| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.38 |
| Last 30 Days | 3 | 3 | 0.00 | -0.18 |
| Season to Date | 3 | 3 | 0.00 | -0.18 |
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All plays are 2 units.
Kansas City/CHICAGO over 7½ -103
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]U.S. Cellular Field is a tightly-packed park that is good for power hitters. The 330 and 335 corners in left and right are common enough but the 375 power alleys and 400 foot center field fence receive nice boosts from prevailing winds and no wall in the park is higher than eight feet. Narrow foul areas also work to help hitters remain in the game. It’s no secret that this is a hitter’s park and that’s especially troubling for Earvin Santana. Pitchers that give up two home runs per game don't last long. Those bombs plus poor command caused a first half mess. Santana’s control returned in the second half, giving hitters even juicier pitches, resulting in a nearly identical mess. Santana’s fly-ball/ground-ball rate in in the second last season was 40%/40%. That’s reason for more concern and an eye-opening 19% of those left the yard.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Jake Peavy is a reliable starter with solid skills. He posted a 3.10 ERA at The Cell last season and even if he duplicates that here, this one is still likely to go over. What’s even more interesting is that he went 0-3 against the Royals last year with a 5.68 ERA. Current Royals have 55 hits in 177 career AB’s (.322) against Peavy with a .474 slugging percentage and a .836 on-base percentage. The posted total in the opener with Chris Sale and James Shields starting was 7. Yeah, the final was 1-0 but this is a new day with different pitchers and the posted total is a half run more with at least one pitcher that is on a serious decline and another one with a poor history against the opponent. It’s also worth noting that Peavy threw just eight innings this spring and allowed 12 hits and seven runs for an ERA of 7.88. [/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]Chicago +120 over PITTSBURGH
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Wandy Rodriguez seems like a pretty steady 3.50-3.75 ERA, 1.25-1.30 WHIP target. He has been right around those levels for each of the last five seasons. That said, there are reasons to be concerned. His strikeout rate has trended the wrong way for five seasons running. His swinging strike rate the last four years has also declined from 9.2% to 8.8% to 8.5% and to 7.0% last year. One should never ignore a skills decline over a lengthy period and that’s precisely what we see with Rodriguez. There's significant downside here and it’s worth noting that Rodriguez threw just five innings the entire spring, making him a prime fade candidate.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
Edwin Jackson is healthy and ready to go. He had a productive spring, throwing 24 innings while striking out 20 batters and walking just six. His [/FONT]ERA in the spring was 5.25 but don’t put too much weight on that, as he was experimenting with some new pitches. For the most part he looked strong and sharp. Jackson has been consistently good for years. His low win total from last season was the result of poor run support. Jackson’s skills in the second half were elite with a 51% ground-ball rate and the best strikeout and walk rates of his career. Jackson’s 12.2% swinging strike rate was among the MLB elite in 2012 and it increased by 2.9% vs. 2011. Jackson is just 29 years old and has the goods to duplicate the 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP breakout season he had in 2009. [/FONT]
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San Francisco/LOS ANGELES over 7 +102
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]7 is commonly a total you see when guys like Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw are pitching. To match the total of 7 when those guys are throwing to the two stiffs throwing here is something we can take full advantage of. It’s a bad number, pure and simple. The Dodgers spent loads of cash between August of last season and the beginning of this year and part of their spending included the $34M Josh Beckett is owed over the next two seasons. You can be excused if you just choked on your yogurt. Beckett went 7-14 last season with an ERA of 4.65. His paltry win total was not a case of bad luck either, as Beckett’s health and skills has been on a steady decline for years. Beckett finished the spring with a 7.79 ERA and five home runs allowed in 17.1 innings His base skills support a very mild rebound and even that’s a bit of a leap considering he’s a year older and has more miles on his arm.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Then there’s Tim Lincecum. Lincecum's 2012 metamorphosis from elite ace to a struggling back-of-the-rotation starter was sudden and somewhat puzzling but sometimes pitchers lose it and never get it back. Lincecum has showed us nothing that suggests a return to form. Lincecum's rising walk rate finally caught up to him in 2012. Putting more runners on base than usual was the start of his troubles. Batters certainly got better looks at Lincecum in two related ways. First, a high BAA (batting average against) was not the result of a wacky hit rate; second, his average fastball velocity dipped from 92.2 in 2011 to 90.4 in 2012. Lincecum’s spring puts even more doubt in our minds. In his final spring start, Lincecum surrendered five earned runs on five hits and a walk in 4.2 innings against the A's. However, the ugly day actually lowered his spring ERA to 10.57 through 15.1 frames. Chances are one or both of these starters will get lit up here. Of course Dodger Stadium has a way of making bad pitchers look good but both are going to have to be good to keep this one under and the racing form suggests that’s highly unlikely. [/FONT]
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Baltimore +126 over TAMPA BAY
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Rays have been contenders for years, parlaying some outstanding scouting, a strong pitching staff and the will to win into three playoff appearances in the past five seasons. They have the pitching once again to compete but you simply can’t keep losing high end talent and expect positive results every year. The Rays were 11th in runs scored, 13th in hits, 12th in batting average and 11th in slugging percentage among American League teams last season. Now they’re without B.J. Upton, who went off for 51 home runs, 159 runs batted in and 67 stolen bases in the last two years. Jeremy Hellickson is considered to be one of the cornerstones of the Rays staff but we’re not buyers. For the second straight season, Hellickson flipped average skills into a stellar final product, out-pitching his xERA by more than a run. Hellickson’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate over the past two years has been a pedestrian 39%/20%/41%. Those are similar numbers to some pitchers that keep getting sent back down to the minors. Hellickson has become adept at disaster avoidance with a very lucky 82% strand rate over his last 50 starts covering nearly two years. We may be missing something here because luck usually doesn’t hold out for this long but we are suggesting that he’s overvalued again and some regression is forthcoming. You simply can’t keep outpitching your xERA.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Orioles opening day bashing of David Price gives us plenty of optimism that this team was no fluke last year. Wei-Yin Chen is a workhorse that didn't miss a beat in his transition from Japan to the U.S. There were a lot of interesting baseball stories coming out of Baltimore last year but the quiet breakout performance of Wei-Yin Chen is one that continues to fly under the radar. Chen's numbers in Japan suggested he would be a finesse lefty with low MLB upside but he proved to be a sturdy anchor in the Orioles rotation during their improbable pennant chase and subsequent appearance in the playoffs. Chen demonstrated solid skills all season but his control, strikeout rate and command all dramatically improved across the board in the second half. It must be noted that Chen never fanned hitters at this rate in Japan, but unlike other products of the JPL, his strong command of the strike zone has translated quite well to MLB action. Chen's ability to continue to miss bats will be critical to his long term value but right now he looks like one of the breakout sleepers of the 2012 season and we’ll ride him unless he shows us something different. [/FONT]
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St. Louis +104 over ARIZONA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Cardinals rebounded from an ugly opening day loss with a solid 6-1 victory last night. We now get the benefit of a bad line in our favor. A scary line drive off Brandon McCarthy’s head ended his season in September but the shoulder problem that put him on the DL in June is the long-term worry. His control is elite, but MacCarthy doesn't miss many bats and a lucky first half strand % helped mask his xERA issues. In addition, his GB% dipped from 43% in the first half to 35% in the second half. Moving from Oakland to the unforgiving confines of Chase Field could cause gopheritis to be a problem for him again. McCarthy has been a reliable profit producer during the last two seasons, posting a sub-3.50 ERA and sub-1.25 WHIP in both of them. Problem is, his 2012 skills didn't support that level of production. McCarthy can thank the Oakland Coliseum for that but for a pitcher that puts the ball in play, he won’t be thanking Chase Field when he sees his outfielders chasing balls in the gap all night long. McCarthy is serious fade material. Take advantage now.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Lance Lynn transitioned from relief to rotation without a hitch. A 6+ ERA and 1.91 WHIP in August might leave a bad taste but it’s not a concern. Lynn rebounded with elite September. His strikeout rate and good command trends confirm that there's plenty more growth on the horizon. With consistency, addition of a third pitch and a 49% groundball rate, Lynn looks legit as a starter. Life is good when you can take back a tag with Lynn against McCarthy. When you look deep into the numbers, it suggests this is a pitching mismatch and it’s not in Arizona’s favor. [/FONT]
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