-103
3410	Los Angeles Dodgers	H J Ryu -L	-1½	+190	6½	+100	-107

2:10 pm

Pitchers

RunLine

Total

MoneyLn

3411	Baltimore Orioles	J Hammel -R		-155		-105	+155
3412	Tampa Bay Rays	D Price -L	-1½	+135	7	-115	-165

6:05 pm

Pitchers

RunLine

Total

MoneyLn

3413	Cleveland Indians	J Masterson -R		-145		-105	+155
3414	Toronto Blue Jays	R A Dickey -R	-1½	+125	8	-115	-165

7:10 pm

Pitchers

RunLine

Total

MoneyLn

3415	Texas Rangers	Y Darvish -R	-1½	-115	8		-182
3416	Houston Astros	L Harrell -R		-105			+172

9:05 pm

Pitchers

RunLine

Total

MoneyLn

3417	Seattle Mariners	H Iwakuma -R		-175			+130
3418	Oakland Athletics	J Parker -R	-1½	+155	7		-140

gynecologist · Apr 2, 2013

Not sure about this Ryu..

baseballmvp25 · Apr 2, 2013

gynecologist said:
Not sure about this Ryu..

Thinkin same thing and bum from giants is solid

camy · Apr 2, 2013

Hyun-Jin Ryu. Korean rookie. Pitched a decent spring. Last outing faced 12 Angels, retired all 12. 3.29 ERA in 27 innings with 27 K's. Five time strike out champ in Korean Baseball Organization. Mattingly got in the box against Ryu back in February and gave him the thumbs up. For what it's worth, Mattingly said 6'2 255 lb Ryu Reminded him of Sid Fernandez. Bumgarner 2-0 2.29 in 20 inniongs this spring. Last start pitched 4 shutout innings against Texas in 2-1 victory. Going to play Under7 whatever the vig is for a play on Tuesday.

atlantic10 · Apr 2, 2013

Very few pitchers from Japan have long term success in the States.

These arent minor league hitters they are facing...

gynecologist · Apr 2, 2013

Garcia struggles on the road..

Lurkage · Apr 2, 2013

What are we expecting out of the dick man this year? He had a great year last year, but not like he has a long track record of success either. The knuckle baller is such an odd beast. I think pitching indoors will actually hurt him in the long run wind can make that thing dance, I know good or bad but another factor that hitters have to have in their heads.

Soriano12 · Apr 2, 2013

atlantic10 said:
Very few pitchers from Japan have long term success in the States.

These arent minor league hitters they are facing...

Guess it's a good thing then, that he is Korean. And people in the States imo tend to underestimate the level of play in the KBL & Japan, especially the pitchers usually are fundamental sound, even more so the top guys (and in the end it's only them, who make the jump over).
And similar to Darvish a well-rounded young pitcher. Finished spring very strong and especially early on the "unknown" should help him, would expect some form of downward trend around May, when the league has better scouting reports on him or when teams even get into the box against him for the 2nd or 3rd game.
Giants hit LHP pretty well last year though, so they might actually fare ok, still would go with the under since imo within the 1st few games, pitcher's usually are doing better than most hitters, still searching for their rhythm.
Imo SF will struggle to get much offense going the first 3-4 innings, just hope that Mattingly goes to his bullpen early enough once Ryu shows signs of fatigue. Bumgarner has been very good vs LAD & the new guys like Adrian or Crawford are favorable matchups (Lefty vs Lefty). Don't expect much offense, also a night game this time around (ball usually doesn't carry that well).

Soriano12 · Apr 2, 2013

gynecologist said:
Garcia struggles on the road..

As does Cahill at home ;-)
Harrell also pretty strong home guy, like Norris. Won't touch those two games, though.

Thinking about SEA over 3 team total (besides the under @LA):
Parker struggling with his control at times, prone to the longball in spring, horrible spring performance, got hit pretty good by SEA in their 2nd encounter last year and agree with Gyno, that SEA team is much improved, like their offense (even though they struggled yesterday). Parker was great @OAK last year, but just doesn't seem to be in the same form (at least just yet), also a TT of 3.0 -110 for an AL road team is Cy Young territory, usually reserved to the likes of Verlander ...and I don't care if it's an extremely pitcher friendly park, but even pitching @OAK doesn't put Parker into that group...was expecting more of a 3.5 line around +105

tex191 · Apr 2, 2013

Lurkage said:
What are we expecting out of the dick man this year? He had a great year last year, but not like he has a long track record of success either. The knuckle baller is such an odd beast. I think pitching indoors will actually hurt him in the long run wind can make that thing dance, I know good or bad but another factor that hitters have to have in their heads.

Actually think he ends up with and under .500 record and high 4 ERA.

Lurkage · Apr 2, 2013

Ishikawa is not one of those guys that just has a funky delivery with nothing to back it up. He has a very normal delivery so it will be on the merits of his "stuff", which from what I have seen is pretty solid. Where as guys in the past like Nomo it took a few times to see him and once they knew where to look for the ball it was over. I am not saying cy young or 20 game winner stuff but I think he can be an effective middle of the rotation starter. As long as he can get his off speed stuff over for strikes, if not he will have issues.

Lurkage · Apr 2, 2013

tex191 said:
Actually think he ends up with and under .500 record and high 4 ERA.

Tend to agree I think he caught lighting in a botle last year and look for some regression here.

gynecologist · Apr 2, 2013

Definitely value on the Indians... They spent a lot of money too..

Probably have the better bp.. Blue jays might need a while to truly click...

Soriano12 · Apr 2, 2013

Lurkage said:
I am not saying cy young or 20 game winner stuff but I think he can be an effective middle of the rotation starter. As long as he can get his off speed stuff over for strikes, if not he will have issues.

+1
Liked him in Japan, has a variety of pitches and usually great control. Won't overpower anybody, but especially with SEAs really good (infield) defense, he should be a decent #3 or #4 guy.
Also one of the guys where I will hardly ever make a bet without knowing who's going to call the balls/strikes: Similar to guys like Glavine, if he gets a zone like the one by Eddings or Miller, he'll just paint the corners and keep extending the zone, thereby being hardly hittable at all. On the other hand with a rather small zone, like McClelland, he's probably in for a long day since his stuff isn't overpowering, doesn't get that many swings & misses and has to pitch more over the plate than he wants to...
Imo with pitchers like Iwakuma this is more important than with guys, who rely more on movement & velocity rather than making a living on pinpoint control.

Soriano12 · Apr 2, 2013

gynecologist said:
Definitely value on the Indians... They spent a lot of money too..

Probably have the better bp.. Blue jays might need a while to truly click...

Won't touch it, but to me it would also be CLE or nothing: Will watch & see how Dickey performs @TOR first (Rogers centre & his HR allowed don't match...) and Masterson, although his numbers against the likes of Bautista aren't really good, has some really great splits (in very few games) against TOR the last few years: Last year f.e. 2GS, 15IP and gave up just 1R, ERA 0.6...no way he should be that big of a dog, esp. since CLE on paper seems to have a slightly better pen, too, and their offense should be improved (although I'd give the advantage to TOR in that department)

akphidelt · Apr 2, 2013

Before last year Dickey had a career 41-50 record. I don't know what happened to him last year but im fading the shit out of him! Go Indians!

MIKEY.1TIME · Apr 2, 2013

today is the one day that tampa will sell out all year..longoria healthy and there is no way baltimore is going to win all those one run games like they did last year which inflated their record..i love price today...

Soriano12 · Apr 2, 2013

akphidelt said:
Before last year Dickey had a career 41-50 record. I don't know what happened to him last year but im fading the shit out of him! Go Indians!

Wouldn't base any fade on W/L records by pitchers, imo a pitcher's record is way to random: If you look at Dickeys numbers after reinventing himself as a knuckleballer and going to NY, he compiled a 2.95 ERA in 3 years over the course of 616.2IP, so last year's 2.73 ERA is barely above average. Only thing that really stands out is his 1.05 WHIP, which in part might be credited to better control of the knuckleball, but imo is more likely to regress back towards the 1.15 - 1.20 area and his K numbers, which went from 0.64 to 0.98 per IP, which also shouldn't be maintainable in the AL East (no pitcher batting etc).
Move to AL should cost him and even more the move from Citi into Rogers Centre, but he certainly wasn't a 1yr wonder in NY and imo mainly got overlooked because the Mets didn't give him any run support and plain out sucked.

DJ2 · Apr 2, 2013

i think the two best values are the Os and Indians...blue jays are over priced and the public loves david price so he tends to be expensive...on a pure value basis Os and Indians look like plays to me

varkeyboy · Apr 2, 2013

Take the M's +130 to da bank!

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