[h=1]Best, worst spring training moves[/h][h=3]Why starting Jackie Bradley Jr. was smart; acquiring Vernon Wells wasn't[/h]
By Dan Szymborski | ESPN Insider
While the games didn't start officially counting until Sunday night's Houston Astros-Texas Rangers game, many decisions made in spring training will have an effect on a team's bottom line. Some decisions will inevitably backfire, such as the expansion Miami Marlins making Scott Pose their leadoff hitter back in 1993 based solely on a hot spring. But if it works out, as did the conversion of C.J. Wilson back to a starting pitcher in 2010, you can see a solid dividend in the regular season. So, which teams scored with their March decisions and which fell short?
GOOD -- Jackie Bradley Jr. making the final 25-man roster
While you don't always want to rush your top prospects, you do want to provide them sufficient challenge. Some Triple-A experience would not have hurt Bradley, but the fact is the Red Sox had a weak left-field situation and Bradley can help the team right now. Unlike a lot of young lefty hitters, southpaws didn't give him trouble in the minors, as he managed to hit .299/.401/.496 against them in 2012. Don't be alarmed by the 2011 stats considering he was suffering from problems in his wrist that have resolved at this point.
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BAD -- Jason Bay over Casper Wells
There's little star upside in Wells, but he's a .246/.317/.435, 110 OPS+ hitter in the majors in 656 plate appearances and can at least fake center field. That makes him a reasonable stopgap starter or solid fourth outfielder, something that's especially useful for a team that's still rebuilding as the Mariners are. Instead, the M's chose to keep 34-year-old Jason Bay, who has hit .234/.318/.369 over the past three years (including a woeful .165/.237/.299 in 2012) and should only ever play center field if manager Eric Wedge is playing a rather odd game of Truth or Dare. Even better, if Bay suddenly becomes a plus on the field, he's a free agent at the end of the year, while Wells is under team control for four years.
GOOD -- Yasiel Puig to the minors
I'm in favor of challenging your best young players, but Puig's situation doesn't quite mirror Bradley's with the Red Sox. Puig torched spring training pitchers, but unlike Bradley, he hasn't yet played full-time in the minors, getting only 95 plate appearances last year, none above A-ball. If spring is any indication, he'll be up soon, but a little bit of caution makes sense in this case.
BAD -- Robbie Ross to the bullpen
After Martin Perez broke his forearm, Ross became the front-runner to be the No. 5 starter, ahead of Justin Grimm, Nick Tepesch and Randy Wells. Despite pitching quite well in the spring, the Rangers suddenly changed course and announced he would be in the bullpen, putting the No. 5 spot into Tepesch mode. The Rangers are missing an opportunity to create another solid starter, something that can come in handy if Colby Lewis doesn't come back as quickly as hoped. Tepesch throws strikes and keeps the ball down and we'd see more of him in the future, but he's also a pitcher without explosive stuff who had mixed results in Double-A. Fortune favors the bold and the Rangers were anything but here.
GOOD -- Justin Verlander and Buster Posey contracts
Both are in the middle of careers that are in Hall of Fame trajectories and these contracts keep both superstars in their respective uniforms for the bulk of their productive careers. Verlander doesn't just eat innings, he devours them, and Posey's bat is good enough that he can be moved to first base down the road if he starts to break down. It will make future free-agent markets less exciting for the rest of us -- the bidding war for Verlander would be frightening -- but it's the smart move for their teams.
BAD -- New York Yankees acquire Vernon Wells
Without second-guessing the Yankees' choosing to be quiet this winter for luxury tax reasons, this was a mistake, even given the rash of injuries in New York. The options for major league outfielders are usually ugly by the time we hit March, but if you're getting a below-average player, at least don't get one you have to pay for. Nobody in their right mind would even give Wells a two-year, $13 million contract if he had been a free agent. Wells isn't really any better than Juan Rivera at this point and is probably more valuable to the Yankees playing for the Angels, given that they might actually play him once in a while.
GOOD -- Jake Arrieta to Baltimore Orioles rotation
The projections for Arrieta, including his ZiPS projection, are quite mediocre, but I still retain a belief that Arrieta is a breakout candidate. His FIP(4.05 in 2012) was well below his actual 6.20 ERA, he throws hard, has good movement on his pitches, and keeps the ball down. On that last point, having Manny Machado at third base instead of Mark Reynolds or Wilson Betemit will help Arrieta look a lot better.
BAD - Tyson Ross over Andrew Cashner in rotation
If the Padres are to compete in the next couple of years, they need their pitchers returning from injury to step up and solidify a very overrated rotation (thanks to Petco Park). Cory Luebke, Joe Wieland and Casey Kelly are all unavailable (Kelly guaranteed to be out for the entirety of 2013), but Cashner showed his thumb is healthy and it's important for San Diego's future to see what he can do as a full-time starter. That's not going to happen in the bullpen.
By Dan Szymborski | ESPN Insider
While the games didn't start officially counting until Sunday night's Houston Astros-Texas Rangers game, many decisions made in spring training will have an effect on a team's bottom line. Some decisions will inevitably backfire, such as the expansion Miami Marlins making Scott Pose their leadoff hitter back in 1993 based solely on a hot spring. But if it works out, as did the conversion of C.J. Wilson back to a starting pitcher in 2010, you can see a solid dividend in the regular season. So, which teams scored with their March decisions and which fell short?
GOOD -- Jackie Bradley Jr. making the final 25-man roster
While you don't always want to rush your top prospects, you do want to provide them sufficient challenge. Some Triple-A experience would not have hurt Bradley, but the fact is the Red Sox had a weak left-field situation and Bradley can help the team right now. Unlike a lot of young lefty hitters, southpaws didn't give him trouble in the minors, as he managed to hit .299/.401/.496 against them in 2012. Don't be alarmed by the 2011 stats considering he was suffering from problems in his wrist that have resolved at this point.
<OFFER>
BAD -- Jason Bay over Casper Wells
There's little star upside in Wells, but he's a .246/.317/.435, 110 OPS+ hitter in the majors in 656 plate appearances and can at least fake center field. That makes him a reasonable stopgap starter or solid fourth outfielder, something that's especially useful for a team that's still rebuilding as the Mariners are. Instead, the M's chose to keep 34-year-old Jason Bay, who has hit .234/.318/.369 over the past three years (including a woeful .165/.237/.299 in 2012) and should only ever play center field if manager Eric Wedge is playing a rather odd game of Truth or Dare. Even better, if Bay suddenly becomes a plus on the field, he's a free agent at the end of the year, while Wells is under team control for four years.
GOOD -- Yasiel Puig to the minors
I'm in favor of challenging your best young players, but Puig's situation doesn't quite mirror Bradley's with the Red Sox. Puig torched spring training pitchers, but unlike Bradley, he hasn't yet played full-time in the minors, getting only 95 plate appearances last year, none above A-ball. If spring is any indication, he'll be up soon, but a little bit of caution makes sense in this case.
BAD -- Robbie Ross to the bullpen
After Martin Perez broke his forearm, Ross became the front-runner to be the No. 5 starter, ahead of Justin Grimm, Nick Tepesch and Randy Wells. Despite pitching quite well in the spring, the Rangers suddenly changed course and announced he would be in the bullpen, putting the No. 5 spot into Tepesch mode. The Rangers are missing an opportunity to create another solid starter, something that can come in handy if Colby Lewis doesn't come back as quickly as hoped. Tepesch throws strikes and keeps the ball down and we'd see more of him in the future, but he's also a pitcher without explosive stuff who had mixed results in Double-A. Fortune favors the bold and the Rangers were anything but here.
GOOD -- Justin Verlander and Buster Posey contracts
Both are in the middle of careers that are in Hall of Fame trajectories and these contracts keep both superstars in their respective uniforms for the bulk of their productive careers. Verlander doesn't just eat innings, he devours them, and Posey's bat is good enough that he can be moved to first base down the road if he starts to break down. It will make future free-agent markets less exciting for the rest of us -- the bidding war for Verlander would be frightening -- but it's the smart move for their teams.
BAD -- New York Yankees acquire Vernon Wells
Without second-guessing the Yankees' choosing to be quiet this winter for luxury tax reasons, this was a mistake, even given the rash of injuries in New York. The options for major league outfielders are usually ugly by the time we hit March, but if you're getting a below-average player, at least don't get one you have to pay for. Nobody in their right mind would even give Wells a two-year, $13 million contract if he had been a free agent. Wells isn't really any better than Juan Rivera at this point and is probably more valuable to the Yankees playing for the Angels, given that they might actually play him once in a while.
GOOD -- Jake Arrieta to Baltimore Orioles rotation
The projections for Arrieta, including his ZiPS projection, are quite mediocre, but I still retain a belief that Arrieta is a breakout candidate. His FIP(4.05 in 2012) was well below his actual 6.20 ERA, he throws hard, has good movement on his pitches, and keeps the ball down. On that last point, having Manny Machado at third base instead of Mark Reynolds or Wilson Betemit will help Arrieta look a lot better.
BAD - Tyson Ross over Andrew Cashner in rotation
If the Padres are to compete in the next couple of years, they need their pitchers returning from injury to step up and solidify a very overrated rotation (thanks to Petco Park). Cory Luebke, Joe Wieland and Casey Kelly are all unavailable (Kelly guaranteed to be out for the entirety of 2013), but Cashner showed his thumb is healthy and it's important for San Diego's future to see what he can do as a full-time starter. That's not going to happen in the bullpen.
