4 Tuesday w/analysis

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DETROIT -116 over Toronto

[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Blue Jays go out and spend millions on high end talent and then decide to hire a low-end manager in John Gibbons. That was a big mistake. Gibbons is more interested in being one of the guys than being the boss of the clubhouse. He’s a laid back manager that made poor baseball decisions in his previous stint with the Blue Jays and nothing has changed. There are more problems too. Jose Bautista has already missed time and Brett Lawrie still hasn't seen time. What's worse is that their replacements are unsuited for full-time play. Rajai Davis is a career sub and should remain as one. Mark DeRosa is a complete stiff that isn’t even an average hitter against righties or lefties. Melky Cabrera has been the worst full-time position player on the team thus far and Adam Lind can’t hit lefties and against righties, Lind has reached base in three of 18 plate appearances. The Blue Jays infield defense has been atrocious and now they’re about to face perhaps the toughest pitcher of the one’s they’ve faced already.
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Detroit acquired Anibal Sanchez when Miami decided its fans were unworthy of watching competitive baseball. Sanchez gained 1.5 mph on his fastball between the 1H of 2012 and the 2H, more than all but one SP (Justin Masterson +2.0 mph). He posted elite skills right across the board last year and could be even better this year. Sanchez will be overshadowed due to the depth of the Detroit rotation but he hasn't reached his ceiling yet.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Brandon Morrow had the breakout in 2012 that we were all waiting for but there are reasons to be concerned heading into 2013. His swinging strike rate dipped from an elite 11.5% in 2011 to 9.0% in 2012. He also was helped by a fortunate 26% hit % in 2012. An oblique strain in 2012 might have contributed to some of his skill decline. Morrow’s first start of the year looks pretty on paper (6 IP, 6H, 1 ER 2 BB 8 K’s) but it was mostly pure luck, as his line-drive rate in that opening game was 40% and his GB/FB split was 33%/27%. Morrow has never lived up to expectations and with the Blue Jays reeling he’ll be feeling more pressure than ever. The Blue Jays could be in trouble and we get the benefit of all the hype once again in this short price. Play: Detroit -116 (Risking 2 units). [/FONT]
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Oakland +141 over L.A. ANGELS
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Angels and Blue Jays were the AL’s most hyped up teams in the off-season and neither has impressed so far. The Angels come in with a 2-4 record after losing two of three at both Cincinnati and Texas, two of the best hitter’s parks in the majors. The Angels scored four runs or less in five of those six games while batting a combined .250 and striking out 56 times. The evolution of C. J. Wilson from late inning reliever into a 200+ inning a year work horse has been remarkable to behold and his success the past three seasons is an endorsement of the unique blend of skills he possesses. However the atrophy of these skills, particularly his control and strikeout rate are worrisome given Wilson's limited track record as a starter. If he can continue to elude the powers of regression, Wilson has shown that he can be a very effective arm but the trends here are heading in the wrong direction and he’s coming off October elbow surgery. In his first start of the year, Wilson walked four and struck out four in six innings.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Meanwhile, the A’s continue to go about their business and they do so under the radar. They’re off to another good start, having won five of their first seven games and belting out 12 bombs in the process. Oakland has scored six runs or more in five straight games. Jarrod Parker took one of Oakland’s losses when he was lit up in Seattle but we’re not concerned about one start. Parker went 13-8 with a 3.47 ERA in 181 IP for the A’s last season. His very successful rookie season was backed by worthy skills. Parker’s 2H skill gains (better control and higher groundball rate) show how he mastered on-the-job training and he put it all together with an elite September. Parker’s average fastball velocity increased from 92.0 mph in the 1H to 92.8 mph in the 2H. Another year removed from Tommy John surgery, Parker has the goods to become a rotation anchor in 2013 and he and the A’s offer up some pretty sweet value here. It’s also worth noting that Oakland has won seven of the past nine meetings at this venue. Play: Oakland +141 (Risking 2 units). [/FONT]
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Los Angeles/SAN DIEGO over 6½ -116
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Did you know that the fences in San Diego have been moved in? If you didn’t, you know now and the oddsmakers have not adjusted. That provides us with a great opportunity. From the right-field porch to the right-center gap, the fence has been moved in from 402 feet to 391 feet and lowered to match the rest of the outfield wall. The out-of-town scoreboard on the right-field wall will be relocated to a new spot above right field as part of seating modifications. In left-center, the fence will be moved in from 402 feet to 390 feet. The dimensions will remain the same down the left-field line (336 feet), right-field line (322) and straightaway center (396). The vast outfield at Petco Park will no longer be a place where long fly balls go to die. No pitcher has benefited more from pitching at Petco than today’s starter, Clayton Richard. Richard has a career 4.12 ERA in 721 IP. Career at PETCO Park: 2.82 ERA in 284 IP. When the workers showed up to move the fences in this winter, they discovered that this guy has shackled himself to the fence somewhere around left-center field. And who could blame him? His non-PETCO career ERA is 5.05.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Josh Beckett lost his first start of the year last Wednesday after giving up five runs over six innings while striking out four Giants' batters. He also surrendered two jacks. Beckett’s skills have been on the decline for four years. With runners on base, his skills erode even more, as hitter’s batted .313 against him runners on last year. Also with runners on, Beckett’s BB/9 were 4.64 and his K’s/9 were just 1.21. Overall, Beckett’s skills are a tick above the league average but this total is representative of the history of Petco Park and two elite starter’s matching up. One has to figure more runs will be scored at the new Petco. That’s precisely what the intention was when they moved the fences in and we should see immediate results of that here. Play: over 6½ -116 (Risking 2 units). [/FONT]
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N.Y. Mets +167 over PHILADELPHIA

[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Cliff Lee needs no introductions. He was brilliant in his first start against Atlanta and chances are he’ll be good again the entire season. Forget Lee’s win total from last season. This was virtually the same season as 2011. Philly averaged 4.2 runs per game last year yet scored less than that in 21 of Lee’s 30 starts. That's just horrible support. He may see some age-related decline but odds are he'll still be close to elite starter status. That said, we can’t get on board with these Phillies spotting a price like this. Philadelphia has two wins in seven games and one of those wins came in the ninth inning against K.C. when Greg Holland walked the bases loaded in the ninth with a 3-1 lead. The Phillies should be 1-6. Philadelphia is batting a combined .244 and they’ve hit just four jacks in seven games. This is a team that is not to be trusted when favored by this much, especially against a solid pitcher like the one they’ll face here.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Dillon Gee piqued our interest a bit heading into 2012, but a blood clot shut him down for the season after just 17 starts. Several factors place Gee on our breakout list. First, the 4.10 ERA from 2012 was somewhat misleading. As Gee’s xERA says (3.54) it was undeserved. Second, Gee vastly improved his walk rate in 2012, nearly shaving it in half against 2011 totals. Third, at the same time, Gee struck out more batters, nearing the strong strikeout rate of his minor-league days. Fourth, his ground-ball ways, which were already strong, improved in 2012. Like other half-year wonders, Gee will need to prove it over a whole season, and coming off an injury, no less. But so far reports are good, and if his control gains hold, he has high profit potential and it could certainly begin here. Play: N.Y. Mets +167 (Risking 2 units). [/FONT][/FONT]
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great stuff sherwood..

Your thread should be the most viewed one here.. You provide such great analysis with your plays.
 

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Very nice pick on Detroit. Most on this forum went the other way.

I like your athletics play tonight. Bol
 

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great stuff sherwood..

Your thread should be the most viewed one here.. You provide such great analysis with your plays.


Couldn't agree more. Best, most insightful analysis on here. Even when the picks don't work out, the logic behind the plays is always solid. Great call on the Tigers today with Sanchez pitching 7 strong innings with 8 ks. Good Luck with the night games as well.
 

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Thanks guys. You can always follow me on twitter and you'll be instantly notified when plays are posted. Am I allowed to say that here?
 
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Couldn't agree more. Best, most insightful analysis on here. Even when the picks don't work out, the logic behind the plays is always solid. Great call on the Tigers today with Sanchez pitching 7 strong innings with 8 ks. Good Luck with the night games as well.

Exactly, the world needs more sherwoods...
 

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