| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.30 |
| Last 30 Days | 8 | 12 | 0.00 | -6.78 |
| Season to Date | 8 | 12 | 0.00 | -6.78 |
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All plays are for 2 units
Miami +127 over N.Y. METS[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
(1st 5 innings) [FONT=arial !important]After the Royals blew a 3-1 lead in the ninth inning yesterday, combined with a couple of other late leads our choices blew in the first week, we’re going to play these dogs in the first five innings only and attempt to take the pens out of the equation. Our picks are based largely on the starters so it would only make sense to utilize that. The 1-4 Marlins may not be as bad as advertised. Miami is putting the ball in play but they have been very unlucky in that balls are being hit right at people. A close look reveals that Marlins hitters have the second fewest strikeouts in the National League behind San Francisco. The Fish have the benefit here of facing Aaron Laffey, who is pitching for his fifth team in six major league seasons. Laffey went 4-6 with a 4.56 ERA in 101 IP for Toronto last year. It’s been five years of the same, dull, lifeless skills for Laffey. He has one of the worst strikeout rates of all MLB pitchers to go along with a three-year WHIP of 1.63 from ’09 to ’11. Laffey is a complete stiff that should never be in this price range against any major league team.
[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]In a surprising move, Miami added Jose Fernandez to its opening day roster. Fernandez is making the jump to the majors after accumulating only 138 IP in the minors, having yet to pitch beyond High-A Jupiter, where he made 11 starts in 2012. Despite his youth (20 years old), Fernandez belonged on the short list of top pitchers in the minors during 2012. Fernandez has a very athletic frame that supports his strong arsenal of pitches. He throws a plus, plus sinking fastball ranging from 93-97 that can top out at 99, a plus, plus slow curveball, a late breaking slider, and a change-up that has above-average potential and showing steady improvement. Fernandez has a ton of upside but it is always wise to expect an adjustment period for any pitcher making this large of a leap to the majors. Nonetheless, we’re happy to take our chances taking back a tag with this truly gifted talent that has ace potential written all over him.[/FONT]
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Pittsburgh +147 over LOS ANGELES
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings.[FONT=arial !important] The Dodgers are 3-2 with Clayton Kershaw winning both his games and Zack Greinke winning the other. The Dodgers scored eight times in those three wins. When Greinke or Kershaw didn’t start, the Dodgers went 0-2 while being outscored 8-3. In other words, when those two guys aren’t starting, the Dodgers are too big a risk and this one is no different. Hyun-Jin Ryu became the first pitcher to ever make the jump straight from the Korean Baseball Organization to the majors when he pitched six solid innings in San Francisco in a 3-0 Dodgers loss. Ryu throws four pitches, a fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider. His fastball and changeup are his two above-average pitches, with his changeup being the best. However, the majors are a big step up from the Korean League and Ryu’s offerings hang around the edges of the plate too much. He throws strikes but they are hittable strikes and unless he learns to throw balls way off the plate when ahead in the count, he’s going to get burned.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Pirates are undervalued here because they have the league’s worst BA after five games that now stands at a pitiful .117. After facing Kershaw and Greinke in the first two games of this series, facing anyone else will be a welcome sight. Jeff Locke (LHP, PIT) posted a 131/43 K/BB in 141 IP at AAA Indianapolis prior to his recall in early August of last year. His MLB skills held up nicely with a 49% groundball rate and 34 K’s in 34.1 frames. Locke’s 5.50 ERA was the result of an unlucky 63% strand rate. Locke was acquired from the Braves in June ’09 and he focuses on command and control to succeed. Locke has clean arm action that produces a solid 88-92 mph fastball that features nice sink and movement. He can spot it to both sides of the plate effectively and it sets up his curveball and solid-average change-up. Locke won’t dominate but his pitch location is a strength and he can even vary his arm angles to keep hitters off-guard. Locke has also been very tough against lefties and the Dodgers big bats, aside from Matt Kemp, (Gonzalez, Crawford and Either) all bat from the left side.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Chicago +128 over ATLANTA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings.[FONT=arial !important] Tim Hudson is high on our fade list and even more so after he opened the year in unimpressive fashion against the Phillies. Hudson lasted just 4.1 frames after surrendering six hits and three runs. He struck out three, walked three and was on the ropes the entire outing. Atlanta won that game 7-5, creating a nice overlay here on the Cubbies. The value Hudson provides on the surface is slowly eroding. His second half low strikeout rate from last season drops the first warning sign. Two straight years of fastball decline, to sub-90 mph, suggests he might not get it back. xERA warns that first 4.50+ ERA is on the horizon. Hudson is middle-rotation filler now, and at age 37, it could all go quickly.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
We get a big edge on the mound here with Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija went eight full innings in his first start of the year against Pittsburgh and threw an eight-inning, two-hit shutout. He struck out nine batters and walked just one. In that first start, 72% of balls in play hit off Samardzija were hit on the ground and while that mark is unsustainable, it’s in line with his increasing skill set. Samardzija developed into a legit rotation anchor after the All-Star Break in 2012 and he’s showing signs of being even better this year. An explanation for his breakout can be found in his pitch mix. He is now throwing four different pitches at least 10% of the time: 95 mph fastball (54%), 85 mph slider (14%), 92 mph cutter (11%), 86 mph splitter (19%). With overpowering raw stuff and a varied arsenal, Samardzija's growth is for real and he offers up nothing but true value taking back a price against the geriatric ward.[/FONT]
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Boston +124 over TORONTO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings.[FONT=arial !important] R.A. Dickey is just your garden variety 37-year-old knuckleball pitcher. Um, not quite. Stunning strikeout rate spike was driven by the fastest knuckler in the East while he solidified elite control. Post-season abdomen surgery a concern and his first outing of the year wasn’t exactly dazzling. It’s not often that you see a reigning Cy Young award winner change teams. Can Blue Jays fans expect an encore performance? Dickey is unlikely to match last year’s numbers. His strand % was high all year, and hit % was low in the first half so his ERA should regress. xERA shows he should still post some good results but the low-3.00 ERA range is unlikely when you consider that AL East ballparks tend to enhance power. Dickey’s groundball rate also dipped in the second half, which is another concern. J.P. Arencibia caught Dickey in his first start with Toronto. Arencibia was charged with three passed balls and looked uncomfortable back there the entire game. The Red Sox already lead the league in stolen bases with six and that could definitely be a factor in this game. The Jays are playing very average ball with the infield defense looking very shaky.
[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]As we mentioned prior to Jon Lester’s first start in New York, Lester noted that he has refined his mechanics to stand taller on the mound, revealing that he started making an effort to correct his posture late last summer. “I was pitching like a guy who was 5-foot-10 as opposed to 6-foot-4,” Lester said. “It makes a big difference on the way the ball comes in the zone”. Lester pitched well enough to win on Opening Day, holding the Yankees to two runs on five hits over five innings of work. He struck out seven batters, which is perhaps the best sign that his two-year strikeout rate decline was just an aberration. Lester’s groundball rate remains an asset and so does his competitive nature. Lester hates to lose and worked extensively in the off-season to correct whatever it was that saw his numbers decline over the past 1½-years. He appears to be a prime bounce-back candidate and we’ll continue to ride him when a tag is offered until he shows us something different. [/FONT][/FONT] [/FONT]
think they'll get swept with the inexperienced locke on the mound.
