| Yesterday | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | -4.08 |
| Last 30 Days | 4 | 9 | 0.00 | -10.28 |
| Season to Date | 4 | 9 | 0.00 | -10.28 |
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PHILADELPHIA -115 over Kansas City
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Playing at hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field and losing two of three, the Royals managed just 17 hits and five runs. They also struck out 23 times while drawing just six walks and for the series, they batted .177. Not the best way to start the year, yet for some reason they are just a small pooch here with starter turned reliever turned starter Wade Davis going. Davis is coming off a solid spring that saw him post a 1.29 ERA over 14 frames. However, that was in four starts, meaning he averaged just 3½ innings per start. More notable is that he struck out just six batters and walked seven. Davis was a struggling starter with a declining strikeout rate and then he adds a couple of MPH to his fastball and slider out of the pen and voila! Short on starters, K.C. is now asking Davis to transition back to the rotation. Davis isn’t likely to see similar success in 2013, independent of his role. His ERA gain isn’t going to last; that was driven by a high strand percentage of 81%. Facing far fewer batters per outing clearly helped Davis but it’s unlikely he can maintain such a level in the rotation, as his dominance against lefties (.161BA, .464 OPS in 130 PAs) is out of whack with his history. At this park, against the Phillies, he could blow up right out of the gate.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Can a chewing out by a manager turn a player around? After an August meeting, Kyle Kendrick was a new pitcher, with strikeout rate, command and ground-ball % at or near career highs. He even solved LHBs, an Achilles heel. Small sample and his history suggests caution but those 2H skills say "breakout”. Kendrick saw both his strikeouts and swinging strike rate surge in 2012 and he did so without significant control erosion. In addition, his skills surged in the 2H with a 50% GB rate, a 16% line-drive rate with fewer walks and more strikeouts. At age 28 and after enduring some growing pains, Kendrick has more upside than most realize and that includes the oddsmakers. [/FONT]Play: Philadelphia -115 (Risking 2.3 units to win 2).
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Seattle/CHICAGO over 8½ -106
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]When two garbage pitchers are going, you usually see a total in the 9½ range much like the Orioles/Twins game today. This total matches the Tigers/Yanks total (Fister/Nova) and that’s just out of whack. Blake Beavan went 11-11 with a 4.43 ERA in 152 IP for the Mariners last year and this isn’t Safeco. Beavan’s line-drive (23%) tendency and on base percentage cancel out his playable command. What's that? Oh, you don't want Derek Lowe? Neither do we. Beaven has great control but strikes out very few batters. Even in the minors, he struck out few. With so few Ks and BBs, a lot of balls are put in play, not a great thing for a pitcher who gives up a healthy number of line drives. He’s also at the mercy of hit % and strand % fluctuations. A plunging skill set shows that not only is there no growth, but that Beavan is actually regressing. This guy has about two months left in his major league career so take advantage now.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Carlos Quintana isn’t much better. He went 6-6 with a 3.76 ERA in 136 IP for the South side a year ago but it was all smoke and mirrors. There was no single hallmark skill here but at least for 1H, Quintana wrung the most out of a series of just-above-tolerance skills. He slipped off that tight rope in second half though, posting a skills profile that we just can't endorse. Quintana's upside remains as a back of the rotation/middle relief type in the long run. We’re not asking much of Quintana here. We’re asking him to give up three or more runs and this one should sail over this low number because the South Side will get theirs. [/FONT]Play Chi/Sea over 8½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
[/FONT][/FONT]Boston +154 over TORONTO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]As the Blue Jays found out in their season-opening series loss to the Indians, it’s quite a different role going from low expectations to high expectations. Despite winning yesterday and going off 10 runs, Toronto had to fight tooth and nail to hang on for the win. There is pressure on this loaded club to win a lot of games and they didn’t respond well in the opening series and we’ll look to take advantage of this inflated price here. Josh Johnson experienced a decline in his strikeout rate last year. A normalized hit % and strand % are all it took for Johnson to go from elite to mediocre, though lingering effects of a shoulder injury may explain lost velocity (down 2 mph from 2010). However, second half was actually worse than 1H so betting on a return to old form may require a leap of faith.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Red Sox took two of three from the Yanks in their series opener and they looked damn good in doing so. This guest has a new identity and attitude and right now they’re still grossly undervalued, as is today’s starter, Felix Doubront. Doubront quietly had an elite strikeout rate in 29 games started with Boston in 2012. Problem was, he struggled with his control but that may have been an issue of durability more than a lack of skill. Doubront's control in the first half wasn't bad and his overall skills were excellent. With a 9.5% swinging strike rate, 93 mph fastball, and good numbers against both LH and RH bats, Doubront may just be ready to take it up a notch or two. Doubront had 22 K’s in 18 innings this past spring while issuing just six walks. This good-looking lefty has a profile that will work and it looks even more appealing taking back 7½-5. Play: Boston +154 (Risking 2 units). [/FONT]
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Arizona +121 over MILWAUKEE
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Brewers lost their season opening series to the Rockies while managing to score just 12 times in the three-game set against Colorado’s pedestrian pitching staff. Milwaukee’s staff allowed 19 runs in the three-game set with no starter lasting more than 5.1 frames. The Brewers come into this series with an already taxed bullpen and that can’t be a good thing. Kyle Lohse has had the luxury of pitching in St. Louis over the past five years but he won’t have that luxury this season. Lohse had a minor skills boost last year but he significantly outperformed his xERA again. His control is legit, but not THIS good and history says not to trust second half strikeout rate. Lohse’s sterling W-L record will not repeat and his strand percentage of 77% is likely to regress. Lohse is high on our fade list.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Wade Miley paced the Diamondbacks starters in victories and ERA in 2012, easily out-pitching vets like Ian Kennedy and Trevor Cahill. Miley made significant gains in both his control and strikeout rates a year ago and everything he did as a rookie was impressive. Miley was especially tough on LH, who have just 1 HR against him in 183 career AB. While Miley’s 3.33 ERA overstated his improvement a bit, his 3.87 xERA in his first full season was impressive. Miley’s ground-ball ways, especially in the first half, added to his stability. The fact that he maintained his new level from the first half to the second half and didn’t benefit from hit%/strand% luck in either gives some evidence that his skills growth was for real. Though not overpowering and unlikely to be a front-of-the-rotation type in the long haul, Miley definitely showed that he belonged. There’s profit potential here. Play: Arizona +121 (Risking 2 units). [/FONT]
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St. Louis/SAN FRANCISCO over 7½ +102
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Giants will open their season at home in front of a packed house at AT&T Park with two pitchers opposing one another that have very little chance of keeping the opposition off the scoreboard. Barry Zito posted a 3.03 ERA last year and followed it up with a strong post-season. Prior to that, it was four disaster starts in August and another year of lousy skills. While Zito’s story is great on one level—man with a ridiculous contract finally making good—it's also heavily laced with risk should you buy into this resurgence, because on a pure skills level, it's not a resurgence at all. Zito’s career best splits vs LH probably won't repeat, nor will the 15 wins. Last year was a complete fluke with hard hit balls being hit right at people. Zito’s year-to-year trend is awful with an xERA of almost 5.00, a third straight season of a declining strikeout and groundball rates and a line-drive rate constantly around 20%.There will be no more miracles in '13 for Zito.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Jake Westbrook is 35 years old and has over 1600 lifetime innings in the majors. He also has a career BAA of .273 and a career ERA of 4.30. Westbrook’s groundball tilt remains consistent and his skills were strong as ever, although that’s not saying much, until late-season Sept oblique strain. Westbrook is a serviceable fourth or fifth starter that will eat innings but he’ll never be anything more. He's also long past the point of growth with best case scenario for him being another year with average numbers right across the board. This past spring, Westbrook put up more Westbrook-like numbers with 24 hits in 24 innings, 13 runs allowed, nine walks and 13 K’s. It’s also worth noting that AT&T Park is a pitcher’s park but in day games, it plays more of a hitter’s park, as the damp night air is not present. Expect both of these pitcher’s to pay the price. Play: St. L/SF over 7½ +102 (Risking 2 units).
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I got 2 baseball games on right now, and I'm not even "on" them. Good luck again. we all could use it. -cheers
