I'm sure I'm not the first person in here to notice this, but the odds are in your favor if you choose to take a favorite on the run line for a game, as opposed to the money line. In a small sample size so far this year, games that have ended within a run have been just under 20%. I did a little bit of digging back into the end of last season as well, and the percentages seem to not be too far of this as well. This does not mean that the team that's favored is the one that wins by 2 or more 70-80% of the time, but it might not be a bad thing to keep in mind when you really like a heavy favorite, and don't want to lay the large amount of juice that it takes to do so on the money line. Just throwing it out there. Any feedback on this is more than welcome.
I tracked about 80% of the games last year and I can tell you
AL home games line moves up on Fav Rl went 137-154
AL home games line moves down on Fav Rl went 106-186
-160, -140, -130 were the most profitable ML's when betting the RL's
I have both leagues and home away tracked
AL home games line moves up on Fav Rl went 137-154
AL home games line moves down on Fav Rl went 106-186
-160, -140, -130 were the most profitable ML's when betting the RL's
I have both leagues and home away tracked
