you are right......but i'm not going to bet more than my standard bet cause of a good line
the thought of doubling my BR on an 8 point middle is worth the risk.
Lets say the chance of the +10 hitting is 50/50 and the chance of the -2 hitting is 80/20, I think this means I have a 40/60 chance of hitting my middle (without having crunched the #s)
assume my BR is $1000
i'd take 40% of winning half my bankroll ($500) and 60% of losing $50
over an 80% chance of winning ($50) (5% of my bankroll) and 20% of losing $5
well here was My problem with that game. I had bet this game early.. Miami +1.5
I have Sunday's off from work... so I get to do some running around and wasn't in front of my computer.
So I'm in and out all day... get in about 6pm, turn on the computer and see 9's and 9.5's
I'm like WTF is going on ???? check SportsOptions and see James and Wade OUT
so I'm like... what do I do ?? I have to buy back my bet...SA is going blow them Out !
problem with that... what if it lands on 4, 5, 6 or 7...even 8 ( I could lose Both ways !! )
so I decided to just buy back 1/2 my wager. ( turned out to be a Stupid move ) But you never know
Very Tough thing to get out of.... either let it ride or take the chance to buy some of it back.
I took that chance and it Half backfired on me. But I could have lost Both.
In that situation assuming you have no new opinion on the game you should just roll with the bad bet and take the L. Making another -EV bet makes no sense.
@shdw You know what I'd probably do given I had access to unlimitd outs? I'd take team A on the moneyline like -130 for 130 wins 100 lets say. Then team B I'd get like +330 ML for say 40 wins 130. Then have 0 wins 60 on something that is around 75-80% to come through for a good amount.
And since this is a 0 wins X freeroll that likely hits, obviously try to do it for a lot.
$$
