Wednesday: These Losers Might Win YTD: 24-13-2, + 29.57 units

ofred · Apr 10, 2013

Tuesday: 2-1, + 4 units (Colorado pending but winning 5-2). Well, Greg Holland almost cost me another game.

Toronto. ML(+114) The Blue Jays aren't this bad. Mark Buehrle had an outstanding year last year, and ended spring training the same way- pitching well. Even though his first start was poor, I expect he'll rebound here against the wildly inconsistent Tigers. He is the kind of crafty veteran lefty that Detroit has struggled with. The Blue Jays have hit .444 vs. Porcello lifetime with a fairly large sample size. Porcello's first start also didn't go well, and seems to lose his focus at least once in each game. Blue Jays also have a bullpen edge.

San Diego. ML (+109). One unit. Chad Billingsley might not really be ready to pitch in the majors. His last rehab start at Class A was a bit rough, and he is just beginning to throw his off-speed stuff. This could be the "real" rehab start. Stults, meanwhile has pitched both well in the spring, and had a very strong start vs. the Mets. He has a large repertoire of off speed stuff and commands it well. Neither team is really hitting well. The Padres are finally at home, and more than happy to beat up on the overpaid, overrated SoCal rivals. SD has a substantial bullpen edge.

ofred · Apr 10, 2013

Arizona -1.(-116) One unit. Not convinced that the Pirates have broken their slump. Brandon McCarthy is pitching badly at this time, and Cahill last night had one bad inning. I think Wade Miley will shut them down. He is surprisingly a better pitcher at home, a hitter's park. Miley possesses a nasty slider and good command. He started last season very hot, and it's possible this season will be the same. Pittsburgh also hit poorly vs. LHP last year. The Pirates pitcher, Jonathan Sanchez is trying to reclaim his career, and had a nice first start. But his velocity is down from his glory years, and he is prone to lose control at any time. He gets rattled when giving up base runners, and things can snowball. Only 2 Pirate hitters are really hitting well, McCutcheon and Marte.

ofred · Apr 10, 2013

Milwaukee. ML (-116). One unit. This is an anti-Scott Feldman, anti- Cub bullpen play. Granted, the Brewers bullpen is equally bad, but Lohse will give them a far better effort than Feldman. Feldman has no real out pitch, and will not get far into this game. Also, with Braun back in the Brewer lineup, and Aoki red hot, they can score some runs. The Cubs took advantage of John Axford's incredible suckiness, and won today- but I doubt they'll see Axford tomorrow, and will renew their hitting slump.

ShortBusDriver7 · Apr 10, 2013

jinxed yourself on colorado

ReBorn · Apr 10, 2013

Ugh I'm on Rockies and A's. they shittin the bed right now HARD

Bigtomdawg · Apr 10, 2013

nice season so far o fred.

one unit on the jays?

BORO · Apr 10, 2013

Great job again o fred.

L3G3NDARY · Apr 10, 2013

gl today Fred

PatsFanatic · Apr 10, 2013

o fred said:
Tuesday: 2-1, + 4 units (Colorado pending but winning 5-2). Well, Greg Holland almost cost me another game.

Toronto. ML(+114) The Blue Jays aren't this bad. Mark Buehrle had an outstanding year last year, and ended spring training the same way- pitching well. Even though his first start was poor, I expect he'll rebound here against the wildly inconsistent Tigers. He is the kind of crafty veteran lefty that Detroit has struggled with. The Blue Jays have hit .444 vs. Porcello lifetime with a fairly large sample size. Porcello's first start also didn't go well, and seems to lose his focus at least once in each game. Blue Jays also have a bullpen edge.

San Diego. ML (+109). One unit. Chad Billingsley might not really be ready to pitch in the majors. His last rehab start at Class A was a bit rough, and he is just beginning to throw his off-speed stuff. This could be the "real" rehab start. Stults, meanwhile has pitched both well in the spring, and had a very strong start vs. the Mets. He has a large repertoire of off speed stuff and commands it well. Neither team is really hitting well. The Padres are finally at home, and more than happy to beat up on the overpaid, overrated SoCal rivals. SD has a substantial bullpen edge.

That Toronto bet a 1 unit as well Fred??

L3G3NDARY · Apr 10, 2013

i am pretty sure that is a one unit play, but obv Fred will confirm...

*was going to ask the same question lol

ReBorn · Apr 10, 2013

Doing a great job Ofred. I love Toronto too but having trouble finding my balls to pull the trigger. Gotta cap a little bit longer on this game. Knowing myself ill prob ride the Jays

Vituperate · Apr 10, 2013

thanks fred always...gotta assume that TOR is 1 unit as well?

bol all

Soriano12 · Apr 10, 2013

Once again agreeing with you on most everything:
Took ARI -1 -113 and took MIL +0 (1st 5) -117 because I want no part of the Brewers pen (although both bullpens are equally bad). Not much to add to what you already said except that PIT so far has done absolutely nothing vs LHP and Miley (at least in my opinion) is way better than the Cubs' Wood and also better than what Ryu so far has been showing. So don't see any reason why they should hit Miley, who shut them down last year. Hill & Kubel out, but they are hitless vs LHP and at least Kubel sits out vs LHP almost always.

Didn't take SD since I'm not sure what to expect from Billingsley, who has pretty good numbers vs SD and the Padres offense without Headley is bad. So instead of ML I took LAD team total under 3.5 +104 since they (like PIT) don't hit LHP: Didn't last year and so far this year got shut out by Bumgarner, scored 3 vs Sanchez, 6 vs Locke and 3 vs Richard. And in those games, 2 runs came after Sanchez was pulled out of the game, 2 came after Locke got pulled and 1 after Richard.
Stults looked good last year, not overpowering at all, but various good breaking balls and keeps hitters off balance, good control and imo just not a good fit for the LAD lineup. Also strong spring + first start @NYM, Petco will help any pitcher (even more so because it's a night game) and he held the Dodgers to a single run last season in their only encounter.

JustinCruise · Apr 10, 2013

Soriano12 said:
Once again agreeing with you on most everything:
Took ARI -1 -113 and took MIL +0 (1st 5) -117 because I want no part of the Brewers pen (although both bullpens are equally bad). Not much to add to what you already said except that PIT so far has done absolutely nothing vs LHP and Miley (at least in my opinion) is way better than the Cubs' Wood and also better than what Ryu so far has been showing. So don't see any reason why they should hit Miley, who shut them down last year. Hill & Kubel out, but they are hitless vs LHP and at least Kubel sits out vs LHP almost always.

Didn't take SD since I'm not sure what to expect from Billingsley, who has pretty good numbers vs SD and the Padres offense without Headley is bad. So instead of ML I took LAD team total under 3.5 +104 since they (like PIT) don't hit LHP: Didn't last year and so far this year got shut out by Bumgarner, scored 3 vs Sanchez, 6 vs Locke and 3 vs Richard. And in those games, 2 runs came after Sanchez was pulled out of the game, 2 came after Locke got pulled and 1 after Richard.
Stults looked good last year, not overpowering at all, but various good breaking balls and keeps hitters off balance, good control and imo just not a good fit for the LAD lineup. Also strong spring + first start @NYM, Petco will help any pitcher (even more so because it's a night game) and he held the Dodgers to a single run last season in their only encounter.

I think lohse can go 7 or 8 today

Weather looking like that game may not go though

Soriano12 · Apr 10, 2013

Bold statement since he pitched more than 7IP just 6times in his last 60 starts and never vs the Cubs (at least in the last 5 years). But you're right, weather doesn't look good and esp. with them playing a couple more series against each other in the next months, I can easily see them reschedule a makeup game later this year.

ofred · Apr 10, 2013

Updated record prior to today's games: 24-14, + 28.57 units.

Toronto was one unit. I wasn't home to confirm.

Scott602 · Apr 10, 2013

Ofred any thoughts on the Angels tonight? Maybe sprinkle a little on the RL

ofred · Apr 10, 2013

Add: KC TT over 4 (-130). One unit. Liam Hendriks against this lineup should mean runs. He got roughed up in his first start, and last year was home run magnet. 85 IPs, 106 hits, 61 runs(some unearned), and 17 HRs. That's a homer every 5 innings. The Royals are .391 vs. Hendriks, and have seen him plenty being in the same division. Also, the Twins used up 2 middle relievers last night(Swarzak was very effective), and won't have them available tonight- so Hendriks might be hung out to dry longer. The Royals have only struggled to hit this year vs. very good starters.

ofred · Apr 10, 2013

Scott602 said:
Ofred any thoughts on the Angels tonight? Maybe sprinkle a little on the RL

Joe-Bob Blanton has looked steadily worse over the past 2 years. He used to be a serviceable 4th or 5th starter, but not anymore. Milone, for Oakland, also pitches poorly on the road and vs. LA. No play for me.

ReBorn · Apr 10, 2013

O Fred. I gave u props in my thread for twisting my arm on KC TT. I loved it earlier but wasn't sure. After reading your post u made up my mind so if it hits, credit to u for changing my mind. U a beast cuz!

Wednesday: These Losers Might Win YTD: 24-13-2, + 29.57 units

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