| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3.02 |
| Last 30 Days | 10 | 13 | 2 | -3.76 |
| Season to Date | 10 | 13 | 2 | -3.76 |
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KANSAS CITY/Minnesota over 8½ -108
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Royals bats woke up in a big way in Philadelphia on the weekend by scoring 26 runs in the three-game set and taking two out of three games. It should’ve been a sweep after Greg Holland blew a two run lead in the ninth after walking the first three batters he faced. The Royals are now 3-3 after going off for 38 hits and 27 runs scored in Philadelphia. It’s unlikely that Kevin Correia will slow them down. Correia was with the Pirates last season and his story wasn’t a good one. It reads as follows: journeyman starting pitcher with a strikeout rate barely higher than his xERA moans about being replaced with his team 15 games over .500 in July for the first time in eons. Good karma is ruined, chaos ensues, team limps to a 21-40 finish and the medicore SP escapes into free agency. The bottom line is that he may not be an upgrade on what the Twins already had on hand, and he isn't likely to be of much value. Correia has a career ERA of 4.53 after pitching 10 years in hitter-friendly venues in San Francisco, San Diego and Pittsburgh.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Current Minnesota batters have 25 hits in 77 career AB’s (.325) against Ervin Santana. In Santana’s first game of the year he surrendered three bombs to the White Sox and that wasn’t something unusual. Last season, 19% of his fly-balls left the yard. That’s freakish and those bombs plus some poor command caused a 1H mess last year that doesn’t appear to be rectified. Santana’s opening game split was 20% groundballs, 20% line drives and 60% fly-balls. Santana is a pitcher in trouble. The move to Kauffman Stadium won’t affect Santana much since it plays similar to Angel Stadium. He’s not a cold weather pitcher, he can’t keep the ball in the yard and his xERA string shows that this is not an elite skill set. The potential to score mega runs here is large and we can't envision either starter from preventing it. Play over 8½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2). [/FONT]
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ARIZONA -1½ +150 over Pittsburgh
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]We hate to kick a team when they’re down but have no problem taking advantage of the Pirates awful start. Pittsburgh has hit one jack this year and it came in the first inning against the Dodgers yesterday. The Pirates never scored again. In six games, Pittsburgh has scored eight runs while striking out 54 times and drawing 14 walks. Combined, the Pirates are batting .119 and that’s after opening the season at home with three games against the Cubbies. These Pirates are seeing BB’s right now and it puts a lot of pressure on the starter to be near perfect, knowing that run support is scarce. Wandy Rodriguez has somewhat stable skills but a four-year trend of declining strikeouts is getting disconcerting with the effects seen in his quality starts/poor starts trend. Rodriguez did a reasonable job of compensating with better control but that's a more tenuous path to success. His swinging strike rate the last four years was 9.2%, 8.8%, 8.5% and finally 7.0% last year. Don’t let Rodriguez’s first start fool you either. He threw 6.2 innings of two hit, shutout ball against the Cubbies, who are hitting a combined .175. His groundball/fly-ball split in that start was 20%/73%. At age 34, the luster on Rodriguez is fading fast.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
By contrast, the Diamondbacks have scored 37 runs in six games, they’re hitting a combined .293 and they’ve gone yard nine times. Arizona is now 5-1 and sweeping the Brewers in Milwaukee over the weekend and they’re playing with fire in their eyes. Trevor Cahill took the loss in his first start of the year against St. Louis. In that contest his groundball rate was 57% but an unlucky strand rate of 67% did him in. Not to worry. Cahill saw his groundball rate increase to an elite 61% in 2012. His fastball velocity jumped +1.2 mph in 2012 and his swinging strike rate jumped from 7.6% in 2011 to 9.3% in 2012. Cahill is so close to emerging as one of the league’s finest pitchers. The Pirates woes continue here and it’s likely to get ugly. Play: Arizona -1½ +150 (Risking 2 units).
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