MLB SATURDAY discussion thread for 4.6.2013 (going to do this everyday)

Braves -1 interests me.. I personally like Teheran.

If i were to bet anything it would be that play.

I am looking Orioles, Worely started off rough against the Tigers at home in his first start giving up three runs. I feel that the O's are raking right now and should be able to put up a few against Worely. I'll check Tillamn's numbers, maybe the over is the best call as the Twins have runs in their bats. Any feel fellas?

Will take a long look at the under @SF: Vogelsong shut the Cards down last season: 3 starts, going 7IP all three times, giving up a grand total of 2R on 11H and 6BB. AT&T Park a great under park, even though it's a day game, and Vogelsong was a full run better pitching @SF last year. Just don't like Vogelsong's last spring starts, although I like that he played the WBC.
Miller had good spring numbers and was highly touted, first time the Giants will see him, so should play to his advantage...but might opt for the STL team total under instead.

Also like Hernandez & the underrated Mariners offense @1.78: Still underrated offense & Hernandez looked great @OAK, so even though it's a road game, Hernandez being favored by that little against an unproven rookie seems like a decent spot to bet the Mariners. He kind of struggled against them last 2 years though, but the H2H vs current batters actually looks good: Viciedo (0/2), Keppinger (0/1) & De Aza (0/1) are hitless in just 4ABs, Rios 5/23 & Ramirez 6/21 hitting a combined .250 and all but 1 of those 11 hits were just singles. Dunn is 1/4 with a HR. Konerko hit 7/25 with 2HR, but so far is slumping, and Beckham is hitting 4/16 with a double and 2HR, which to me looks more like a fluke than sustainable power numbers vs Hernandez.

Kc again!!!!!

3-1, 7-3

nym, lad -1.5

Rounder23 said:

3-1, 7-3

nym, lad -1.5

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looking at that over... looks tempting... might be a gift

I like Washington in a bounce back game.

Also like Colorado a lot today.

Corbin for DBacks under the radar pitcher...gave up a lot of homers last year but not bad numbers and Brews without Ramirez and possibly no Braun. DBacks off. with 6 or more runs in 2 of 1st 4games this year.

Went with ARI +110 and SEA -130.
Fiers was terrible at the end of last season and I firmly believe it was less because of fatigue but because the league caught up to him and adjusted: Similar like Collmenter from ARI his unusual delivery and the deception it causes got him off to an impressive start, but once everybody had seen it, hitters pretty much teed off of him...spring looked very similar and therefore I don't expect him to repeat last year's performance vs ARI or get anywhere close to a below 4 ERA....also doesn't bode well for MIL, if he can't go deep into the game since their bullpen sucks bigtime. MILs offense crushed LHP last year and Corbin was anemic on the road, but his stats don't match with those road numbers and he looked improved in spring training. MILs performance vs LHP also came first & foremost thanks to Braun & Ramirez putting up insanely good numbers (.363/.774 AVG/SLG by Braun and .338/.669 by Ramirez and Hart added a very decent line of .290/.534), while outside of Lucroy the rest pretty much was pedestrian at best. So with Hart on the DL, Ramirez being out and Braun in question with his neck spasms, MIL shouldn't be favored.

Will pass on the SF total, Vogelsong's last two spring appearances were rather mediocre at best. But taking another look at DET -0.5 1st 5. Scherzer pretty good history vs NYY, Yankees offense is a joke and Scherzer was impressive in spring. Also not a fan of Hughes and he missed a bunch of time due to injury (again), so not sure if he's even 100% yet and DET seemed to finally set in offensively yesterday.

BoutMyMoney said:

looking at that over... looks tempting... might be a gift

Click to expand...

I shoulve clarified, 3-1 was what my plays in the 4/5 thread did, 7-3 ytd. I havent started my own mlb thread so doing the daily thing. I dont think PIT will score 3 today off Kershaw.

Also will take -130 on DET-1.
Hughes has only pitched to minor leaguers in extended spring games, hasn't faced any real competition yet and until last night wasn't even supposed to start in the big leagues until next week, afaik he also has only gone >60 pitches once so far, so might be on a tight pitch count. Yankees bullpen already had to work a lot and didn't do too well so far. Hughes had good results vs DET, but the numbers against today's lineup actually isn't that good: Guys like Hunter (3/9, although just singles), Peralta 8/17 with 3 doubles and Martinez 6/15 with 2 doubles hit him well, Cabrera's numbers are just sick with 9/20 and 2 doubles + 4HR. Only thing in favor of Hughes is the wind blowing in with ~15mph because that should help him (flyballer) keeping the ball in the park. But just don't think he can be close to 100% just yet after being limited to rehabbing in a pool at the end of February and just throwing BP + simulated games until like 2 weeks ago. DETs offense also did way better last night than they did @MIN.
Scherzer was impressive in the 2nd half last year and looked even better in spring. His results vs NYY are a bit mixed, but he shut them down @DET and now is a much improved pitcher. Besides this year's Yankee lineup (at least the current one) is a complete joke, imo only Ichiro, Gardner, Cano and Youkilis are legit Major Leaguers anymore, Wells/Hafner might still be worth a bench spot, but the rest should be on no Major League roster, even less if you consider yourself a playoff contender. Out of those guys I mentioned, Gardner is still struggling and Ichiro & Cano don't hit anything yet...so the current form is quite bad.
Without Nunez, they will also probably have to field an infield of Overbay/Cano/Nix/Youkilis which is also subpar defensively (to the say the least). Add insult to injury, the offensive numbers vs Scherzer look even worse: Youk hits a for a bad .235 avg (4/17), but at least he hit a double and two HRs, so when he made contact, he made strong contact. Then you get Ichiro, which up to this point hits shit, who hit 4/15 with a triple, which is still below average. And finally Hafner, who hits for a strong average of 7/19 vs Scherzer, but 6 of those hits were just singles (1HR though), but 8 of his 12 outs were unproductive Ks. So that leaves us with the rest of the current yankee offense and they combine for an amazing 3/44 (1HR), which is ridiculous.
Even with Detroits bullpen struggling @MIN, this game on paper looks pretty one-sided

I like KC and Wash (I know already started) but I posted it.

I am still going over plays for 7pm and later games.