Tuesday: Reversal in Philly YTD: 22-11-2, + 28.57 units

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Monday: 2-0 + 6.18 units (Arizona game pending). Maholm and Harvey were as good as advertised.

Phillies -1(-124) 3 units. Forget what Harvey did to the Phils tonight, their bats are heating up. In the Royals series you could see that. No one could hit Harvey tonight, not even the '27' Yankees. Dillon Gee pitched really well vs. the woeful Padres, but lifetime he has been dead meat vs. this group of Philly hitters. The Phillies lineup just needs Ryan Howard to get going and they can be a force. Knocking around the tough Royals bullpen, and some of their starters is a good sign. The Mets got to Halladay tonight, but he is looking old and ineffective. The main reason I like this is that Cliff Lee is pitching like his old dominating self, both in preseason and in his last start. Even though his lifetime stats aren't very good vs. the Mets, in his last 5 starts vs. NY he pitched 36 IPs, 10 runs, with 40 Ks. Each of the starts were very good or quality. The Mets lineup has some holes in it that can exploit the weaker pitchers, but I think they'll struggle vs. Lee. Besides the Phils are at home and their veteran club knows that this season can get away from them early.
 

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Kc Royals -1 (-103). 2 units. I would take this at 3 units except I'm not sure if Greg Holland is screwed up or just had a couple of bad, outlier outings. Jeremy Guthrie is reborn in KC, and is probably the only pitcher this year to shut down the White Sox. He is pitching better than even his best days in Baltimore. He had great spring, right now the Twins are not getting much out of the top and bottom of their lineup. Mike Pelfrey had a good first outing vs. Detroit, but only had 1 K. Based on his terrible spring, I think that start was an example of getting lucky with where the balls were hit. Pelfrey's manager said he was a work in progress this spring and got shelled in his last spring start. The Royals had a nice comeback win today, and could light up Pelfrey- as they haven't seen a really mediocre starter in a while. Pelfrey is coming off Tommy John surgery and has not regained his velocity yet. Also, the Royals are at home, and for the first time in years, feel like they can compete. Royals have the bullpen edge if Holland isn't messed up.
 

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Colorado. ML (+143). One unit. The Rockies lineup can destroy right-handed pitching, and Lincecum is struggling. He walked 7 vs. the Dodgers in his first start and did not have a good spring. The Rockies are way more potent that the overpaid Dodgers, and +143 seems like a generous number. Nicasio goes for Colorado, and has great stuff, but has command issues at times. He could be an ace of their staff if he learns to command better. Sinker, slider, good fastball. The Giants have couple of hot hitters, but mostly they haven't gotten going.
 

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Miami ML(+162). One unit. Other than Justin Upton, the Braves' hitting looks anemic. Upton is 2-16 lifetime vs. lefty LeBlanc. LeBlanc has a repertoire of soft tossing breaking pitches, and his change-up is really slow. But he mixes his pitches well enough to stay competitive. Miami's lineup actually looks more potent than the Braves, though Maholm completely shut them down. Kris Medlen had control issues in the spring and again his first outing of the year. Miami, though, has stayed competitive this season, and have some hitters than can be dangerous if Medlen is off his game.
 

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Arizona loses. Updated record. 2-1, + 3.18 units YTD: 22-12-2, + 25.57 units
 

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With you on COL: Took them +220 to lead after 4.5 and win the game. And -115 over 3 team total.
Like you said Lincecum struggled in spring training and LAD was pretty much the only team he dominated last year, too. So not buying in his performance in gm1, esp. since he walked 7: COL is rather patient and if he keeps walking guys, I'm quite confident that they wouldn't be stranded on base by the Rockies since they hit him quite well. Tulo has struggled, hitting just 10/44 with just 1HR. But CarGo is 12/39 with 2 doubles, 3 triples and a HR, while Helton hit 14/39 with 4 doubles and 1HR. Also the guys, that were added to the Rockies lineup last year, hit Lincecum really good in their (few) at bats: Cuddyer is 4/8 with 3 doubles, Nelson 4/6, Pacheco 5/14 with 2 doubles, Herrera 6/21 and Rosario 4/9 with 2 doubles and a HR.
So besides Tulowitzki there is just Fowler (6/32, 1 double and triple) struggling, the rest had pretty good success vs Lincecum in the past.
COL also scored 4, 8, 7, 5, 6 and 9 runs vs right-handed SPs so far this season (albeit in way more hitter friendly environments like Miller Park & Coors Field) and they scored 17, 5, 3, 3, 3 and 3 runs in games started by Tiny Timmy last season.
Umpire will be Wegner, who sports a rather small strike zone, so not exactly a scenario you want to face when you're struggling with control & pitch location like Lincecum is currently doing.


@o fred: What do you think about NYY today? Actually like Pettitte, shut down BOS and had a good outing vs CLE last year (4IP, just 64pitches, 3H, 1BB, 2R, 1ER, 7K). NYY also scored 3+ in games started by RHP so far this year and also scored a bunch late vs Scherzer, then 7 vs Verlander and 11 tonight, so their lineup finally seems to settle in a bit.
One of CLEs hottest hitters (Santana) might be out for this game, too. But what scares me: Last year CLE was pretty bad vs LHP, ranked 20+ in AVG, OBP & SLG, but they added Swisher, Stubbs & Reynolds, who all have better splits vs LHP and so far they have been one of the best teams vs left-handed pitching, putting up 8 vs Buehrle @TOR and then 13 @TAM vs Price, after getting shut out by Moore. Just seems odd to get Pettitte at that price vs Carrasco, who was hit hard by the Yankees in their 2nd (and last) encounter and barely made the rotation as a #5 starter.
 

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Love your colorado play. You must have got them last night when the price was +143. I almost bet them last night but decided to sleep on it and they moved to +120 so I backed off. You were smart to jump when you did because I think they tee off tonight. And SF bat's looked bad last night even in the win.

You're a solid capper keep up the good work
 

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With you on COL: Took them +220 to lead after 4.5 and win the game. And -115 over 3 team total.
Like you said Lincecum struggled in spring training and LAD was pretty much the only team he dominated last year, too. So not buying in his performance in gm1, esp. since he walked 7: COL is rather patient and if he keeps walking guys, I'm quite confident that they wouldn't be stranded on base by the Rockies since they hit him quite well. Tulo has struggled, hitting just 10/44 with just 1HR. But CarGo is 12/39 with 2 doubles, 3 triples and a HR, while Helton hit 14/39 with 4 doubles and 1HR. Also the guys, that were added to the Rockies lineup last year, hit Lincecum really good in their (few) at bats: Cuddyer is 4/8 with 3 doubles, Nelson 4/6, Pacheco 5/14 with 2 doubles, Herrera 6/21 and Rosario 4/9 with 2 doubles and a HR.
So besides Tulowitzki there is just Fowler (6/32, 1 double and triple) struggling, the rest had pretty good success vs Lincecum in the past.
COL also scored 4, 8, 7, 5, 6 and 9 runs vs right-handed SPs so far this season (albeit in way more hitter friendly environments like Miller Park & Coors Field) and they scored 17, 5, 3, 3, 3 and 3 runs in games started by Tiny Timmy last season.
Umpire will be Wegner, who sports a rather small strike zone, so not exactly a scenario you want to face when you're struggling with control & pitch location like Lincecum is currently doing.



@o fred: What do you think about NYY today? Actually like Pettitte, shut down BOS and had a good outing vs CLE last year (4IP, just 64pitches, 3H, 1BB, 2R, 1ER, 7K). NYY also scored 3+ in games started by RHP so far this year and also scored a bunch late vs Scherzer, then 7 vs Verlander and 11 tonight, so their lineup finally seems to settle in a bit.
One of CLEs hottest hitters (Santana) might be out for this game, too. But what scares me: Last year CLE was pretty bad vs LHP, ranked 20+ in AVG, OBP & SLG, but they added Swisher, Stubbs & Reynolds, who all have better splits vs LHP and so far they have been one of the best teams vs left-handed pitching, putting up 8 vs Buehrle @TOR and then 13 @TAM vs Price, after getting shut out by Moore. Just seems odd to get Pettitte at that price vs Carrasco, who was hit hard by the Yankees in their 2nd (and last) encounter and barely made the rotation as a #5 starter.
Sorry, but wasn't around today to check out the Indians pitcher thoroughly. I hope you played it, Yanks winning easily. Carrasco looks to be a starter only due to a few injuries- and that's always a good sign when going against.
 

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Hey fred. Great record you have going. Im newer to betting baseball and was wondering if when you say -1 you are talking about the run line. I only ask because my current books run lines are 1 1/2 . Thanks for the info and keep up the great work.
 

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Hey fred. Great record you have going. Im newer to betting baseball and was wondering if when you say -1 you are talking about the run line. I only ask because my current books run lines are 1 1/2 . Thanks for the info and keep up the great work.

place half your bet on the moneyline and half your bet on the -1.5 and that will be -1 for you
 

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place half your bet on the moneyline and half your bet on the -1.5 and that will be -1 for you
More precisely: Put the potential winnings of your moneyline bet on the -1.5 runline and you get a -1 bet. So if you already know how much money you want to bet in total, you need to calculate a bit, but not hard to do.
 
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some of the sharpest (best) books offer -1 lines, not the regular ML and -1.5 RL bets that 99% only offer
 

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More precisely: Put the potential winnings of your moneyline bet on the -1.5 runline and you get a -1 bet. So if you already know how much money you want to bet in total, you need to calculate a bit, but not hard to do.

So when fred is saying 3 units that man hes risking 3 units to win whatever and not putting up whatever money to win 3 units. So 1.5 units would go on the money line and then whatever i would win from that I put on the run line. Is that correct?
 

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