| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 1 | 0.00 | +4.26 |
| Last 30 Days | 13 | 16 | 2 | -3.66 |
| Season to Date | 13 | 16 | 2 | -3.66 |
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All games are for 2 units.
Houston +150 over SEATTLE
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st five innings. [/FONT]There was something in the air yesterday as just about every game went over the total and you probably could’ve got about 50,000-1 against the Astros scoring 16 times at Safeco. Thing is, the Astros will be “free-rolling” the entire season because they’re expected to lose about 90% of their games. Houston is loose, they’re loaded with young and enthusiastic players that are just thrilled to be playing at this level and they’re having the time of their lives. Coming off a 16-run outburst, the Astros figure to be just a little extra jacked up to get back into action. Brad Peacock makes his second start of the year after throwing 4.1 innings in Oakland in which the kid didn’t look too bad with a BAA of .188. Though he never posted an ERA under 4.15 prior to the '11 campaign, the 23-year-old has been one of the top pitchers in baseball. He was leading the Double-A Eastern League in wins, ERA, and strikeouts prior to his promotion to Triple-A. Improved and more consistent velocity is one reason for Peacock's success, but it is also the evolution of his secondary stuff and better command. His fastball sits between 89-96 mph and his slider is one of the better breaking pitches in the Astros system. Peacock can pitch up and be subject to HR, but he continues to improve in that regard. Once he hones his changeup, he could become a mainstay in the rotation, potentially as a #2 starter. Peacock posted very good minor league numbers at Syracuse (AAA) 9 games, 5-1, 3.19 ERA, .205 oppBA and has much more upside than his counterpart here, Blake Beavan.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Blake Beavan pitches about as well as Lindsay Lohan handles her money in Hollywood after a bender. Beavan is the equivalent of batting practice. He rarely strikes out a batter and rarely walks anyone meaning he’s at the mercy of his defense. Beavan’s first start of the year agauinst the South Side was typical in that he walked none struck out two and allowed five runs in five innings. Frankly, that’s all you’re going to get from him. If balls are hit right at fielders, he’ll escape but he’s just as likely to give up three runs in an inning as getting three outs. In 41 games started over the past two years covering 249 innings, Beavan has 109 K’s, which is less than one every two innings. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate over that same span was 38%/23%/39%. Beavan is a huge risk and doubly so when spotting a ridiculous price on him like the one here. [/FONT]
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Tampa Bay +120 over TEXAS
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st five innings. This one is all about putting our money on Matt Moore and it’s for that reason we’ll play it in the first five innings only. Back to Moore in a minute while we look at Derek Holland. Holland’s shoulder fatigue derailed any possibility for growth last season. Blame his ERA spike on 17% hr/f vs. RH bats and unsupportive strand percentage. Holland’s positive BA trend vs. RH confirms he's otherwise making gains but enough to back him as a significant favorite over Matt Moore. In his first start of the year against the struggling Halos, Holland went seven innings and allowed just six hits and one run. That line hides his below the surface numbers, which were a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 30%/35%/35% and that should have Holland backers a bit worried. There were a lot of hard hit balls hit right at people and that played into a fortunate hit % in that start. Also noteworthy is that the Rays are third in the majors with a BA of .297 against southpaws.[FONT=arial !important]
Matt Moore’s rookie campaign looks like a letdown if measured against all the projections and hype, but by most standards it was successful. A sudden spike in Moore’s control was problematic and reminiscent of his pre-2011 work in lower minors. However, an elite strikeout rate, a well-managed workload and health all say "invest" and that’s precisely what we’re doing. Moore was brilliant in his debut, striking out eight while giving up two hits, two walks and not allowing a single run against a pretty decent hitting Indians squad. Pitching at Texas (+33% LHB HR, +19% RHB HR) is no easy task but Moore's high strikeout rate can play anywhere, especially if he continues to limit the free passes. With top-tier raw stuff, Moore is good value when being offered a tag and that applies here.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]ARIZONA -1½ +121 over Pittsburgh
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Give the Pirates some credit for bouncing back from a rough start then coming in here and taking the first two games of this series. Pittsburgh did some damage to two right-handed starters in Trevor Cahill and Brandon McCarthy but something a little different awaits them here in that they’ll be facing a southpaw. Pittsburgh has six hits in 73 AB’s against lefties this season for a combined BA of .082. They are also 0-3 against left-handers and current Pirates have just seven hits in 33 career AB’s against Wade Miley for a BA of .212. Wiley made significant gains in both his control and strikeout rates last year in his run for NL Rookie of The Year. He was especially tough on LH, who have just 1 HR against him in 196 career AB. Miley threw a six-inning, five-hit, eight strikeouts gem in his first start of the year against the Brewers and in that start his groundball rate was 58%. Wiley has made progressive gains in every month he’s pitched in the majors and his skills are trending towards the elite. In this start, Miley will be involved in a pitching mismatch and it’s in his favor.[FONT=arial !important]
Enter Jonathan Sanchez, who went five innings in his first start against the Dodgers and gave up six hits and three runs. However, this isn’t the Dodgers and this isn’t Dodger Stadium. Sanchez may not go five innings again the rest of the year. Biceps tendinitis plagued Sanchez most, if not all, of the season. Colorado acquired him mid-year in a deal that could not possibly end well. Never a control wizard, he'd now need a 15 k/9 to be viable. Lefties had .857 OPS vs Sanchez, so even a specialist role may not be possible. Sanchez has spent his entire career pitching in spacious, pitcher-friendly home venues in SF and KC. He now moves to a ballpark which enhances scoring by 25%. He lacks a strong GB tendency, as his FB% and GB% are historically relatively equal, as currently reflected in his career 40% FB% and 42% GB%. An 8.07 ERA last year, control issues, two consecutive years of dealing with left biceps tendinitis, a line drive rate of 35% in his first start this year and several other red flags make Sanchez a starter you want to avoid. He’s not lasting five innings today.[/FONT]
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