Final Four bets ... and the refs
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
Words have consequences. If that's a lesson from kindergarten you had forgotten at some point between then and now, we got a reminder this week.
Before the Pac-12 tournament, the conference's head of officiating, Ed Rush, told his crew of refs that anyone who T'd up Arizona coach Sean Miller would get $5,000 and a trip to Cancun. Maybe he said it with a wink and a nod. Maybe he said it, was met with silence and screamed, "I'm kidding! Just kidding, guys." I always do that when I float an outrageous idea that absolutely stops the room. Or maybe he was serious. Whatever the case, Miller was given a technical in the Wildcats' game against UCLA. As of yet, no officials have jetted off to Cancun.
<OFFER>There are plenty of big stories this week about how backward, stupid, hypocritical and downright skeevy college sports are. The OTL report on Rutgers coach Mike Rice throwing balls at his players' heads and calling them homophobic names wasn't pleasant, including for Rice (who got fired), the players (who were belittled), the AD (who got fired) and us fans (who have to be like, really dude? It's Rutgers basketball. Chill out.) The report from the Selena Roberts website -- whose name I will never be able to pronounce -- as well as Shaun Assael's reporting about Auburn for The Mag and "E:60" shows even more evidence of lowlifes in the college game. But it's the Rush story that I am coming back to, because officials are supposed to be unimpeachable safeguards of the game. Otherwise, how could we bet with any level of comfort? I'm kidding, just kidding. (See, did it work?)
While Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott defended Rush at first, even Rush knew the situation was untenable. He had no credibility anymore. He resigned Thursday night. In the very small sliver of space that is this column in the world of betting, what Rush did is seen as indefensible. Everyone knows that refs are the special teams of betting -- that third component of the game that is completely unpredictable and cannot be accounted for in any betting algorithm. They may help you with a miracle cover. They may keep the right side from winning. They are a shanked field goal and phantom strike and miracle three-pointer rolled into one bad pair of black, orthotic-looking sneakers. That is especially true during the NCAA tournament, when games are called differently, favoring the more physical teams. In Iona's opening round loss to Ohio State, Gaels coach Tim Cluess commented on how his players weren't used to the way the refs were calling the game. There is just a lot more hand-to-hand combat in the postseason then there is during your standard Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference contest.
When I called my old college hoops wiseguy buddy Alan Boston on Thursday afternoon to ask him about the Final Four games, how the refs would call Louisville-Wichita State was on the top of his mind. "Louisville is aggressive, and it leads to a lot of fouls, many of which don't get called," Boston told me. "It makes this game tricky. Wichita doesn't mind roughing it up, but it doesn't have the talent that Louisville has and the athleticism that Louisville has. It's going to be harder for Wichita to get into its offense if the refs don't call it close, and then it gets into a blowout like the rest of the Louisville games have gone because their style is hard to play with."
</PHOTO2>Louisville-Wichita State is one of those games where, so far, the wiseguys have just been laying back and waiting. The line has been in the 10.5 range for several days, and any money coming in has been from the public. "We haven't had a wiseguy play yet," Orleans bookmaker Bob Scucci told me Thursday night. "People are just going with the better team, knowing they have a chance of winning and just hoping they cover. For them, it's just a question of whether the point spread comes into play."
Most gamblers I've spoken with the past week have this game power-rated as Louisville minus-9. Boston had it at minus-8, even though he told me that, right now, Louisville is a perfect 100 on his power rating scale, which is the highest he's had a team in two decades, besting the previous high of Kentucky last season. But even with the discrepancy between their numbers and the spread, they are holding off. Almost everyone is anticipating that it will move higher as the game gets closer, "and then I'll bet a little on Wichita," Boston says. "But I won't move before it gets to 11."
The line in the Michigan-Syracuse game has been in the Michigan minus-2 or 2.5 range all week. That is the kind of short number that gives bettors fits. Not just because of the last-second madness that Trey Burke can rain down from three, turning one-point leads into four-point wins. But, again, because of those pesky refs. Will they blow the whistle quickly on late-game intentional fouls to stop the clock? Will they wait a second or two? Will they call so many fouls that either team is in the bonus at the end of the game? Or will it be whistle-free and a one-and-one situation? Don't think that matters? Ask Elijah Johnson. I'll tell you one group that would like to see it close: the bookmakers.
"We are heavy on Michigan, and it is not surprising," Scucci says. "We have needed the dog in the whole tournament. But we won't be moving this number. We don't like to get in a situation where we will get sided or middled, and these games have fallen on the number all tournament. I would rather take my chances and need a side. So if I can avoid moving them I will. We will take our chances, and if we have an upset, we will win, and if not, we will lose."
Those are the consequences.
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
Words have consequences. If that's a lesson from kindergarten you had forgotten at some point between then and now, we got a reminder this week.
Before the Pac-12 tournament, the conference's head of officiating, Ed Rush, told his crew of refs that anyone who T'd up Arizona coach Sean Miller would get $5,000 and a trip to Cancun. Maybe he said it with a wink and a nod. Maybe he said it, was met with silence and screamed, "I'm kidding! Just kidding, guys." I always do that when I float an outrageous idea that absolutely stops the room. Or maybe he was serious. Whatever the case, Miller was given a technical in the Wildcats' game against UCLA. As of yet, no officials have jetted off to Cancun.
<OFFER>There are plenty of big stories this week about how backward, stupid, hypocritical and downright skeevy college sports are. The OTL report on Rutgers coach Mike Rice throwing balls at his players' heads and calling them homophobic names wasn't pleasant, including for Rice (who got fired), the players (who were belittled), the AD (who got fired) and us fans (who have to be like, really dude? It's Rutgers basketball. Chill out.) The report from the Selena Roberts website -- whose name I will never be able to pronounce -- as well as Shaun Assael's reporting about Auburn for The Mag and "E:60" shows even more evidence of lowlifes in the college game. But it's the Rush story that I am coming back to, because officials are supposed to be unimpeachable safeguards of the game. Otherwise, how could we bet with any level of comfort? I'm kidding, just kidding. (See, did it work?)
While Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott defended Rush at first, even Rush knew the situation was untenable. He had no credibility anymore. He resigned Thursday night. In the very small sliver of space that is this column in the world of betting, what Rush did is seen as indefensible. Everyone knows that refs are the special teams of betting -- that third component of the game that is completely unpredictable and cannot be accounted for in any betting algorithm. They may help you with a miracle cover. They may keep the right side from winning. They are a shanked field goal and phantom strike and miracle three-pointer rolled into one bad pair of black, orthotic-looking sneakers. That is especially true during the NCAA tournament, when games are called differently, favoring the more physical teams. In Iona's opening round loss to Ohio State, Gaels coach Tim Cluess commented on how his players weren't used to the way the refs were calling the game. There is just a lot more hand-to-hand combat in the postseason then there is during your standard Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference contest.
When I called my old college hoops wiseguy buddy Alan Boston on Thursday afternoon to ask him about the Final Four games, how the refs would call Louisville-Wichita State was on the top of his mind. "Louisville is aggressive, and it leads to a lot of fouls, many of which don't get called," Boston told me. "It makes this game tricky. Wichita doesn't mind roughing it up, but it doesn't have the talent that Louisville has and the athleticism that Louisville has. It's going to be harder for Wichita to get into its offense if the refs don't call it close, and then it gets into a blowout like the rest of the Louisville games have gone because their style is hard to play with."
</PHOTO2>Louisville-Wichita State is one of those games where, so far, the wiseguys have just been laying back and waiting. The line has been in the 10.5 range for several days, and any money coming in has been from the public. "We haven't had a wiseguy play yet," Orleans bookmaker Bob Scucci told me Thursday night. "People are just going with the better team, knowing they have a chance of winning and just hoping they cover. For them, it's just a question of whether the point spread comes into play."
Most gamblers I've spoken with the past week have this game power-rated as Louisville minus-9. Boston had it at minus-8, even though he told me that, right now, Louisville is a perfect 100 on his power rating scale, which is the highest he's had a team in two decades, besting the previous high of Kentucky last season. But even with the discrepancy between their numbers and the spread, they are holding off. Almost everyone is anticipating that it will move higher as the game gets closer, "and then I'll bet a little on Wichita," Boston says. "But I won't move before it gets to 11."
The line in the Michigan-Syracuse game has been in the Michigan minus-2 or 2.5 range all week. That is the kind of short number that gives bettors fits. Not just because of the last-second madness that Trey Burke can rain down from three, turning one-point leads into four-point wins. But, again, because of those pesky refs. Will they blow the whistle quickly on late-game intentional fouls to stop the clock? Will they wait a second or two? Will they call so many fouls that either team is in the bonus at the end of the game? Or will it be whistle-free and a one-and-one situation? Don't think that matters? Ask Elijah Johnson. I'll tell you one group that would like to see it close: the bookmakers.
"We are heavy on Michigan, and it is not surprising," Scucci says. "We have needed the dog in the whole tournament. But we won't be moving this number. We don't like to get in a situation where we will get sided or middled, and these games have fallen on the number all tournament. I would rather take my chances and need a side. So if I can avoid moving them I will. We will take our chances, and if we have an upset, we will win, and if not, we will lose."
Those are the consequences.
