2013 MLB Projections/Picks/Ratings

I'm going to post anything concerning MLB in this thread throughout the year. Here are my projections for today (4.5)

4.5

Away-- Washington Nationals Dan Haren -120
Home-- Cincinnati Reds Homer Bailey



Projected Game Total 7.9


Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Jake Westbrook
Home-- San Francisco Giants Barry Zito -120



Projected Game Total 7.5


Away-- Pittsburgh Pirates Jonathan Sanchez
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Zack Greinke -224



Projected Game Total 7.2


Away-- San Diego Padres Jason Marquis
Home-- Colorado Rockies Jeff Francis -123



Projected Game Total 10.7


Away-- Miami Marlins Alex Sanabia
Home-- New York Mets Jeremy Hefner -156



Projected Game Total 7.7


Away-- Chicago Cubs Scott Feldman
Home-- Atlanta Braves Mike Minor -208



Projected Game Total 8


Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Wade Miley
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Kyle Lohse -111



Projected Game Total 8


Away-- Oakland Athletics Daniel Straily -143
Home-- Houston Astros Brad Peacock



Projected Game Total 8.5


Away-- New York Yankees Ivan Nova
Home-- Detroit Tigers Doug Fister -196



Projected Game Total 8.1


Away-- Los Angeles Angels Jason Vargas
Home-- Texas Rangers Derek Holland -131



Projected Game Total 9.9


Away-- Minnesota Twins Liam Hendriks
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Jake Arrieta -166



Projected Game Total 8.5


Away-- Boston Red Sox Felix Doubront
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays Josh Johnson -184



Projected Game Total 8.8


Away-- Cleveland Indians Zach Mcallister
Home-- Tampa Bay Rays Matt Moore -186



Projected Game Total 7.5


Away-- Seattle Mariners Blake Beavan
Home-- Chicago White Sox Jose Quintana -138



Projected Game Total 8.1


Away-- Kansas City Royals Wade Davis
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Kyle Kendrick -135



Projected Game Total 8

I've added more projections to the daily numbers. Along with the line and total I've now added:

-Score for each team
-projection for runs/hits/errors
-Chance of a score in the 1st inning and the money line connected with that.

Here are the numbers with these factors added in. (Numbers get a little bunched in this format but you'll see next to each team a run score and a money line if that team is projected to be the favorite. )

Away-- Washington Nationals Ross Detwiler 3.94
Home-- Cincinnati Reds Mike Leake -111 3.95



Projected Game Total 7.89

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.81
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.32% 103


Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Pat Corbin 4.24
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Michael Fiers -114 4.3



Projected Game Total 8.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.93
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.52% -106


Away-- Miami Marlins Ricky Nolasco 3.12
Home-- New York Mets Jonathon Niese -175 4.09



Projected Game Total 7.21

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.61
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47% 113


Away-- Pittsburgh Pirates A.J. Burnett 2.29
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw -220 3.91



Projected Game Total 6.2

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 22.85
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 43.58% 129


Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Shelby Miller 3.36
Home-- San Francisco Giants Ryan Vogelsong -133 3.7



Projected Game Total 7.05

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.34
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.47% 115


Away-- Chicago Cubs Carlos Villanueva 3.57
Home-- Atlanta Braves Julio Teheran -164 4.37



Projected Game Total 7.94

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.89
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.49% 102


Away-- San Diego Padres Tyson Ross 5.21
Home-- Colorado Rockies Jon Garland -132 5.54



Projected Game Total 10.75

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 30.81
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 59.04% -144


Away-- Cleveland Indians Trevor Bauer 3.38
Home-- Tampa Bay Rays Alex Cobb -194 4.62



Projected Game Total 8

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.99
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.68% 101


Away-- Oakland Athletics Bartolo Colon -125 4.38
Home-- Houston Astros Bud Norris 4.15



Projected Game Total 8.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.93
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.50% -106


Away-- New York Yankees Phil Hughes 3.67
Home-- Detroit Tigers Max Scherzer -166 4.5



Projected Game Total 8.18

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.31
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.30% -101


Away-- Boston Red Sox John Lackey 4.23
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays J.A. Happ -134 4.58



Projected Game Total 8.81

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.42
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.46% -110


Away-- Seattle Mariners Felix Hernandez -131 3.64
Home-- Chicago White Sox Dylan Axelrod 3.33



Projected Game Total 6.96

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.18
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.17% 117


Away-- Los Angeles Angels Tommy Hanson 4.76
Home-- Texas Rangers Matt Harrison -136 5.15



Projected Game Total 9.91

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 29.34
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 56.20% -128


Away-- Minnesota Twins Vance Worley 3.8
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Chris Tillman -172 4.72



Projected Game Total 8.52

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.9
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.46% -106


Away-- Kansas City Royals Luis Mendoza 3.93
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies John Lannan -121 4.1



Projected Game Total 8.03

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.80% 101

4/7 projections

Away-- Washington Nationals Stephen Strasburg -115 3.7
Home-- Cincinnati Reds Johnny Cueto 3.63



Projected Game Total 7.33

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.83
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.43% 111


Away-- Miami Marlins Jose Fernandez 3.52
Home-- New York Mets Aaron Laffey -152 4.14



Projected Game Total 7.67

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.42
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.56% 106


Away-- Chicago Cubs Jeff Samardzija 2.97
Home-- Atlanta Braves Tim Hudson -181 4.02



Projected Game Total 6.99

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.24
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.28% 116


Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Ian Kennedy 3.74
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Yovani Gallardo -113 3.79



Projected Game Total 7.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.17
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.09% 108


Away-- Pittsburgh Pirates Jeff Locke 3.07
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Hyun Jin Ryu -164 3.87



Projected Game Total 6.94

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.14
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.09% 117


Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Adam Wainwright 3.09
Home-- San Francisco Giants Matt Cain -125 3.31



Projected Game Total 6.4

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.2
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 44.27% 126


Away-- San Diego Padres Edinson Volquez 5.17
Home-- Colorado Rockies Jhoulys Chacin -137 5.57



Projected Game Total 10.75

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 30.81
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 59.04% -144


Away-- Oakland Athletics Brett Anderson -149 4.3
Home-- Houston Astros Lucas Harrell 3.72



Projected Game Total 8.03

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.79% 101


Away-- New York Yankees C.C. Sabathia 2.89
Home-- Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander -190 4.08



Projected Game Total 6.97

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.2
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.21% 116


Away-- Boston Red Sox Jon Lester 3.75
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays R.A. Dickey -128 4.02



Projected Game Total 7.77

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.6
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.92% 104


Away-- Minnesota Twins Pedro Hernandez 3.83
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Jason Hammel -168 4.69



Projected Game Total 8.52

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.9
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.46% -106


Away-- Cleveland Indians Justin Masterson 2.84
Home-- Tampa Bay Rays David Price -192 4.06



Projected Game Total 6.9

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.07
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.94% 118


Away-- Seattle Mariners Hisahi Iwakuma 3.33
Home-- Chicago White Sox Chris Sale -141 3.79



Projected Game Total 7.12

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.46
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.71% 114


Away-- Los Angeles Angels Jered Weaver 4.28
Home-- Texas Rangers Yu Darvish -123 4.48



Projected Game Total 8.76

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.33
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.28% -110


Away-- Kansas City Royals James Shields 3.29
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels -140 3.74



Projected Game Total 7.03

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.31
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.41% 115

Thanks and good luck today my friend!!!!

XS

XSPower said:

Thanks and good luck today my friend!!!!

XS

Click to expand...

Thanks. Good luck to you as well.


4.8 numbers

Projected Line

Away-- Milwaukee Brewers Marco Estrada -117 3.89
Home-- Chicago Cubs Edwin Jackson 3.79



Projected Game Total 7.68

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.45
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.63% 106


Away-- Cincinnati Reds Mat Latos 3.58
Home-- St. Louis Cardinals Jaime Garcia -133 3.92



Projected Game Total 7.5

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.12
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48% 108


Away-- New York Mets Matt Harvey 3.84
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Roy Halladay -131 4.15



Projected Game Total 7.99

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.98
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.66% 101


Away-- Atlanta Braves Paul Maholm -176 4.14
Home-- Miami Marlins Kevin Slowey 3.16



Projected Game Total 7.3

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.78
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.32% 111


Away-- Pittsburgh Pirates Wandy Rodriguez 3.86
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks Trevor Cahill -168 4.72



Projected Game Total 8.58

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.01
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.67% -107


Away-- Colorado Rockies Jorge De La Rosa 2.93
Home-- San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner -188 4.08



Projected Game Total 7.01

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.26
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.32% 116


Away-- New York Yankees Hiroki Kuroda -117 4.03
Home-- Cleveland Indians Ubaldo Jimenez 3.93



Projected Game Total 7.96

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.93
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.56% 102


Away-- Baltimore Orioles Wei-Yin Chen 4.38
Home-- Boston Red Sox Clay Buchholz -120 4.53



Projected Game Total 8.9

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.58
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.77% -112


Away-- Minnesota Twins Kevin Correia 4.17
Home-- Kansas City Royals Ervin Santana -154 4.82



Projected Game Total 9

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.75
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.09% -113


Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Jeremy Hellickson 4.34
Home-- Texas Rangers Alexi Ogando -148 4.91



Projected Game Total 9.25

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.19
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.95% -117


Away-- Houston Astros Philip Humber 3.32
Home-- Seattle Mariners Joe Saunders -162 4.1



Projected Game Total 7.42

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.98
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.73% 110

Just checked a couple of the added stats, I just started projecting, (total r/h/e and team run totals) and they did pretty good in Sunday's games.

-r/h/e using 5 dimes lines went 11-4.
-using my team run projection for each game those numbers went 16-13-1

I think it's something to take a look at daily and I'm going to continue to track it as best as I can. We'll see how it goes.

I also found a couple spots where I played YES to scoring the 1st inning based on my projections. I don't use a dime line, on purpose, for those projections so If I find value in a current line that means the line-maker has already juiced it and there's still value.

For example if the odds are -105 for a score in the first inning and my line is -110 that's value in my opinion. If a line is +125 to score in the 1st and my number is only +112 I probably wouldn't play it over. I may look the other way.

One game that played out as a winner yesterday was CWS/Sea Yes to score in 1st inning. Book's line was +125 Yes, my line was +114 to score. I got 11 cents value on my projection.

It's another thing I'm going to keep an eye on. Found 3 instances of clear value, on Sunday, and those games went 2-1. I'm not going crazy playing a bunch of these but I'm going to track certain situations that may be profitable

4.8

early games

951 Milwaukee +115
963 Baltimore +135

Under 8.5 NYY/Cleveland

4.9

Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Josh Beckett -144 3.84
Home-- San Diego Padres Clayton Richard 3.33



Projected Game Total 7.17

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.54
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.87% 113


Away-- New York Mets Dillon Gee 3.02
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Cliff Lee -167 3.86



Projected Game Total 6.88

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.91% 118


Away-- Atlanta Braves Kris Medlen -164 4.05
Home-- Miami Marlins Wade Leblanc 3.25



Projected Game Total 7.3

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.78
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.32% 111


Away-- Milwaukee Brewers Wily Peralta -111 4.27
Home-- Chicago Cubs Travis Wood 4.26



Projected Game Total 8.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.93
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.51% -106


Away-- Cincinnati Reds Bronson Arroyo 3.75
Home-- St. Louis Cardinals Lance Lynn -141 4.21



Projected Game Total 7.97

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.94
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.59% 102


Away-- Pittsburgh Pirates James McDonald 4.12
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks Brandon McCarthy -164 4.92



Projected Game Total 9.05

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.83
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.26% -114


Away-- Colorado Rockies Juan Nicasio 3.4
Home-- San Francisco Giants Tim Lincecum -153 4.04



Projected Game Total 7.44

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.02
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.79% 109


Away-- New York Yankees Andy Pettitte -121 4.08
Home-- Cleveland Indians Carlos Carrasco 3.92



Projected Game Total 8.01

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.01
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.72% 101


Away-- Toronto Blue Jays Brandon Morrow 4.16
Home-- Detroit Tigers Anibal Sanchez -140 4.6



Projected Game Total 8.76

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.33
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.29% -110


Away-- Minnesota Twins Mike Pelfrey 3.57
Home-- Kansas City Royals Jeremy Guthrie -167 4.41



Projected Game Total 7.99

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.97
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.65% 101


Away-- Oakland Athletics Jarrod Parker 4.05
Home-- Los Angeles Angels C.J. Wilson -144 4.55



Projected Game Total 8.6

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.75% -107


Away-- Houston Astros Erik Bedard 3.76
Home-- Seattle Mariners Brandon Maurer -162 4.53



Projected Game Total 8.29

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.51
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.70% -103


Away-- Chicago White Sox Jake Peavy 3.1
Home-- Washington Nationals Gio Gonzalez -148 3.66



Projected Game Total 6.76

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.83
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.47% 120

4.10

Projected Line
Projected Score

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Homer Bailey 3.91
Home-- St. Louis Cardinals Jake Westbrook -120 4.06



Projected Game Total 7.97

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.94
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.59% 102


Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Chad Billingsley -136 3.57
Home-- San Diego Padres Eric Stults 3.18



Projected Game Total 6.75

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.81
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.44% 120


Away-- Colorado Rockies Jeff Francis 3.47
Home-- San Francisco Giants Barry Zito -143 3.96



Projected Game Total 7.44

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.02
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.79% 109


Away-- New York Mets Jeremy Hefner 3.89
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Kyle Kendrick -133 4.23



Projected Game Total 8.11

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.19
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.08% -100


Away-- Atlanta Braves Mike Minor -169 3.93
Home-- Miami Marlins Alex Sanabia 3.06



Projected Game Total 6.99

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.23
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.27% 116


Away-- Milwaukee Brewers Kyle Lohse -125 3.9
Home-- Chicago Cubs Scott Feldman 3.68



Projected Game Total 7.59

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.27
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.29% 107


Away-- Pittsburgh Pirates Jonathan Sanchez 4.09
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks Wade Miley -169 4.96



Projected Game Total 9.05

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.83
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.26% -114


Away-- New York Yankees Ivan Nova 4.24
Home-- Cleveland Indians Undecided -112 4.27



Projected Game Total 8.51

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.89
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.43% -106


Away-- Toronto Blue Jays Mark Buehrle 4.59
Home-- Detroit Tigers Rick Porcello -120 4.74



Projected Game Total 9.33

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.33
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 54.22% -118


Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Matt Moore 4.46
Home-- Texas Rangers Derek Holland -127 4.71



Projected Game Total 9.17

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.68% -116


Away-- Baltimore Orioles Jake Arrieta 4.37
Home-- Boston Red Sox Ryan Dempster -129 4.65



Projected Game Total 9.02

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.79
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.18% -114


Away-- Minnesota Twins Liam Hendriks 4.17
Home-- Kansas City Royals Wade Davis -155 4.84



Projected Game Total 9.01

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.78
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.15% -113


Away-- Oakland Athletics Tom Milone 4.15
Home-- Los Angeles Angels Joe Blanton -130 4.45



Projected Game Total 8.6

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.75% -107


Away-- Houston Astros Brad Peacock 3.56
Home-- Seattle Mariners Blake Beavan -160 4.3



Projected Game Total 7.86

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.75
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.21% 103


Away-- Chicago White Sox Gavin Floyd 3.23
Home-- Washington Nationals Jordan Zimmermann -161 3.98



Projected Game Total 7.21

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.62
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.02% 113

quick tracking update for the projections. Since Sunday 4.7 (I gave the numbers a week to settle in) Here's the W/L record versus the pinnacle closing line through Wednesday's games.

sides (29-24 +4.17)
totals (27-20 +5)

The won/loss record is accurate the units may be a few cents off as I have my tracking sheet semi-automated based on 10 cent moneylines and -110 for totals. I just don't know if anyone is using these in their daily handicapping or if I'm wasting my time posting these as it is some work. Or if someone has any opinions on the projections.

Just thought I'd share my tracking that I've started. I'm going to do it for the full season I just wanted to wait a week to adjust the teams and pitchers.

4.11

Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Zack Greinke -158 3.73
Home-- San Diego Padres Jason Marquis 3.02



Projected Game Total 6.75

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.81
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.44% 120


Away-- New York Yankees Phil Hughes 4.23
Home-- Cleveland Indians Zach Mcallister -113 4.28



Projected Game Total 8.51

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.89
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.43% -106


Away-- Toronto Blue Jays Josh Johnson 3.9
Home-- Detroit Tigers Doug Fister -143 4.39



Projected Game Total 8.29

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.51
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.69% -103


Away-- Baltimore Orioles Chris Tillman 4.42
Home-- Boston Red Sox Alfredo Aceves -123 4.61



Projected Game Total 9.02

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.79
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.18% -114


Away-- Oakland Athletics A. J. Griffin 3.61
Home-- Los Angeles Angels Jason Vargas -135 3.98



Projected Game Total 7.59

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.29
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.32% 107


Away-- Texas Rangers Justin Grimm 3.1
Home-- Seattle Mariners Felix Hernandez -155 3.77



Projected Game Total 6.87

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.02
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.86% 118


Away-- Chicago White Sox Dylan Axelrod 3.61
Home-- Washington Nationals Dan Haren -140 4.05



Projected Game Total 7.66

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.41
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.56% 106

Bullpen rankings through 4.13 games. I use the same formula/stats that I use for the starting pitchers. Still early in the season but here's the current list. I'll post 2012 final regular season below that. Higher number = better bullpen

2013

Rank - Team - Rating - IP
- - -
1 - Orioles - 46.75 - 34
2 - Giants - 45.34 - 33.33
3 - Royals - 45.15 - 28.33
4 - Braves - 44.81 - 33.33
5 - Diamondbacks - 44.67 - 42.33
6 - Athletics - 44.54 - 38.33
7 - Rangers - 43.95 - 32.67
8 - White Sox - 43.89 - 34.67
9 - Mets - 42.97 - 34.67
10 - Pirates - 42.63 - 37.67
11 - Reds - 41.5 - 36
12 - Dodgers - 40.67 - 26.67
13 - Red Sox - 40.46 - 31.67
14 - Twins - 40.4 - 42.33
15 - Angels - 39.97 - 37.67
16 - Blue Jays - 38.5 - 45
17 - Phillies - 37.19 - 32
18 - Mariners - 37.15 - 39.33
19 - Cubs - 36.97 - 29.33
20 - Padres - 36.74 - 42
21 - Cardinals - 36.39 - 31
22 - Rays - 36.2 - 28
23 - Indians - 36.15 - 30.67
24 - Rockies - 35.67 - 37.33
25 - Brewers - 35.53 - 31.67
26 - Tigers - 34.29 - 35
27 - Nationals - 34.1 - 35.67
28 - Yankees - 34.09 - 34.67
29 - Marlins - 34.06 - 32.67
30 - Astros - 32.6 - 38.33

2012

Rank - Team - Rating - IP
- - -
1 - Rays - 43.61 - 466
2 - Braves - 42.34 - 486.33
3 - Reds - 42.32 - 434.33
4 - Rangers - 41.6 - 457.33
5 - Athletics - 41.58 - 512
6 - Padres - 41.19 - 505.33
7 - Orioles - 41.03 - 545.33
8 - Diamondbacks - 40.93 - 466.67
9 - Yankees - 40.71 - 444
10 - Nationals - 40.7 - 515.33
11 - Mariners - 40.56 - 454
12 - Dodgers - 40.41 - 462
13 - Pirates - 40.37 - 498.67
14 - Phillies - 40.23 - 418.33
15 - Royals - 39.83 - 561.33
16 - Cardinals - 39.83 - 473.33
17 - White Sox - 39.52 - 465.67
18 - Red Sox - 39.51 - 514.67
19 - Indians - 39.43 - 528.33
20 - Tigers - 39.43 - 458.67
21 - Twins - 39.08 - 558.67
22 - Giants - 39.01 - 452.67
23 - Angels - 38.91 - 449
24 - Blue Jays - 38.46 - 527.67
25 - Marlins - 37.39 - 458.33
26 - Astros - 37.17 - 504.67
27 - Rockies - 36.94 - 657
28 - Mets - 36.91 - 458.67
29 - Brewers - 36.87 - 512.33
30 - Cubs - 35.11 - 491

NationalSportsRankings said:

Bullpen rankings through 4.13 games. I use the same formula/stats that I use for the starting pitchers. Still early in the season but here's the current list. I'll post 2012 final regular season below that. Higher number = better bullpen

2013

Rank - Team - Rating - IP
- - -
1 - Orioles - 46.75 - 34
2 - Giants - 45.34 - 33.33
3 - Royals - 45.15 - 28.33
4 - Braves - 44.81 - 33.33
5 - Diamondbacks - 44.67 - 42.33
6 - Athletics - 44.54 - 38.33
7 - Rangers - 43.95 - 32.67
8 - White Sox - 43.89 - 34.67
9 - Mets - 42.97 - 34.67
10 - Pirates - 42.63 - 37.67
11 - Reds - 41.5 - 36
12 - Dodgers - 40.67 - 26.67
13 - Red Sox - 40.46 - 31.67
14 - Twins - 40.4 - 42.33
15 - Angels - 39.97 - 37.67
16 - Blue Jays - 38.5 - 45
17 - Phillies - 37.19 - 32
18 - Mariners - 37.15 - 39.33
19 - Cubs - 36.97 - 29.33
20 - Padres - 36.74 - 42
21 - Cardinals - 36.39 - 31
22 - Rays - 36.2 - 28
23 - Indians - 36.15 - 30.67
24 - Rockies - 35.67 - 37.33
25 - Brewers - 35.53 - 31.67
26 - Tigers - 34.29 - 35
27 - Nationals - 34.1 - 35.67
28 - Yankees - 34.09 - 34.67
29 - Marlins - 34.06 - 32.67
30 - Astros - 32.6 - 38.33

Click to expand...

good stuff. thanks for posting. gl this season

thanks. good luck to you as well.

4.17

Away-- Kansas City Royals Wade Davis 3.26
Home-- Atlanta Braves Mike Minor -187 4.4



Projected Game Total 7.66

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.41
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.56% 106

Away-- Houston Astros Bud Norris 3.31
Home-- Oakland Athletics Bartolo Colon -187 4.45



Projected Game Total 7.76

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.59
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.90% 105

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Matt Moore -121 4.18
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Chris Tillman 4.02



Projected Game Total 8.2

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.35
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.38% -102

Away-- Boston Red Sox Alfredo Aceves 3.69
Home-- Cleveland Indians Justin Masterson -125 3.91



Projected Game Total 7.6

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.3
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.34% 107

Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Wade Miley 3.7
Home-- New York Yankees C.C. Sabathia -136 4.08



Projected Game Total 7.78

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.62
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.96% 104

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Shelby Miller -133 3.74
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates A.J. Burnett 3.4



Projected Game Total 7.15

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.51
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.81% 114

Away-- Chicago White Sox Jose Quintana 3.9
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays J.A. Happ -133 4.24



Projected Game Total 8.14

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.24
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.17% -101

Away-- Philadelphia Phillies John Lannan 4.03
Home-- Cincinnati Reds Mike Leake -119 4.16



Projected Game Total 8.18

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.32
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.32% -101

Away-- Washington Nationals Ross Detwiler -146 4.23
Home-- Miami Marlins Ricky Nolasco 3.7



Projected Game Total 7.94

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.89
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.48% 102

Away-- Texas Rangers Justin Grimm -128 4.25
Home-- Chicago Cubs Carlos Villanueva 3.99



Projected Game Total 8.24

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.42
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.51% -102

Away-- San Francisco Giants Ryan Vogelsong 3.94
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Kyle Lohse -128 4.21



Projected Game Total 8.14

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.25
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.19% -101

Away-- Los Angeles Angels Tommy Hanson -128 4.25
Home-- Minnesota Twins Vance Worley 3.99



Projected Game Total 8.24

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.42
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.51% -102

Away-- New York Mets Jeremy Hefner 5.29
Home-- Colorado Rockies Jon Garland -133 5.63



Projected Game Total 10.92

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 31.11
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 59.62% -148

Away-- Detroit Tigers Max Scherzer 3.32
Home-- Seattle Mariners Felix Hernandez -110 3.32



Projected Game Total 6.64

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.62
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.08% 122

Away-- San Diego Padres Tyson Ross 2.13
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw -270 4.5



Projected Game Total 6.63

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.6
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.03% 122

5.5 projections

Away-- Minnesota Twins Mike Pelfrey 4.34
Home-- Cleveland Indians Corey Kluber -129 4.62



Projected Game Total 8.96

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.67
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.95% -113

Away-- Oakland Athletics Daniel Straily 3.94
Home-- New York Yankees Andy Pettitte -141 4.4



Projected Game Total 8.34

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.6
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.86% -104

Away-- Seattle Mariners Joe Saunders 4.23
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays Brandon Morrow -146 4.76



Projected Game Total 8.99

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.73
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.06% -113

Away-- New York Mets Jonathon Niese 3.55
Home-- Atlanta Braves Tim Hudson -154 4.2



Projected Game Total 7.75

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.56
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.85% 105

Away-- Washington Nationals Gio Gonzalez -120 3.6
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates Wandy Rodriguez 3.45



Projected Game Total 7.06

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.35
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.49% 115

Away-- Chicago White Sox Jose Quintana 3.93
Home-- Kansas City Royals Wade Davis -127 4.18



Projected Game Total 8.11

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.19
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.07% -100

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Jaime Garcia -125 4.02
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Marco Estrada 3.8



Projected Game Total 7.81

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.68
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.07% 104

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Mat Latos -170 4.38
Home-- Chicago Cubs Edwin Jackson 3.49



Projected Game Total 7.87

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.78
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.27% 103

Away-- Miami Marlins Kevin Slowey 3.39
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Roy Halladay -175 4.35



Projected Game Total 7.74

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.54
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.81% 105

Away-- Boston Red Sox Jon Lester 3.68
Home-- Texas Rangers Yu Darvish -155 4.34



Projected Game Total 8.02

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.04
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.77% 101

Away-- Baltimore Orioles Jason Hammel 4.22
Home-- Los Angeles Angels Jerome Williams -122 4.4



Projected Game Total 8.63

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.1
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.83% -108

Away-- Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander -300 5.43
Home-- Houston Astros Philip Humber 2.61



Projected Game Total 8.04

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.06
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.82% 101

Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Ian Kennedy -122 3.76
Home-- San Diego Padres Edinson Volquez 3.59



Projected Game Total 7.35

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.87
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.50% 111

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Alex Cobb 4.56
Home-- Colorado Rockies Jhoulys Chacin -119 4.69



Projected Game Total 9.24

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.18
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.93% -117

Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Hyun Jin Ryu 3.13
Home-- San Francisco Giants Matt Cain -141 3.59



Projected Game Total 6.71

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.75
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.32% 121

5.22 projections

Away-- Minnesota Twins Vance Worley 3.62
Home-- Atlanta Braves Paul Maholm -179 4.64



Projected Game Total 8.25

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.44
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.56% -102

Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Hyun Jin Ryu -126 4.38
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Wily Peralta 4.15



Projected Game Total 8.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.92
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.49% -106

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Mat Latos 3.12
Home-- New York Mets Matt Harvey -119 3.26



Projected Game Total 6.38

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.16
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 44.19% 126

Away-- Oakland Athletics Jarrod Parker 4.78
Home-- Texas Rangers Ross Wolf -122 4.96



Projected Game Total 9.75

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 29.06
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 55.64% -125

Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Trevor Cahill 4.67
Home-- Colorado Rockies Jorge De La Rosa -122 4.85



Projected Game Total 9.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.67
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 54.89% -122

Away-- Washington Nationals Gio Gonzalez 3.21
Home-- San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner -136 3.6



Projected Game Total 6.81

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.92
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.66% 119

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Jeremy Hellickson -116 4.8
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays Mark Buehrle 4.71



Projected Game Total 9.51

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.63
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 54.82% -121

Away-- New York Yankees Hiroki Kuroda -125 4.39
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Jason Hammel 4.17



Projected Game Total 8.55

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.97
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.58% -107

Away-- Seattle Mariners Brandon Maurer 3.9
Home-- Los Angeles Angels C.J. Wilson -169 4.78



Projected Game Total 8.68

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.2
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.02% -108

Away-- Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander -133 4.18
Home-- Cleveland Indians Ubaldo Jimenez 3.84



Projected Game Total 8.03

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.80% 101

Away-- Chicago Cubs Jeff Samardzija 3.51
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates Francisco Liriano -130 3.8



Projected Game Total 7.31

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.8
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.37% 111

Away-- Philadelphia Phillies Cliff Lee -169 3.92
Home-- Miami Marlins Kevin Slowey 3.04



Projected Game Total 6.96

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.19
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.17% 117

Away-- Boston Red Sox Clay Buchholz -141 4.4
Home-- Chicago White Sox Hector Santiago 3.94



Projected Game Total 8.35

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.61
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.88% -104

Away-- Kansas City Royals James Shields -209 4.89
Home-- Houston Astros Jordan Lyles 3.42



Projected Game Total 8.31

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.54
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.74% -103

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Tyler Lyons -117 3.86
Home-- San Diego Padres Burch Smith 3.76



Projected Game Total 7.61

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.33
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.39% 107

My bullpen rankings through 5.21 games. Higher number = better bullpen.

Rank - Team - Rating - IP
- - -
1 - Royals - 42.67 - 106.67
2 - Pirates - 42.36 - 160
3 - Yankees - 42.3 - 136
4 - Braves - 42.21 - 124.33
5 - Athletics - 42.2 - 150.67
6 - Diamondbacks - 42 - 131
7 - Brewers - 41.86 - 141.33
8 - Rockies - 41.77 - 160.67
9 - Reds - 41.7 - 130.33
10 - Indians - 41.3 - 137.33
11 - Padres - 41.08 - 152
12 - Twins - 40.93 - 156.33
13 - Giants - 40.86 - 140
14 - Mariners - 40.72 - 136
15 - Orioles - 40.39 - 148.33
16 - Rangers - 40.24 - 132.33
17 - Tigers - 39.96 - 132.33
18 - Red Sox - 39.51 - 133
19 - Blue Jays - 38.61 - 159.33
20 - Cardinals - 37.91 - 114.67
21 - Marlins - 37.88 - 150.67
22 - Angels - 37.81 - 150
23 - Nationals - 37.78 - 123.33
24 - Rays - 37.69 - 122
25 - White Sox - 37.31 - 125.33
26 - Mets - 37.3 - 145.67
27 - Cubs - 37.29 - 117
28 - Dodgers - 37.08 - 131
29 - Phillies - 36.74 - 118.67
30 - Astros - 34.97 - 175.33

Thursday 7/11 Projections

Away-- Toronto Blue Jays R.A. Dickey -125 4.52
Home-- Cleveland Indians Danny Salazar 4.29



Projected Game Total 8.81

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.86
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.46% -110

Away-- Minnesota Twins Mike Pelfrey 3.28
Home-- Tampa Bay Rays Matt Moore -206 4.71



Projected Game Total 7.99

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.38
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.66% 101

Away-- Chicago White Sox Chris Sale 3.66
Home-- Detroit Tigers Anibal Sanchez -162 4.43



Projected Game Total 8.09

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.57
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.02% -100

Away-- Kansas City Royals Ervin Santana 3.97
Home-- New York Yankees Andy Pettitte -125 4.19



Projected Game Total 8.17

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.7
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.26% -101

Away-- Boston Red Sox Ryan Dempster -142 4.08
Home-- Seattle Mariners Erasmo Ramirez 3.6



Projected Game Total 7.68

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.83
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.61% 106

Away-- Texas Rangers Ross Wolf 4.6
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Miguel Gonzalez -129 4.88



Projected Game Total 9.49

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 29.08
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 54.76% -121

Away-- Washington Nationals Jordan Zimmermann -128 4.09
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Kyle Kendrick 3.82



Projected Game Total 7.91

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.24
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.39% 102

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Mat Latos 3.69
Home-- Atlanta Braves Tim Hudson -110 3.69



Projected Game Total 7.38

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.28
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.59% 110

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Jake Westbrook -121 4.64
Home-- Chicago Cubs Edwin Jackson 4.48



Projected Game Total 9.12

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.41
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.50% -115

Away-- Milwaukee Brewers Yovani Gallardo 4.26
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks Wade Miley -132 4.59



Projected Game Total 8.86

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.94
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.61% -111

Away-- Colorado Rockies Drew Pomeranz 3.76
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Chris Capuano -141 4.22



Projected Game Total 7.98

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.36
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.62% 102

Away-- San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner -157 3.9
Home-- San Diego Padres Jason Marquis 3.2



Projected Game Total 7.09

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.77
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.62% 115