[h=1]How Palmer improves the Cardinals[/h][h=3]Carson Palmer is an upgrade at QB, but can he survive behind Arizona's line?[/h]
By Andy Benoit | Football Outsiders
Carson Palmer is looking for his second fresh start in less than three years after the Oakland Raiders shipped him and a sixth-round pick (No. 176 overall) to Arizona for a seventh-rounder (No. 219) and a conditional pick in 2014. In order to critique this deal, we must first be clear on what, exactly, Palmer is and is not at this point in his 11-year career.
At 33, and with some history of elbow problems, Palmer is no longer the cannon-armed wonder that Cincinnati drafted No. 1 overall in 2003. This isn't to say he has devolved into Chad Pennington; Palmer can still get great velocity on intermediate throws and enough distance on balls downfield. But these once-shining traits of his now only appear in flashes.
The problem is that Palmer has not adjusted his style of play accordingly. As Mike Sando examines near the bottom of this analysis, he has a poor feel for which "spectacular" throws are now ill-advised. More concerning, he struggles through bouts of inaccuracy -- particularly on longer throws. And, while it might not stand out as vividly as it does with some veteran quarterbacks, Palmer's pre-snap blitz recognition is not always sharp.
These are the negatives with Palmer. The positives are that he still has an NFL-quality arm, he generally plays firm in the pocket (more on that shortly) and he has proved capable of efficiently learning new a system.
But how much will he improve the Cardinals in 2013?
<OFFER></OFFER>While Palmer would be a backup for most teams these days, it makes sense that the Cardinals see him as a bridge starter. After all, their other options at quarterback were Drew Stanton, Brian Hoyer and Ryan Lindley. New head coach Bruce Arians had expressed optimism in Stanton's aptitude to start, but there's a reason the 2008 second-rounder has just 12 game appearances in his NFL career. There's also a reason Hoyer was out of football most of last season. And there's a reason the Jets often didn't even keep a safety in coverage when facing the painfully unequipped Lindley in Week 13.
Arizona's need at quarterback was so bad, it almost doesn't matter that Palmer is an imperfect fit for Arians' system, one that is heavy on deep and intermediate route combinations and in which the QB is encouraged to take chances; Palmer can throw for 4,000 yards in it, but he'll also likely have around 20 interceptions. Of course, given what Arizona experienced last season, maybe that's a good thing. At least Palmer's overaggressive nature will result in more balls being forced to Larry Fitzgerald. Last season, none of Arizona's quarterbacks understood that when it comes to a superstar receiver, there's a special, much broader definition of "open." Consequently, Fitzgerald finished with just 798 yards receiving even though the Cardinals' passing attack was built almost entirely around him.
With a true No. 1 receiver like Fitzgerald, Palmer has the go-to option and safety outlet that he sorely missed in Oakland. The concern is that it won't matter because Arizona's porous offensive line won't give him enough time to throw. This is sound logic, but it's also a little incomplete. What many don't understand is that good quarterbacking can negate a lot of offensive line issues. Usually it's just a matter of a quarterback's poise.
The Cardinals will realize this now that they have a veteran like Palmer (even if he isn't the sharpest reader of blitzes). While Palmer at times struggles to make quality throws with defenders crowding him, he is at least willing to step up in the pocket and keep his eyes downfield. This subtle but significant difference from the tuck-and-flee style of Lindley (and others) will lend more stability to the entire offense.
What's more, it's highly unlikely that this offensive line will be as bad in 2013 as it was in 2012. For one, Levi Brown, who missed all of last season with a torn triceps, is back at left tackle. Slow feet have long made Brown one of the worst left tackles in the league, but he still represents an upgrade over D'Anthony Batiste or Nate Potter -- two players who struggled mightily last season.
On the other side, there's hope that last year's fourth-round pick, Bobby Massie, will continue to improve. Massie went from "atrocious" to "bad" to "iffy" as a rookie. If new offensive line coach Harold Goodwin can help him hone his pass-blocking technique (not just footwork, but timing and placement in his initial punch), a lot of Massie's quickness issues will fix themselves.
Teaching good mechanics is just one way the new coaching staff can help Palmer's line; another is through scheme. Ken Whisenhunt and his regime often asked the tackles to pass-block on an island with little help from chip-blockers or protection slides. And Whisenhunt did not call a lot of play-action or misdirection elements that could have naturally slowed a pass rush. (Basically, the Cardinals approached things as if Kurt Warner, with his brilliant pre-snap reads and quick release, was still running the show.) Equally as bad was how no one ever seemed accountable when the same protections kept getting blown.
These problems should abate under Arians. He does a great job alleviating pressure on his linemen with simple things like condensed formations and pre-snap motion. A lot of the routes in his scheme build off one another at various levels, which aids the line because the quarterback can work through his progressions efficiently. Also, expect a few more simplified route designs for Fitzgerald, particularly with option routes underneath off pre-snap motion or inside-outside options at the intermediate levels. These can be proactive counters to double-teams. Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne both had tremendous success with this type of role in Arians' offense.
The use of Fitzgerald will make things easier for second-year receiver Michael Floyd, darting slot receiver Andre Roberts and, perhaps most of all, flexible tight end Rob Housler -- a third-year pro who could become a poor man's Heath Miller (a lot depends on whether his blocking improves enough for the coaches to be truly comfortable with him playing regularly on first and second down).
Even though Palmer will be an upgrade at QB, compared to the rest of the league, the Cardinals still lack talent in a lot of places. For where they were, and for the new system they're looking to run, it made sense to acquire a veteran bridge quarterback like Palmer. He will help them win a couple more games, but don't expect the Cardinals to do better than hovering around .500 in the very tough NFC West this coming season.
By Andy Benoit | Football Outsiders
Carson Palmer is looking for his second fresh start in less than three years after the Oakland Raiders shipped him and a sixth-round pick (No. 176 overall) to Arizona for a seventh-rounder (No. 219) and a conditional pick in 2014. In order to critique this deal, we must first be clear on what, exactly, Palmer is and is not at this point in his 11-year career.
At 33, and with some history of elbow problems, Palmer is no longer the cannon-armed wonder that Cincinnati drafted No. 1 overall in 2003. This isn't to say he has devolved into Chad Pennington; Palmer can still get great velocity on intermediate throws and enough distance on balls downfield. But these once-shining traits of his now only appear in flashes.
The problem is that Palmer has not adjusted his style of play accordingly. As Mike Sando examines near the bottom of this analysis, he has a poor feel for which "spectacular" throws are now ill-advised. More concerning, he struggles through bouts of inaccuracy -- particularly on longer throws. And, while it might not stand out as vividly as it does with some veteran quarterbacks, Palmer's pre-snap blitz recognition is not always sharp.
These are the negatives with Palmer. The positives are that he still has an NFL-quality arm, he generally plays firm in the pocket (more on that shortly) and he has proved capable of efficiently learning new a system.
But how much will he improve the Cardinals in 2013?
<OFFER></OFFER>While Palmer would be a backup for most teams these days, it makes sense that the Cardinals see him as a bridge starter. After all, their other options at quarterback were Drew Stanton, Brian Hoyer and Ryan Lindley. New head coach Bruce Arians had expressed optimism in Stanton's aptitude to start, but there's a reason the 2008 second-rounder has just 12 game appearances in his NFL career. There's also a reason Hoyer was out of football most of last season. And there's a reason the Jets often didn't even keep a safety in coverage when facing the painfully unequipped Lindley in Week 13.
Arizona's need at quarterback was so bad, it almost doesn't matter that Palmer is an imperfect fit for Arians' system, one that is heavy on deep and intermediate route combinations and in which the QB is encouraged to take chances; Palmer can throw for 4,000 yards in it, but he'll also likely have around 20 interceptions. Of course, given what Arizona experienced last season, maybe that's a good thing. At least Palmer's overaggressive nature will result in more balls being forced to Larry Fitzgerald. Last season, none of Arizona's quarterbacks understood that when it comes to a superstar receiver, there's a special, much broader definition of "open." Consequently, Fitzgerald finished with just 798 yards receiving even though the Cardinals' passing attack was built almost entirely around him.
With a true No. 1 receiver like Fitzgerald, Palmer has the go-to option and safety outlet that he sorely missed in Oakland. The concern is that it won't matter because Arizona's porous offensive line won't give him enough time to throw. This is sound logic, but it's also a little incomplete. What many don't understand is that good quarterbacking can negate a lot of offensive line issues. Usually it's just a matter of a quarterback's poise.
The Cardinals will realize this now that they have a veteran like Palmer (even if he isn't the sharpest reader of blitzes). While Palmer at times struggles to make quality throws with defenders crowding him, he is at least willing to step up in the pocket and keep his eyes downfield. This subtle but significant difference from the tuck-and-flee style of Lindley (and others) will lend more stability to the entire offense.
What's more, it's highly unlikely that this offensive line will be as bad in 2013 as it was in 2012. For one, Levi Brown, who missed all of last season with a torn triceps, is back at left tackle. Slow feet have long made Brown one of the worst left tackles in the league, but he still represents an upgrade over D'Anthony Batiste or Nate Potter -- two players who struggled mightily last season.
On the other side, there's hope that last year's fourth-round pick, Bobby Massie, will continue to improve. Massie went from "atrocious" to "bad" to "iffy" as a rookie. If new offensive line coach Harold Goodwin can help him hone his pass-blocking technique (not just footwork, but timing and placement in his initial punch), a lot of Massie's quickness issues will fix themselves.
Teaching good mechanics is just one way the new coaching staff can help Palmer's line; another is through scheme. Ken Whisenhunt and his regime often asked the tackles to pass-block on an island with little help from chip-blockers or protection slides. And Whisenhunt did not call a lot of play-action or misdirection elements that could have naturally slowed a pass rush. (Basically, the Cardinals approached things as if Kurt Warner, with his brilliant pre-snap reads and quick release, was still running the show.) Equally as bad was how no one ever seemed accountable when the same protections kept getting blown.
These problems should abate under Arians. He does a great job alleviating pressure on his linemen with simple things like condensed formations and pre-snap motion. A lot of the routes in his scheme build off one another at various levels, which aids the line because the quarterback can work through his progressions efficiently. Also, expect a few more simplified route designs for Fitzgerald, particularly with option routes underneath off pre-snap motion or inside-outside options at the intermediate levels. These can be proactive counters to double-teams. Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne both had tremendous success with this type of role in Arians' offense.
The use of Fitzgerald will make things easier for second-year receiver Michael Floyd, darting slot receiver Andre Roberts and, perhaps most of all, flexible tight end Rob Housler -- a third-year pro who could become a poor man's Heath Miller (a lot depends on whether his blocking improves enough for the coaches to be truly comfortable with him playing regularly on first and second down).
Even though Palmer will be an upgrade at QB, compared to the rest of the league, the Cardinals still lack talent in a lot of places. For where they were, and for the new system they're looking to run, it made sense to acquire a veteran bridge quarterback like Palmer. He will help them win a couple more games, but don't expect the Cardinals to do better than hovering around .500 in the very tough NFC West this coming season.
