Avoiding the sweep in 2013

pizzap · Apr 7, 2013

Just for tracking purposes for now. 100 straight bets on the team trying to avoid the series sweep. Trying to see if there is a trend in day/night, home/away, pitchers, line movement. Don't be pissed off if this totally bombs during the season. I'm not betting these plays nor do i recommend playing them right now.

1st series of the year, we had 4 teams trying to avoid the sweep. Miami, San Diego, Philadelphia and NY Yankees

NY Yankees = W +100
Miami = L -100
San Diego = W +137
Philadelphia = W +113

4-1 +250

pizzap · Apr 7, 2013

Next set of series ending April 8. Lines from 5Dimes. Here are the teams looking to avoid the series sweep on Sunday:

NY Yankees (Away) +171
Milwaukee (Home) -106
Cubs (Away) +129
Houston (Home) +143
Cleveland (Away) +171
San Diego (Away) +139
Pittsburgh (Away) +152

Quick look over the teams, it doesn't look good for the teams trying to avoid the sweep.

BoutMyMoney · Apr 7, 2013

i see a 3-4 day at best.... but + money nonetheless. good luck PP

pizzap · Apr 8, 2013

Sunday series wrap up. Home teams and reverse line movement weren't enough to prevent several sweeps. The two biggest dogs came through (NY Yankees & Cleveland). Who would have thought J. Verlander and D. Price would both lose?

Sunday 2-5 -164

Season Total 6-6 +86

nittyspicks · Apr 8, 2013

Pizza, I've tried this and backtested it, and it's not really a viable system if played without some other discriminating factors aside from just 'avoid the sweep'

Last season there were 210 sweeps in MLB.

You need to formulate some criteria as to who you bet on, alongside the sweep factor. Example: last year the Astros, Cubs, and BoSox were swept 14 times. You would have wanted to eliminate them from consideration. The Orioles, Yankees, Rays, Chisox, Angels, A's, Rangers, Reds, Cards, and Giants were swept less than 5 times each. Might want to up your units when teams like this are eligible.

Good luck with your attempt. If I were you'd I'd study the standings/records/trends every month or so and reconfigure your criteria as to who is eligible under the system.

Also, from personal experience, I'll tell you to really look at a team's RECENT - not season long - history. Going into a series a team who is 2-8 L10 has a better shot of being swept than a team who was 8-2. Opponent recent history is useful as well.

GL,
n

pizzap · Apr 8, 2013

Thanks for the tips nittyspicks! No doubt there will be some teams that show up on a regular basis. I'm trying to see if incorporating some factors and stats can predict some winners. I probably won't be able to get a good sampling until a couple months into the season...maybe this will come in handy towards the end of the year. I thought about flat betting the teams, but will look into increasing the units on teams that are more likely not to get sweep.

Thanks again for the info!

pizzap · Apr 10, 2013

Wednesday, April 10 - Teams trying to avoid series sweep:

Tampa Bay (Away) +123
Arizona (Home) -166
Colorado (Away) +125
Cleveland (Home) -111
Minnesota (Away) +132
Miami (Home) +151

hoosierfn · Apr 11, 2013

nittyspicks said:
Pizza, I've tried this and backtested it, and it's not really a viable system if played without some other discriminating factors aside from just 'avoid the sweep'

Last season there were 210 sweeps in MLB.

You need to formulate some criteria as to who you bet on, alongside the sweep factor. Example: last year the Astros, Cubs, and BoSox were swept 14 times. You would have wanted to eliminate them from consideration. The Orioles, Yankees, Rays, Chisox, Angels, A's, Rangers, Reds, Cards, and Giants were swept less than 5 times each. Might want to up your units when teams like this are eligible.

Good luck with your attempt. If I were you'd I'd study the standings/records/trends every month or so and reconfigure your criteria as to who is eligible under the system.

Also, from personal experience, I'll tell you to really look at a team's RECENT - not season long - history. Going into a series a team who is 2-8 L10 has a better shot of being swept than a team who was 8-2. Opponent recent history is useful as well.

GL,
n

Very good points. The fact that a team has lost the first two or three games in a series, in and of itself, is not a valid reason to bet them to win the next game. These simple type formulas can never work over time as if betting on teams to avoid the sweep produced consistently positive results, large money would soon flow to those teams and books would adjust their lines accordingly. Thanks for doing the back testing to confirm this strategy won't work over an extended period.

FrankieCat · Apr 11, 2013

I actually like the premise of taking teams to avoid the sweep. But, I also agree with Nittyspicks. I am staying away from the Angels today because even though they were a solid team last year, they have started out 2-6 and seem to be in a funk. On the other hand, Oakland is red hot winning 7 in a row. I will just pass on this game today.

pizzap · Apr 12, 2013

Wednesday, April 10 - Teams trying to avoid series sweep recap

Tampa Bay (Away) +123 W
Arizona (Home) -166 W
Colorado (Away) +125 L
Minnesota (Away) +132 L
Miami (Home) +151 L

Wednesday 2-3 -77

Season total 8-9 +9

pizzap · Apr 12, 2013

Thursday, April 11 - Team trying to avoid the series sweep recap. Oakland continued their hot streak and put a beat down on the Angels.

LA Angel -145 L

Thursday 0-1 -145

Season total 8-10 -136