[h=1]Why Louisville will beat Michigan[/h][h=3]Pitino's squad has the defense, and offense, to take down the Wolverines[/h]
By John Gasaway | ESPN Insider
The national championship game is now set, and if you're among the 1.4 percent of contestants in ESPN's Tournament Challenge who picked both Louisville and Michigan to make it this far, allow me to congratulate you. I, on the other hand, have to be satisfied with half credit, as my bracket had the Cardinals facing Indiana in the title game.
That same bracket picked Rick Pitino's team to win it all, and I'll stick with that prediction. Mind you, I'd feel a whole lot better about my forecast if Mitch McGary were still merely a normal Division I basketball player, as he was three weeks ago, and not the terrifying combination of Anthony Davis (12 rebounds) and Trey Burke (six assists) that we saw against Syracuse. Can you believe McGary picked up four fouls in eight minutes and scored just two points in his team's final regular-season game? No, neither can I.
Still, even factoring in the new-look first-ballot Hall of Famer McGary into the equation, I say Pitino's team cuts down the nets after 40 more minutes of hoops. Here's my thinking:
Louisville doesn't need to force turnovers to win
You may hear that this game is a "bad matchup" for the Cardinals because their offense starts from their defense and, more specifically, from opponents' turnovers. Don't believe it.
<OFFER>It's true, of course, that the Wolverines do an excellent job of holding on to the rock. In five tournament wins, John Beilein's men have committed a turnover on just 16 percent of their possessions, which is a pretty good synonym for "next to never." But this notion that Pitino's team needs to force turnovers in order to win is one of the most persistent yet groundless myths I've run across in some time. It's gone viral, despite having little to no basis in fact.
Louisville played 198 possessions of basketball against Oregon, Duke and Wichita State, and those teams gave the ball away on just 18 percent of their possessions. Yet the Cardinals still managed to score 1.18 points per trip over those same three games. If this offense depends on turnovers from the other team, it sure has a funny way of showing it. We have now seen Louisville play three consecutive games in which opponents did not commit many turnovers, and the Cardinals are still standing. Pitino's team does not need to force turnovers in order to score.
Of course, if Michigan wants to be shaky against the press, that's a different matter
Like you, I was surprised to see the Wolverines close the game against Syracuse with a very wobbly performance against the press that Jim Boeheim rolled out late in the contest. Certainly the three turnovers committed by UM in the three possessions that followed the under-4 timeout were troubling, but by that point, Michigan was looking dubious even on possessions in which there was no turnover.
Beilein's team shredded the Virginia Commonwealth press in the round of 32, but unlike the Rams, Louisville showed all season long that it can play very good defense on the possessions in which opponents do not commit turnovers. I can envision the Cardinals speeding up Michigan in a few isolated instances, and certainly there were moments late in the game against Syracuse when the accelerated version of UM was not poetry in motion.
The best offense on the floor may actually belong to Louisville
The Cardinals have scored 1.20 points per possession in their five tournament wins, while the Wolverines have scored 1.13. Granted, UM has just emerged from a three-game gauntlet against some very heavy hitters in the "defense" category: Kansas, Florida and Syracuse are about as good as it gets when it comes to stopping opposing teams from scoring. My point is not that Michigan won't score against Louisville, but rather that I expect the Cardinals will be able to score just as efficiently if not more so.
If you saw C.J. Fair score 22 points against this Michigan D, you know that interior defense is an ongoing concern with Beilein's team. The Wolverines' five tournament opponents have made 52 percent of their shots inside the arc, and if you're looking for the proverbial bad matchup in the title game, this could be it: Louisville is shooting 62 percent on its 2s over the past five games. Indeed, the most impressive aspect of the Cards' performance on offense is that they've recorded their excellent numbers largely without any help from the perimeter. Then, finally, a few 3s did fall against Wichita State. (Take a bow, Russ Smith, Luke Hancock and, yes, Tim Henderson.) And I will state for the record that if Pitino's men again make nine 3s the way they did against the Shockers, this entire "analysis" thing is a moot point. Game over, right there.
The only player in the country as good as McGary right now: Russ Smith
Louisville's star started his evening against Wichita State by missing four straight free throws, yet his numbers for the game on the whole still look pretty good. Smith scored 21 points thanks largely to 4-of-11 shooting from beyond the arc. And as I've noted before, he has become even more prominent within the offense than he was during the regular season. Smith now accounts for 37 percent of the Cardinals' tournament shots during his minutes. When your star player is making 59 percent of his tournament 2s while carrying a Fredette-sized load of possessions, your offense is going to be very tough to beat.
Wichita State did an outstanding job making Smith and Louisville both look very normal on offense for one half of basketball, but at the end of the night, the Cardinals had still scored 72 points in a 61-possession game. This offense is on a roll, and it's about to face a defense that was suspect in the regular season, was suspect against Kansas last weekend has been suspect on the interior throughout the tournament. That's why I expect Pitino will soon be celebrating his first national championship in 17 years. He has the offense to get the job done.
By John Gasaway | ESPN Insider
The national championship game is now set, and if you're among the 1.4 percent of contestants in ESPN's Tournament Challenge who picked both Louisville and Michigan to make it this far, allow me to congratulate you. I, on the other hand, have to be satisfied with half credit, as my bracket had the Cardinals facing Indiana in the title game.
That same bracket picked Rick Pitino's team to win it all, and I'll stick with that prediction. Mind you, I'd feel a whole lot better about my forecast if Mitch McGary were still merely a normal Division I basketball player, as he was three weeks ago, and not the terrifying combination of Anthony Davis (12 rebounds) and Trey Burke (six assists) that we saw against Syracuse. Can you believe McGary picked up four fouls in eight minutes and scored just two points in his team's final regular-season game? No, neither can I.
Still, even factoring in the new-look first-ballot Hall of Famer McGary into the equation, I say Pitino's team cuts down the nets after 40 more minutes of hoops. Here's my thinking:
Louisville doesn't need to force turnovers to win
You may hear that this game is a "bad matchup" for the Cardinals because their offense starts from their defense and, more specifically, from opponents' turnovers. Don't believe it.
<OFFER>It's true, of course, that the Wolverines do an excellent job of holding on to the rock. In five tournament wins, John Beilein's men have committed a turnover on just 16 percent of their possessions, which is a pretty good synonym for "next to never." But this notion that Pitino's team needs to force turnovers in order to win is one of the most persistent yet groundless myths I've run across in some time. It's gone viral, despite having little to no basis in fact.
Louisville played 198 possessions of basketball against Oregon, Duke and Wichita State, and those teams gave the ball away on just 18 percent of their possessions. Yet the Cardinals still managed to score 1.18 points per trip over those same three games. If this offense depends on turnovers from the other team, it sure has a funny way of showing it. We have now seen Louisville play three consecutive games in which opponents did not commit many turnovers, and the Cardinals are still standing. Pitino's team does not need to force turnovers in order to score.
Of course, if Michigan wants to be shaky against the press, that's a different matter
Like you, I was surprised to see the Wolverines close the game against Syracuse with a very wobbly performance against the press that Jim Boeheim rolled out late in the contest. Certainly the three turnovers committed by UM in the three possessions that followed the under-4 timeout were troubling, but by that point, Michigan was looking dubious even on possessions in which there was no turnover.
Beilein's team shredded the Virginia Commonwealth press in the round of 32, but unlike the Rams, Louisville showed all season long that it can play very good defense on the possessions in which opponents do not commit turnovers. I can envision the Cardinals speeding up Michigan in a few isolated instances, and certainly there were moments late in the game against Syracuse when the accelerated version of UM was not poetry in motion.
The best offense on the floor may actually belong to Louisville
The Cardinals have scored 1.20 points per possession in their five tournament wins, while the Wolverines have scored 1.13. Granted, UM has just emerged from a three-game gauntlet against some very heavy hitters in the "defense" category: Kansas, Florida and Syracuse are about as good as it gets when it comes to stopping opposing teams from scoring. My point is not that Michigan won't score against Louisville, but rather that I expect the Cardinals will be able to score just as efficiently if not more so.
If you saw C.J. Fair score 22 points against this Michigan D, you know that interior defense is an ongoing concern with Beilein's team. The Wolverines' five tournament opponents have made 52 percent of their shots inside the arc, and if you're looking for the proverbial bad matchup in the title game, this could be it: Louisville is shooting 62 percent on its 2s over the past five games. Indeed, the most impressive aspect of the Cards' performance on offense is that they've recorded their excellent numbers largely without any help from the perimeter. Then, finally, a few 3s did fall against Wichita State. (Take a bow, Russ Smith, Luke Hancock and, yes, Tim Henderson.) And I will state for the record that if Pitino's men again make nine 3s the way they did against the Shockers, this entire "analysis" thing is a moot point. Game over, right there.
The only player in the country as good as McGary right now: Russ Smith
Louisville's star started his evening against Wichita State by missing four straight free throws, yet his numbers for the game on the whole still look pretty good. Smith scored 21 points thanks largely to 4-of-11 shooting from beyond the arc. And as I've noted before, he has become even more prominent within the offense than he was during the regular season. Smith now accounts for 37 percent of the Cardinals' tournament shots during his minutes. When your star player is making 59 percent of his tournament 2s while carrying a Fredette-sized load of possessions, your offense is going to be very tough to beat.
Wichita State did an outstanding job making Smith and Louisville both look very normal on offense for one half of basketball, but at the end of the night, the Cardinals had still scored 72 points in a 61-possession game. This offense is on a roll, and it's about to face a defense that was suspect in the regular season, was suspect against Kansas last weekend has been suspect on the interior throughout the tournament. That's why I expect Pitino will soon be celebrating his first national championship in 17 years. He has the offense to get the job done.
