[h=1]Best value bets at Augusta[/h][h=3]Is Tiger Woods a good value at 3-1? Plus, long shots and prop bets[/h]
By Alf Musketa | ESPN Insider
The first major of 2013 is here, and for golf bettors it's one of the best opportunities to wager on matchups, props and future book odds. There are roughly five times the normal number of PGA Tour matchups available at sports books, along with round-by-round props and plenty of chances to hedge your bets if needed.
The Augusta National Golf Club is a par 72 and can stretch out to 7,435 yards. Each year the committee makes changes to the course, but for handicapping purposes, they are not significant enough to mention this season. One thing to keep an eye on is the weather. If the early forecasts are accurate (40 percent chance of rain Thursday and 50 percent on Friday), soft conditions will make the course play very long and we can begin to eliminate or bet against the short hitters such as Tim Clark, David Toms and Ben Curtis.
But the big storyline heading into Thursday is, of course, the play of Tiger Woods, who has won three tournaments this year and reclaimed the No. 1 world ranking. At 3-1, he is the odds-on favorite to win at Augusta, but does he represent the best betting value?
Let's take a closer look at the odds. Here are my contenders and long shots to win the first major of the year, along with some matchup advice and prop bets.
Odds courtesy of William Hill Sports Book, Las Vegas
[h=3]Contenders[/h]Tiger Woods (3-1)
There is no better player in golf from the fairway to the flag, and if Tiger finds the fairway consistently on the six-plus holes at Augusta that require a draw (holes that are set up with a dogleg that bends right to left), the rest of the field will be playing for second place.
<offer>However, as we have seen numerous times this season with the new and improved Sean Foley swing/move, it's clear that Woods is cutting across his body, trying to swing left and keep the club face square. Sure, it has helped Tiger's swing, but no matter how much control he has with this move, he struggles to draw or hook the golf ball. He may decide to use a 3 or 5 wood that has more loft on some tees, but we know Tiger; he can't stand to lay back and not take advantage of the par 5s at Augusta. This is the most critical part of Tiger's game that will determine if he wins here and now, because everything else in his game looks good.
All that being said, it's difficult to invest in Tiger at this price. A better bet is one that I've made many times, which is to lay minus-200 or less when he has the lead after 36 holes (27 of 32 wins) or bet him after 54 holes (53 of 56 wins). If you must bet Tiger, shop around and you'll notice that the bigger sports books that get the most golf wagering action will have the best odds.
Phil Mickelson (10-1)
If Mickelson's coach Butch Harmon is present at Augusta, Mickelson stands his best chance to win this week because we've noticed his game improves dramatically when they work together at a tournament site. Harmon will get Mickelson's swing tighter, not long and across the line, and his rhythm also improves. Mickelson went back to his standard putting grip at the Shell Houston Open and finished tied for 16th, which was vastly better than his previous event with the claw putting grip, in which he missed the cut (plus-8) at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Playing in the final group at Augusta last year, Mickelson was potentially one swing away from winning his fourth green jacket. An errant tee shot on the par-3 fourth hole led to a triple-bogey and his chances faded quickly. Despite that final round, I think you'll see a fresh, focused player that has only finished out of the top 10 twice here since 1999.
Ian Poulter (30-1)
I like the fact that Poulter decided to play the Valero Texas Open last week and prep his game via tournament competition. He made the cut, but you could tell his mind was on Augusta and looking to improve on his seventh-place finish last year. Poulter ranks 19th on tour in strokes gained putting, and you need to be a deadly putter to have any chance of winning on these lightning-fast greens.
[h=3]Long shots[/h]
Henrik Stenson (50-1)
I was at the WGC Accenture Match Play event in February and watched Stenson put on a driving clinic with his new R1 driver. He hit it long and straight. (Yes he also hits his 3 wood pretty well, too.) Current form is the No. 1 handicapping factor to selecting long shots and matchups, and Stenson is coming into this tournament in the best form he's had in years. Stenson birdied three of his past four holes and posted a T-2 finish in Houston to lock up his invitation this week (prior to that, he tied for eighth at Bay Hill). He has plenty of value at this price and is my top long shot selection.
Stewart Cink (150-1)
I'll never forget the headlines in the British tabloids, when Cink defeated Tom Watson to win the '09 Open: "The man who killed Santa Claus." But since then, Cink has done little and we have been betting against him. Nevertheless, he's made five cuts in a row this season and his best finish (T-6) was recently at the Shell Houston Open. He made the cut last year here, and I like the fact that he hits a natural draw. The former Georgia Tech star and current Georgia resident has the talent and game to don a green jacket.
[h=3]Top matchup bets[/h]Rory McIlroy plus-155 over Tiger Woods
Much has been said and written about Rory's huge new Nike contract and switch in equipment. And after struggling early in the season, he has played back-to-back starts on the PGA Tour. His second-place finish at the Valero Texas Open was huge for his confidence. What I noticed most was his swing was in sync, his timing with his irons better, his full swing tighter and he finally got the driver working -- hitting booming high draw drives, which is his signature shot. Tiger, on the other hand, has taken two weeks off after winning at Bay Hill. Usually when handicapping matchups I automatically bet against anyone who has taken two weeks or more off versus a sharp current form player that I like. As I mentioned above, Tiger could defeat this field if he drives it very well, but that remains to be seen. You may never get plus-155 on Rory in a matchup again, so take it while you can.
Justin Rose minus-150 over Luke Donald
By the time you read this, Rose should be well above minus-160, but even at that price I believe there is value in this matchup because Donald doesn't have the game to win at Augusta. He's erratic, short off the tee and has one top-10 and two missed cuts at Augusta in his past five starts. Yes, he's been ranked No. 1 in the world and amazingly was the overall money leader in 2011 on two tours, but recently he ran off to Malaysia with potential guaranteed money, was the favorite in a weak field and missed the cut. Then, instead of playing at home or participating in either of the past two PGA Tour events, he has done nothing. You don't find your game at Augusta -- you need to bring it there. Rose, on the other hand, has two top-10s in his past two starts and was eighth last year here. This is a no-brainer: lay the lumber.
Stewart Cink minus-115 over Vijay Singh
Singh is on pins and needles waiting for PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem to come down with a suspension ruling, due to Singh admitting to taking the banned substance deer-antler spray. It's tough to believe his mind is only focused on the course. He hasn't missed a cut this year, but has no top-10s and just one top-20 (his very first start way back in January at the Sony Open). Singh's last start was the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he fell apart, shooting 75 and 78 on the weekend. Two weeks ago, prior to the Shell Houston Open he withdrew with a knee injury. I watched all four rounds of that tournament, and Cink looked better than I've seen him play in years. His natural draw was back and his putting stroke was solid. This line should be minus-150 or higher.
Ian Poulter minus-140 over Padraig Harrington
My golf handicapping database has a wide variety of info that you normally don't see in website stats, such as which direction players move the golf ball (draw or fade) and if they charge or die putts into the hole. I like Poulter here for several reasons, but mostly because he's aggressive on the greens when he needs to be. Harrington has gone back to a fade the past 10 months instead of a draw, and that will not help him here.
[h=3]Prop bets[/h]Will Louis Oosthuizen finish in the top 10: No -200
Oosthuizen hasn't shown any consistent form since last year's event at Augusta. A missed cut at the Tampa Bay Championship and a 33rd-place finish at Doral last month (where there was no cut) aren't good signs.
Winning 72-hole score over/under of 275.5: Under -110
I like the under here. Even par is 288, so minus-13 or better is a winner. The Augusta committee has set up the course to play easier on the weekends, as they want eagles and huge roars from the crowd on TV. And the weather looks to be perfect for the final two rounds.
</offer>
By Alf Musketa | ESPN Insider
The first major of 2013 is here, and for golf bettors it's one of the best opportunities to wager on matchups, props and future book odds. There are roughly five times the normal number of PGA Tour matchups available at sports books, along with round-by-round props and plenty of chances to hedge your bets if needed.
The Augusta National Golf Club is a par 72 and can stretch out to 7,435 yards. Each year the committee makes changes to the course, but for handicapping purposes, they are not significant enough to mention this season. One thing to keep an eye on is the weather. If the early forecasts are accurate (40 percent chance of rain Thursday and 50 percent on Friday), soft conditions will make the course play very long and we can begin to eliminate or bet against the short hitters such as Tim Clark, David Toms and Ben Curtis.
But the big storyline heading into Thursday is, of course, the play of Tiger Woods, who has won three tournaments this year and reclaimed the No. 1 world ranking. At 3-1, he is the odds-on favorite to win at Augusta, but does he represent the best betting value?
Let's take a closer look at the odds. Here are my contenders and long shots to win the first major of the year, along with some matchup advice and prop bets.
Odds courtesy of William Hill Sports Book, Las Vegas
[h=3]Contenders[/h]Tiger Woods (3-1)
There is no better player in golf from the fairway to the flag, and if Tiger finds the fairway consistently on the six-plus holes at Augusta that require a draw (holes that are set up with a dogleg that bends right to left), the rest of the field will be playing for second place.
<offer>However, as we have seen numerous times this season with the new and improved Sean Foley swing/move, it's clear that Woods is cutting across his body, trying to swing left and keep the club face square. Sure, it has helped Tiger's swing, but no matter how much control he has with this move, he struggles to draw or hook the golf ball. He may decide to use a 3 or 5 wood that has more loft on some tees, but we know Tiger; he can't stand to lay back and not take advantage of the par 5s at Augusta. This is the most critical part of Tiger's game that will determine if he wins here and now, because everything else in his game looks good.
All that being said, it's difficult to invest in Tiger at this price. A better bet is one that I've made many times, which is to lay minus-200 or less when he has the lead after 36 holes (27 of 32 wins) or bet him after 54 holes (53 of 56 wins). If you must bet Tiger, shop around and you'll notice that the bigger sports books that get the most golf wagering action will have the best odds.
Phil Mickelson (10-1)
If Mickelson's coach Butch Harmon is present at Augusta, Mickelson stands his best chance to win this week because we've noticed his game improves dramatically when they work together at a tournament site. Harmon will get Mickelson's swing tighter, not long and across the line, and his rhythm also improves. Mickelson went back to his standard putting grip at the Shell Houston Open and finished tied for 16th, which was vastly better than his previous event with the claw putting grip, in which he missed the cut (plus-8) at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Playing in the final group at Augusta last year, Mickelson was potentially one swing away from winning his fourth green jacket. An errant tee shot on the par-3 fourth hole led to a triple-bogey and his chances faded quickly. Despite that final round, I think you'll see a fresh, focused player that has only finished out of the top 10 twice here since 1999.
Ian Poulter (30-1)
I like the fact that Poulter decided to play the Valero Texas Open last week and prep his game via tournament competition. He made the cut, but you could tell his mind was on Augusta and looking to improve on his seventh-place finish last year. Poulter ranks 19th on tour in strokes gained putting, and you need to be a deadly putter to have any chance of winning on these lightning-fast greens.
[h=3]Long shots[/h]
Henrik Stenson (50-1)
I was at the WGC Accenture Match Play event in February and watched Stenson put on a driving clinic with his new R1 driver. He hit it long and straight. (Yes he also hits his 3 wood pretty well, too.) Current form is the No. 1 handicapping factor to selecting long shots and matchups, and Stenson is coming into this tournament in the best form he's had in years. Stenson birdied three of his past four holes and posted a T-2 finish in Houston to lock up his invitation this week (prior to that, he tied for eighth at Bay Hill). He has plenty of value at this price and is my top long shot selection.
Stewart Cink (150-1)
I'll never forget the headlines in the British tabloids, when Cink defeated Tom Watson to win the '09 Open: "The man who killed Santa Claus." But since then, Cink has done little and we have been betting against him. Nevertheless, he's made five cuts in a row this season and his best finish (T-6) was recently at the Shell Houston Open. He made the cut last year here, and I like the fact that he hits a natural draw. The former Georgia Tech star and current Georgia resident has the talent and game to don a green jacket.
[h=3]Top matchup bets[/h]Rory McIlroy plus-155 over Tiger Woods
Much has been said and written about Rory's huge new Nike contract and switch in equipment. And after struggling early in the season, he has played back-to-back starts on the PGA Tour. His second-place finish at the Valero Texas Open was huge for his confidence. What I noticed most was his swing was in sync, his timing with his irons better, his full swing tighter and he finally got the driver working -- hitting booming high draw drives, which is his signature shot. Tiger, on the other hand, has taken two weeks off after winning at Bay Hill. Usually when handicapping matchups I automatically bet against anyone who has taken two weeks or more off versus a sharp current form player that I like. As I mentioned above, Tiger could defeat this field if he drives it very well, but that remains to be seen. You may never get plus-155 on Rory in a matchup again, so take it while you can.
Justin Rose minus-150 over Luke Donald
By the time you read this, Rose should be well above minus-160, but even at that price I believe there is value in this matchup because Donald doesn't have the game to win at Augusta. He's erratic, short off the tee and has one top-10 and two missed cuts at Augusta in his past five starts. Yes, he's been ranked No. 1 in the world and amazingly was the overall money leader in 2011 on two tours, but recently he ran off to Malaysia with potential guaranteed money, was the favorite in a weak field and missed the cut. Then, instead of playing at home or participating in either of the past two PGA Tour events, he has done nothing. You don't find your game at Augusta -- you need to bring it there. Rose, on the other hand, has two top-10s in his past two starts and was eighth last year here. This is a no-brainer: lay the lumber.
Stewart Cink minus-115 over Vijay Singh
Singh is on pins and needles waiting for PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem to come down with a suspension ruling, due to Singh admitting to taking the banned substance deer-antler spray. It's tough to believe his mind is only focused on the course. He hasn't missed a cut this year, but has no top-10s and just one top-20 (his very first start way back in January at the Sony Open). Singh's last start was the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he fell apart, shooting 75 and 78 on the weekend. Two weeks ago, prior to the Shell Houston Open he withdrew with a knee injury. I watched all four rounds of that tournament, and Cink looked better than I've seen him play in years. His natural draw was back and his putting stroke was solid. This line should be minus-150 or higher.
Ian Poulter minus-140 over Padraig Harrington
My golf handicapping database has a wide variety of info that you normally don't see in website stats, such as which direction players move the golf ball (draw or fade) and if they charge or die putts into the hole. I like Poulter here for several reasons, but mostly because he's aggressive on the greens when he needs to be. Harrington has gone back to a fade the past 10 months instead of a draw, and that will not help him here.
[h=3]Prop bets[/h]Will Louis Oosthuizen finish in the top 10: No -200
Oosthuizen hasn't shown any consistent form since last year's event at Augusta. A missed cut at the Tampa Bay Championship and a 33rd-place finish at Doral last month (where there was no cut) aren't good signs.
Winning 72-hole score over/under of 275.5: Under -110
I like the under here. Even par is 288, so minus-13 or better is a winner. The Augusta committee has set up the course to play easier on the weekends, as they want eagles and huge roars from the crowd on TV. And the weather looks to be perfect for the final two rounds.
</offer>
