| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | +7.82 |
| Last 30 Days | 16 | 16 | 0.00 | +4.16 |
| Season to Date | 16 | 16 | 0.00 | +4.16 |
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Oakland +118 over L.A. ANGELS
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]How can you not [/FONT]take the A’s here? Here’s a team that has scored six runs or more in seven straight games and routinely go off for crooked numbers in single innings. The A’s have scored nine runs or more in three straight and they’re also undefeated on the road with a 5-0 record. You are going to see Jason Vargas’s 1.59 ERA from his first start but don’t be fooled. His xERA in that game against Texas was 4.73 after a GB/LD/FB rate of 30%/45%/25% and that’s right in line with his historical xERA over the past five years with his best mark over that span being 4.45. A soft-tossing change-of-speed and control specialist, Vargas was a workhorse in 2012, tossing a career-high 217 IP while finishing at least six innings in 27 of his 33 starts. He's out-pitched his ERA now for four consecutive seasons. Not enough GBs indicate that Vargas' 2012 3.85/.4.45 ERA/xERA combination is the ceiling. He'll eat up innings, but let xERA be your guide. Vargas is all smoke and mirrors.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]A.J. Griffin went 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA in 82 innings for the A’s last year. Griffin excelled in the upper minors and carried it over to MLB. Control is best asset, but he also misses bats reasonably and handles righties/lefties equally well. Griffin’s solid xERA does not quite jive with his shiny ERA due to unsustainable hit and strand percentages. However, even after accounting for some expected regression, Griffin has pitched quite well. We know for sure that Griffin has much more upside than Vargas and that the A’s are in much better early season from than the Halos. That’s value. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Chicago +141 over WASHINGTON
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. The Nationals are 6-2 while the White Sox are 4-4 but not a lot separates these two in terms of runs scored, runs allowed, team batting average and several other categories. The big difference is that the South Side has drawn just 13 walks the entire year, which ranks them dead last in the majors. A little more patience at the plate is something that is surely being addressed and when that number normalizes, Chicago will score more runs. There’s a good chance it’ll start here against Dan Haren. Haren’s huge ERA spike last year was due in part to a nagging back problem. While skills foundation remained consistent, the real culprit was velocity. Haren saw his fastball velocity dip 1.5 mph in 2012. In fact, it bottomed out to 88.1 mph in the 2H of 2012. In aggregate, he has lost nearly 4 mph off his fastball from when he was in his prime. Haren’s swinging strike rate over the last four seasons paints a worrisome picture: 10.7%, 10.1%, 9.9% and finally 8.7% last year. There are more red flags as well. In his first start of the year, Haren lasted just four innings and his balls in play profile painted a disturbing picture. Haren’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate in his first start was 13%/31%/56%. Of course that was in Cincinnati but it doesn’t matter when only 13% of batted balls are hit on the ground. Haren is a huge health risk with declining skills and if you decide to back him this season at these prices, we’re suggesting you get a back-up plan to offset the money he’s likely going to cost you.
[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Dylan Axelrod went 2-2 with a 5.47 ERA in 51 IP for the White Sox last year. Axelrod also had three stints in AAA and three in the majors. When he was in the majors last year, he started seven games and appeared in seven relief appearances. Is it a surprise that Axelrod’s numbers got worse in 2012, given that he was bounced around so often and never really knew what role he’d be playing? That has now changed. White Sox manager Robin Ventura indicated that Axelrod won't just receive one or two starts as the fifth starter, but he'll receive a chance to prove himself and in his first start of the year he responded by throwing 5.2 innings without allowing an earned run (the three runs he allowed were all unearned). His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate was 53%/6%/41% in that first start. Originally drafted by the Padres, Axelrod signed with the White Sox after his release in '09. He was a reliever with San Diego. Axelrod rarely allows HR. At Chicago last year, his 5.47 ERA included a 1.4 HR/9. His worst HR/9 in 6 years in the minors was 0.7. He works with a three pitch mix, including an 86-92 mph fastball, slider, and changeup. None of his offerings can be considered above average but his fastball exhibits good tailing action that can be tough to square up. He features well above average control and stays ahead of hitters consistently. Covering 19 starts at Triple AAA Charlotte over the past two years, Axelrod posted a 9-2 record with a 1.67 ERA with a BAA of just .226. Axelrod has paid his dues, he’s not going to get rattled, he’s been given a home in the White Sox rotation and he’s a much better option taking back a nice tag than Haren is spotting a big one. Overlay.
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