| Yesterday | 3 | 2 | 0.00 | +3.20 |
| Last 30 Days | 7 | 11 | 0.00 | -7.08 |
| Season to Date | 7 | 11 | 0.00 | -7.08 |
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Kansas City +118 over PHILADELPHIA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]John Lannan makes the switch from Washington’s Nationals Park and a great infield defense to Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park and a much lesser infield defense. Neither will work in Lannan’s favor. Lannan spent the majority of 2012 sputtering in Triple-A Syracuse, where he posted a 4.30 ERA in 24 starts with an ugly 86/50 K/BB. Lannan's only plus skill is his groundball tendency, which, combined with dashes of hit % and strand % fortune, have allowed him to out-pitch his xERA in each of his six major league seasons. There's nothing in his skill set that suggests long-term success but there’s plenty that suggests he’s going to implode at this park. Despite his good fortunes, Lannan still sports an ugly 1.51 WHIP in 64 starts over the past three years. This past spring, Lannan posted a 7.71 ERA in 21 innings over five starts. Those hard hit groundballs that were not finding holes in Washington will surely find them at this unforgiving park. The Phillies are 1-3 and the only reason they have one win is because Cliff Lee was able to shut down the Braves when the Phillies scored just two runs. They couldn’t win with Roy Halliday, Kyle Kendrick or Cole Hamels starting and with that awful pen, chances are they’re not going to win with this stiff going.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Royals have evened their record to 2-2 and have to be feeling pretty good after pounding out 19 hits yesterday in a 13-4 bashing of these Phillies. K.C. had just 17 hits in its previous three games in Chicago. It’s also worth noting that the Royals bullpen didn’t allow a single hit after Wade Davis gave up nine hits and four runs in the first four innings. Should this game be decided by the pens, one has to give a significant edge to the Royals. Luis Mendoza wasn’t terrible last season and that's saying a lot when you look at his history. 2H is where it all clicked, but even then he was only marginal. We’re not going to sugarcoat this and say Mendoza has breakout potential because he does not. His skills are mediocre and while his GB tendency offers a building block, it didn't help him all that much in '08 when he posted similar skills. It’s hard to see a path out of mediocrity for Mendoza but this isn’t about wagering on him. This wager is all about fading John Lannan, the Phillies bullpen and a struggling club that looks completely out of sync. The Royals bats woke up yesterday and Lannan is not likely to put them back to sleep. Play: Kansas City +118 (Risking 2 units). [/FONT]
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Arizona +115 over MILWAUKEE
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Diamondbacks are 3-1 and while it’s still early, we’d much rather be playing a team that’s won three of four and taking back a price than spotting a tag with a club that’s 1-3 and that has lost three straight. Losing is not easy to shake off, especially early in the year when losing can dig a hole that’s difficult to get out of. Mike Fiers (RHP - MIL) emerged as one of the NL's surprises in 2012 due to his quality off-speed stuff and deception in his delivery, but there are two things that make a repeat highly unlikely. His 88 mph fastball gives him very little wiggle room, especially as NL hitters adjust to his off-speed pitches. Second, his below average 8.3% swinging strike rate is correlated with the Aug-Sept beating he took (6.12 ERA, 1.6 hr/9). Fiers 2012 groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 33%/28%/39% screams disaster. Fiers had a horrible spring too, pitching 19 frames and allowing 29 hits, 15 earned runs and walking eight for a spring ERA of 6.98. To suggest that Fiers is unappealing as the chalk would be an understatement.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Patrick Corbin has earned the No. 5 spot in the Diamondbacks starting rotation and ended up claiming the job in convincing fashion, leading the staff in IP and averaging more than a strikeout an inning while compiling a 2.81 ERA in seven spring games. Corbin went 6-8 with a 4.54 ERA in 107 IP last year but don’t put too much emphasis on those numbers. There are some very good signs underneath the hood. Corbin’s control, strikeout rate and groundball % all improved in concert. His 2012 xERA of 3.72 combined with other skills confirm his readiness. Corbin is underrated with profit potential and in this spot against Fiers and the struggling Crew, that profit potential is likely to pay off right away. [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Play: Arizona +115 (Risking 2 units). [/FONT] [/FONT][/FONT]
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