| Yesterday | 1 | 4 | 0.00 | -6.02 |
| Last 30 Days | 4 | 7 | 0.00 | -6.20 |
| Season to Date | 4 | 7 | 0.00 | -6.20 |
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All games are 2 units.
N.Y. METS -½ -104 over San Diego
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important](1st 5 innings).[FONT=arial !important] The Mets are 2-0 and have scored 19 times in their two wins. When a team gets off to such a hot start at the plate they can’t wait to get back in the batter’s box and that applies here. By contrast, the Padres have scored six times and have just 10 hits in the two games so far. Now the Padres will have to face Dillon Gee, a guy we’re projecting to have a breakout season. Gee’s breakout season, skills-wise, ended in July last season by a blood clot in his shoulder. Gee’s struggles vs. LHB are likely anomalous and his inflated hr/f cost him ERA. However, his dominanace/disaster splits shows how good he was with nary a bad start. With that elite command and ground-ball rates, Gee is precisely the reason we buy skills and not stats. Gee has high profit potential and we’re on it.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Eric Stults in the anti-Gee. Stults went 8-3 with a 2.91 in 99 IP for the White Sox and Padres combined last year. A late bloomer? Not exactly, says his 4.42 xERA. Stults has marginal command and he benefited from favorable hit and strand rate percentages. Groundball/fly-ball rates are also marginal (40%/36%). Stult’s line-drive rate of 26% was among the worst in the business last season. This guy has been pure luck and over time, in this league, luck never holds up. Stults is coming off a spring in which he posted a 5.87 ERA and he virtually has little chance of improving that mark here. Look for the Mets to tee off again today. [/FONT]
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Detroit -½ +101 over MINNESOTA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings).[FONT=arial !important] Mike Pelfrey’s 2012 season ended with Tommy John surgery on May 1. He’s now ready to return to the big leagues...or is he? Tiny 2012 sample aside, there is little redeeming value in this skill set. TJS has been known to add a few MPH to pitchers but there's likely more help needed here. Three years of double-digit wins between 2008-2010 mean nothing but that xERA history sure does. To expect anything lower than a high-fours ERA from Pelfrey would be a mistake. Pelfrey's groundballs are headed in the wrong direction. Add in a hr/9 that doubled itself over the past couple of years and we have two big warning signs. Pelfrey is incapable of getting himself out of trouble on his own—just ask his strikeout rate. This past spring, Pelfrey threw 18 innings and allowed 28 hits and 13 runs for an ERA of 6.38. The Twins are thin in starting pitching and that’s the only reason he’s getting a shot. It won’t last for long.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Rick Porcello could be in for a big year. He added 1.8 mph to his fastball in 2012 and reports are that he’s added another 1 MPH this year. His gains were hidden due to an unlucky 35% hit rate. The porous Detroit infield won't help his hit% in its quest for regression, but his velocity spike and steady strikeout rate increase during the past two seasons mean that he's still on a growth curve. Porcello has been working on refining his slider. Doing so would give him the strikeout pitch he needs and if the spring is any indication, it’s working just fine. Porcello went 4-1 in Grapefruit League play, tossing 24 innings and allowing just 21 hits and eight earned runs for an ERA of 3.00. More notably, Porcello didn’t walk a single batter the entire spring but struck out 21 hitters. Porcello may finally consolidate his elite skill flashes into a huge season. He’s on our radar and it’s likely to pay off here against this opposing stiff. [/FONT]
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Baltimore +103 over TAMPA BAY
([FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings).[FONT=arial !important] Because our selections are based largely on the starters, we’re going to play all games in the first five innings unless otherwise stated. The Orioles got off to a 4-0 lead yesterday before the pen blew up and they eventually lost 8-7 to run their record to 1-1. In its first two games, Baltimore did some nice damage against David Price and Jeremy Hellickson and things get much easier here against Roberto Hernandez. Identity fraud is a red herring for former Fausto Carmona's real issue: his skills are missing in action. Hernandez has never been able to consistently throw strikes and without it, odds of another sub-4.00 ERA, like he had in 2010, are remote. Hernandez pitched just 14.1 innings last season and struck out a lousy two batters. This past spring he was worked extensively with 27 spring frames but he still allowed 27 hits and 16 earned runs for an ERA of 5.33. Given hard-to-repeat mechanics and poor skills, Hernandez will not last in the rotation and now is the time to take advantage.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Miguel Gonzalez went 9-4 with a 3.25 ERA in 105 IP with the O’s last year. This late bloomer made MLB debut and he thrived in pennant race but his skills don’t fully support his results. That said, unlike Hernandez, Gonzalez has viable skills for a big league starter with close to league average in control, strikeout rate and command. At age 29, the perseverance Gonzalez has showed to get to the big leagues is commendable and he has demonstrated that he has enough talent to stick in the Oriole rotation. He has been pitching over his head to this point and there is some regression coming down the road but that’s something we can fade at a later date. Against the Rays and opposing Hernandez we like the Orioles chances of getting to the front and staying there for the first five frames.
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N.Y. METS -½ -104 over San Diego
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important](1st 5 innings).[FONT=arial !important] The Mets are 2-0 and have scored 19 times in their two wins. When a team gets off to such a hot start at the plate they can’t wait to get back in the batter’s box and that applies here. By contrast, the Padres have scored six times and have just 10 hits in the two games so far. Now the Padres will have to face Dillon Gee, a guy we’re projecting to have a breakout season. Gee’s breakout season, skills-wise, ended in July last season by a blood clot in his shoulder. Gee’s struggles vs. LHB are likely anomalous and his inflated hr/f cost him ERA. However, his dominanace/disaster splits shows how good he was with nary a bad start. With that elite command and ground-ball rates, Gee is precisely the reason we buy skills and not stats. Gee has high profit potential and we’re on it.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Eric Stults in the anti-Gee. Stults went 8-3 with a 2.91 in 99 IP for the White Sox and Padres combined last year. A late bloomer? Not exactly, says his 4.42 xERA. Stults has marginal command and he benefited from favorable hit and strand rate percentages. Groundball/fly-ball rates are also marginal (40%/36%). Stult’s line-drive rate of 26% was among the worst in the business last season. This guy has been pure luck and over time, in this league, luck never holds up. Stults is coming off a spring in which he posted a 5.87 ERA and he virtually has little chance of improving that mark here. Look for the Mets to tee off again today. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
Detroit -½ +101 over MINNESOTA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings).[FONT=arial !important] Mike Pelfrey’s 2012 season ended with Tommy John surgery on May 1. He’s now ready to return to the big leagues...or is he? Tiny 2012 sample aside, there is little redeeming value in this skill set. TJS has been known to add a few MPH to pitchers but there's likely more help needed here. Three years of double-digit wins between 2008-2010 mean nothing but that xERA history sure does. To expect anything lower than a high-fours ERA from Pelfrey would be a mistake. Pelfrey's groundballs are headed in the wrong direction. Add in a hr/9 that doubled itself over the past couple of years and we have two big warning signs. Pelfrey is incapable of getting himself out of trouble on his own—just ask his strikeout rate. This past spring, Pelfrey threw 18 innings and allowed 28 hits and 13 runs for an ERA of 6.38. The Twins are thin in starting pitching and that’s the only reason he’s getting a shot. It won’t last for long.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Rick Porcello could be in for a big year. He added 1.8 mph to his fastball in 2012 and reports are that he’s added another 1 MPH this year. His gains were hidden due to an unlucky 35% hit rate. The porous Detroit infield won't help his hit% in its quest for regression, but his velocity spike and steady strikeout rate increase during the past two seasons mean that he's still on a growth curve. Porcello has been working on refining his slider. Doing so would give him the strikeout pitch he needs and if the spring is any indication, it’s working just fine. Porcello went 4-1 in Grapefruit League play, tossing 24 innings and allowing just 21 hits and eight earned runs for an ERA of 3.00. More notably, Porcello didn’t walk a single batter the entire spring but struck out 21 hitters. Porcello may finally consolidate his elite skill flashes into a huge season. He’s on our radar and it’s likely to pay off here against this opposing stiff. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
Baltimore +103 over TAMPA BAY
([FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings).[FONT=arial !important] Because our selections are based largely on the starters, we’re going to play all games in the first five innings unless otherwise stated. The Orioles got off to a 4-0 lead yesterday before the pen blew up and they eventually lost 8-7 to run their record to 1-1. In its first two games, Baltimore did some nice damage against David Price and Jeremy Hellickson and things get much easier here against Roberto Hernandez. Identity fraud is a red herring for former Fausto Carmona's real issue: his skills are missing in action. Hernandez has never been able to consistently throw strikes and without it, odds of another sub-4.00 ERA, like he had in 2010, are remote. Hernandez pitched just 14.1 innings last season and struck out a lousy two batters. This past spring he was worked extensively with 27 spring frames but he still allowed 27 hits and 16 earned runs for an ERA of 5.33. Given hard-to-repeat mechanics and poor skills, Hernandez will not last in the rotation and now is the time to take advantage.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Miguel Gonzalez went 9-4 with a 3.25 ERA in 105 IP with the O’s last year. This late bloomer made MLB debut and he thrived in pennant race but his skills don’t fully support his results. That said, unlike Hernandez, Gonzalez has viable skills for a big league starter with close to league average in control, strikeout rate and command. At age 29, the perseverance Gonzalez has showed to get to the big leagues is commendable and he has demonstrated that he has enough talent to stick in the Oriole rotation. He has been pitching over his head to this point and there is some regression coming down the road but that’s something we can fade at a later date. Against the Rays and opposing Hernandez we like the Orioles chances of getting to the front and staying there for the first five frames.
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