| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.36 |
| Last 30 Days | 17 | 17 | 0.00 | +4.52 |
| Season to Date | 17 | 17 | 0.00 | +4.52 |
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All plays are 2 units.
Tampa Bay +102 over BOSTON
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. The Red Sox were rolling along before Joel Hanrahan blew a save opportunity on Wednesday. Boston subsequently lost again yesterday and suddenly things aren’t so peachy anymore. Felix Doubront maintained impressive strikeout numbers and xERA growth for the entire season a year ago after stepping into the rotation following some Boston injuries. However, real control gains remained elusive and gopheritis has killed him for two straight seasons. Doubront’s abysmal .894 OPS with RISP and .815 OPS at Fenway (.732 on the road) says there's work to be done. Doubront is the second best starter in this matchup.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Alex Cobb went 11-9 with a 4.03 ERA in 136 IP for the Rays last season. The GBer acquitted himself well in extended trial with his 1H/2H splits being a little inconsistent due to shift in hit and strand percentages. However, skills were similar. Cobb had plenty of dominant starts mixed in with a few disasters but that’s not surprising for a young pitcher. Cobb has stepped up his game this year. He was completely dominant this past spring where he posted a 28/5 K/BB in 25 IP. Cobb followed that up with a gem in his season opener when he threw a seven-inning, four-hit, and no runs gem against the Indians. His elite groundball rate of 58% was second in the majors last season among qualified pitchers. Cobb has a better chance than Doubront of having the lead after five frames and that’s precisely the way we’ll play it.[/FONT]
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[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Houston +164 over L.A. ANGELS[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
1st 5 innings. The Astros have won two straight while scoring 24 runs over those two victories and it came at Seattle’s Safco Field. Overall, Houston has scored six more runs than the Angels while also allowing fewer runs than Anaheim and they come into this series in a much better frame of mind than the reeling Halos. The Angels have lost four straight and seven of their first nine games. At some point they figure to turn things around but until we see proof of that, they will remain high on our fade list at prices like this. Tommy Hanson’s partially torn rotator cuff last season led to a new delivery, which led to his worst MLB results. A high 2H hit rate adds to the concern and that cranky shoulder makes him a big health risk. Hanson has suffered back and rotator cuff injuries over the past two seasons and was barely breaking 90 mph when he was forced to shut it down for a couple of weeks last year in early August. In Hanson’s first start of the year in Texas, he put up some nice numbers but luck played a big role, as he only struck out four batters in six frames and had a GB%/FB% profile of 25%/60%. Hanson’s skills took a steep dive last year and it got progressively worse as the season wore on. His under the surface stats in his first game this year instills even more doubt and at prices like these, he’s a huge risk.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Bud Norris’s ERA rose nearly a full run from 2011 despite carbon-copy skills. His dip in strand % drove the ERA spike. Norris's third straight year of sub-4.00 xERA underscores the strength of his skill set. In fact, Norris was nearly unhittable in 2012 when he faced RH bats. Likewise, he was one of the NL's best SP when pitching at home. He was bad against LH bats and he was bad on the road but being bad on the road doesn’t make a lot of sense. It remains to be seen how his transition to the AL will go, but there's a mid-3.00s ERA lurking here with a little more consistency. Even in an unsupportive environment, the percentage play is to bet that those skills will win out, making the reward here certainly worth the risk.
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