Kentucky Derby 2013 Thoughts

elevenblack301 · Apr 3, 2013

:howdy: Well, guess what time it is ? Yep.....guys and gals, boys and girls......... it's that time of the year............one of the best times of the year if you are a thoroughbred fan.............it's Triple Crown time and the first leg is about one month away......

I am going to post a lot of data, facts , trends, tidbits, etc....etc....in this thread as we come closer to the " big day ", as I have done for the past few years........... and I NEED YOUR HELP. If you have any tidbits, info, or angles or anything for that matter, please post and let us know, so maybe if we put all of our heads together, we may hit an exotic or two come the first Saturday of May.

I will never suggest to any of you to wager this or that... to play this horse or that horse............I will only try to explain and tell you what I like...what I ( my small group of friends the years over ) will be playing...... as we try to cap this amazing race of 3 year olds............... Truly the greatest 2 minutes in sports, in my opinion.

As always, I wish you all the best.............. May God bless you and your families, and let's try and cash some tickets and sign an IRS form or two come May 4.................. Be well all.............

So, who do you like ??????

elevenblack301 · Apr 3, 2013

:think2: Let's start out with some of the dosage numbers for the possible entries.............. here are the top 25 'maybes' , which may get to the gate............ will update any new horses which may enter the picture within the next 2 weeks............ many cappers use these numbers to include or exclude some of the entries................

.........................................................DP ..............DI .....CD

Black Onyx	6 - 2 - 11 - 1 - 0... 2.08... 0.65
Code West	9 - 1 - 19 - 5 - 0... 1.34... 0.41
Den’s Legacy	2 - 4 - 10 - 2 - 0... 1.57 .. 0.33
Departing	5 - 7 - 14 - 0 - 0 .. 2.71... 0.65
Dynamic Sky	3 - 3 - 8 - 0 - 0 ... 2.50... 0.64
Falling Sky	2 - 1 - 8 - 1 - 0.... 1.40 ... 0.33
Flashback	6 - 9 - 11 - 2 - 0 .. 2.73... 0.68
Golden Soul	11 - 5 - 18 - 4 - 0 . 1.92 .. 0.61
Goldencents	1 - 2 - 4 - 1 - 0 .... 1.67 ...0.38
Governor Charlie	1 - 2 - 4 - 0 - 1.... 1.67 ... 0.25
Hear The Ghost	4 - 1 - 5 - 0 - 0.... 3.00.... 0.90
It’s My Lucky Day	4 - 3 - 7 - 0 - 0 ... 3.00.... 0.79
Java’s War	8 - 1 - 10 - 5 - 0.. 1.40.... 0.50
Lines Of Battle	4 - 6 - 17 - 0 - 1.. 1.95.... 0.43
Merit Man	3 - 1 - 8 - 0 - 0.... 2.00 ... 0.58
Mylute	1 - 1 - 4 - 0 - 0.... 2.00.... 0.50
Orb	11 - 12 - 15 - 0 - 2 . 3.21. 0.75
Oxbow	6 - 0 - 8 - 0 - 0...... 2.50.. 0.86
Revolutionary	10 - 8 - 12 - 1 - 1.. 3.00.. 0.78
Speak Logistics	4 - 4 - 8 - 0 - 0 .....3.00 .. 0.75
Uncaptured	1 - 3 - 8 - 0 - 0..... 2.00 .. 0.42
Verrazano	9 - 0 - 17 - 0 - 0... 2.06... 0.69
Vyjack	6 - 0 - 6 - 2 - 0 ... 1.80 ... 0.71
West Hills Giant	3 - 1 - 13 - 0 - 1 .. 1.40 ...0.28
Will Take Charge	6 - 10 - 8 - 0 - 2 .. 3.33 .. 0.69

joeyp · Apr 3, 2013

lines of battle just ran a great race in dubai at the world cup day

'OlFarter · Apr 4, 2013

I personally think ORB hasn't even hit the gas yet, Shug is a very patient trainer. He's been waiting for this one, I see a Triple Crown horse if he remains injury free..

elevenblack301 · Apr 4, 2013

joeyp said:
lines of battle just ran a great race in dubai at the world cup day

joeyp,

Do you know if that was on dirt ............. thanks?

elevenblack301 · Apr 4, 2013

'OlFarter said:
I personally think ORB hasn't even hit the gas yet, Shug is a very patient trainer. He's been waiting for this one, I see a Triple Crown horse if he remains injury free..

Would be great to see.............. ORB does look like a top contender, but that Triple Crown road is demanding.............. as we all know............thanks

wabashwonders · Apr 4, 2013

Welcome back 11black. I always look forward to your Derby info. Thanks for sharing...

wabashwonders · Apr 4, 2013

elevenblack301 said:
joeyp,

Do you know if that was on dirt ............. thanks?

It was on polytrack. The derby will be LOB first try on dirt.

elevenblack301 · Apr 4, 2013

wabashwonders said:
Welcome back 11black. I always look forward to your Derby info. Thanks for sharing...

Much thanks, always look forward to this time of the year and always appreciate your input..............

Hopefully we can put all of our heads together and bring home the winna................

SqueezetheJuice · Apr 4, 2013

Early: It's My Lucky Day and Verrazano

DrunkenHorseplayer · Apr 4, 2013

Orb and Verrazano look tough; wouldn't touch the UAE Derby winner.

elevenblack301 · Apr 4, 2013

:think2: For those that like to look at the post positions for the derby, here is an interesting tidbit.......

When you take a look at the history of the Kentucky Derby post positions, one thing is clear: the closer you are to the rail, the better chance you have of winning.
The most winningest post positions are No. 1 (12 wins) and No. 5 (12) and when you do the math, the wins from those two spots are still greater than all the gates from No. 11 – No. 20 combined.
The wins coming from gates No. 1 – No. 5 total up to 52. The other 15 spots only total up to 61, so it gives a fairly good indication that post position is very important.

..........# wins ( 1900 - 2012 )

Post Position	Number of Wins
1	12
2	9
3	8
4	11
5	12
6	6
7	8
8	10
9	4
10	10
11	3
12	3
13	4
14	2
15	3
16	4
17	0
18	1
19	1
20	2

elevenblack301 · Apr 4, 2013

Here is a great link that helps explain all of the Dosage, Pedigree and Performance............... and what all of those numbers actually mean............

http://www.chef-de-race.com/main_menu.htm

As to the post postion list above and the number of wins, one must remember there were many derbys that were run with less than the 20 starters that we have had recently, just to mention it......

PerryKoon · Apr 5, 2013

Elevenblack - The post position statistics are irrelevant unless you show the exact statistics of winners with a 20 horse field. Can you post this info? I think the 20 horse field started about 1975 - I think?

DrunkenHorseplayer · Apr 5, 2013

Here are the post positions of the last 18 KD winners, starting with the most recent:
19,16,4,8,20,7,8,10,13,5,5,16,15,16,3,5,15,16.
9 of 18 winners were from Post 13 or higher; the last winner from the rail was Winning Colors in 1988.

elevenblack301 · Apr 5, 2013

PerryKoon said:
Elevenblack - The post position statistics are irrelevant unless you show the exact statistics of winners with a 20 horse field. Can you post this info? I think the 20 horse field started about 1975 - I think?

Will see if I can get that info.....................or maybe someone has it for us............

elevenblack301 · Apr 5, 2013

Drunken Horseplayer said:
Here are the post positions of the last 18 KD winners, starting with the most recent:
19,16,4,8,20,7,8,10,13,5,5,16,15,16,3,5,15,16.
9 of 18 winners were from Post 13 or higher; the last winner from the rail was Winning Colors in 1988.

Thanks................much appreciated............

wabashwonders · Apr 5, 2013

Looks like Hear the Ghost is out due to an injury.

joeyp · Apr 5, 2013

eleven back, im looking at java's war because in his last race 3/9 he was about 20+ lenghs behind the field and he closed like a monster @20-1 and almost caught verrazno and got 2nd hes running in the bluegrass and carries chillie willie martinez who i met at the breeders cup last year a few races before he won on trinniberg the question is will he like the polytrack in the bluegrass, if so and if he can stay in shape, i think he could be a live longshot in the derby. anybody have any thoughts on this one?

elevenblack301 · Apr 5, 2013

joeyp said:
eleven back, im looking at java's war because in his last race 3/9 he was about 20+ lenghs behind the field and he closed like a monster @20-1 and almost caught verrazno and got 2nd hes running in the bluegrass and carries chillie willie martinez who i met at the breeders cup last year a few races before he won on trinniberg the question is will he like the polytrack in the bluegrass, if so and if he can stay in shape, i think he could be a live longshot in the derby. anybody have any thoughts on this one?

joeyp,

Just watched the replay of the Tampa Derby and yes you are right...........he came charging like a freight train...........( something I love when capping the Kentucky Derby are those closers....)..............

Last year when he raced at CD, he could not finish, faded at the end, but maybe he can now. Have to see how he does next week at the Blue Grass, but I will keep him on my radar............

Thanks...........

Kentucky Derby 2013 Thoughts

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