| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +3.28 |
| Last 30 Days | 18 | 17 | 0.00 | +7.80 |
| Season to Date | 18 | 17 | 0.00 | +7.80 |
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N.Y. Mets -½ +110 over MINNESOTA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. The Mets bullpen can’t be trusted and Scott Diamond can’t be trusted, thus the five inning wager. Diamond went 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA in 173 innings for the Twins last year. This unremarkable journeyman turned improved control and a groundball spike into a serviceable season. A mind-boggling quality-start/disaster start split accompanied a weak strikeout rate. A reversal of strand percentage fortune caught up to Diamond in the second half but in reality, this is called wringing the most out of what you have. To say Scott Diamond's 2012 success was a surprise would be an understatement. Diamond lost 19 games between Triple-A and a brief stint in the majors in 2011, with a 6.28 ERA. Diamond's skill set lends itself to polarizing results. Either he maintains control and gets lucky again or a few more balls find holes (or the fences) and he's back in the minors by June. Diamond makes his first appearance of the year against a Mets’ team that went off for 16 runs yesterday at this park and that leads the NL in runs scored with 65. [/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Matt Harvey faces a team that has lost four straight and that’s never seen him before. Harvey went 3-5 with a 2.73 ERA in 59 frames for the Mets last year. He was touted as a high-ceiling prospect and looked the part in his first taste of big league ball by being dominant in 7 of 10 MLB starts. Harvey’s fastball sits at 92-95 MPH and up to 98 with good life. His best secondary now is his plus slider that shows good depth. To complement his fastball/slider combo, Harvey has a solid curve and changeup. Due to his inconsistent release point, Harvey has had issues commanding his pitches in the past but his progress to establish consistency has paved the way for him to shine this season. In two starts covering 14 innings, Harvey has walked four while striking out 19. His line-drive rate over those first two starts was a miniscule 8%, suggesting that even when batters make contact, they’re getting a fraction of the ball. Harvey has the goods to be a true ace while Diamond has the goods to be a true stiff. Enough said. Play: N.Y. Mets -½ +110 (Risking 2 units). [/FONT]
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OAKLAND +108 over Detroit
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Most of you are going to see Justin Verlander a cheap price against the A’s and be very tempted to pull the trigger. Verlander is simply one of the best in the business with a well-deserved reputation of being so. He doesn’t need any introductions here because everyone that is reading this knows exactly who Justin Verlander is, what he’s accomplished and what he’s capable of doing every time he takes the mound. That said, the oddsmakers know too and they don’t set bad lines in a game involving Verlander. The trap has been set, don’t spring it because there are plenty of reasons to like the A’s here.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
First, Oakland is red-hot. They fell behind 3-0 early last night against Detroit and didn’t allow another run in a 4-3 comeback win. It was the A’s ninth straight win. They lead the majors in just about every offensive category, including runs scored (70), total bases (199), HR’s (19) and walks drawn (42) to name a few. Enter Brett Anderson, a starter with 70 career starts that pitched just 35 innings last season and posted a 2.57 ERA. Don’t ignore that, as Anderson picked right up where he left off before 2011's Tommy John surgery with outstanding command and groundball rates. He looks even better this year with 16 K’s in 13 frames to go along with an eye-opening 71% groundball rate. Anderson does not need a high strikeout rate to be effective, especially given his pinpoint control and outstanding groundball bias profile. The scary thing is that his strikeout rate has risen too, making Anderson one of the best skill sets in the entire league. It’s conceivable that the A’s could have a 1-0 or 2-0 lead going into the late innings. It’s also conceivable that the game could be decided by the pens and in that regard, we give the Athletics a significant edge. At home with Anderson going and taking back a tag, even against Verlander, the A’s have way too much appeal to ignore. Play: Oakland +108 (Risking 2 units). [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Colorado -114 over SAN DIEGO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]There’s value in playing favorites when said favorite is underpriced and that’s precisely the case here. The Rockies are 6-4 but they’re 6-1 when playing anyone other than San Francisco. Colorado is also 4-0 this season against the Padres after sweeping them last weekend at Coors and taking the opener last night, 7-5. Overall, Colorado is hitting a combined .283 while the Padres are batting just .243. Colorado has scored 54 runs compared to the Padres 33 runs scored. Last weekend in Colorado, the Padres scored just six runs in the three games series while the Rocks scored 20. It’s an offensive mismatch in the Rockies favor and the pitching matchup isn’t far behind in the mismatch category.
[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Last year was another season of porous control by Edinson Volquez that left many bats on shoulders while trivializing Petco's spacious dimensions. Now the fences at Petco are shorter and have been moved in so he’s not going to reap the rewards of pitching there anymore. In two starts this season covering just nine frames, Volquez has walked four and struck out five. The red flags don’t stop there. Volquez’s groundball rate is down, his line-drive rate is up and his swinging strike rate is also down. Too many disaster starts over the past couple of years says he’s too volatile. If the promise of 2008 (his last season of acceptable control) seems like eons ago... well, it's because it is.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Jhoulys Chacin went 3-5 with a 4.43 ERA in 69 IP for Colorado last season. Chacin was terrible in those first five starts last April and that turned into a demotion, which turned into three months on the DL with shoulder inflammation. His ERA bounced back in 2H, but a strikeout rate plunge and xERA show that skills were still shaky. At age 25 and looking as healthy as he did in 2011, Chacin has all the skills we look for in a potential breakout campaign. Chacin is 1-0 in two starts with a 1.35 ERA and here are some observations about that pair of outings. Chacin's GB% was already very good entering 2013 and he's taken it up a notch through the first couple of games to an elite 54%. He's benefitted from a depressed hit % but his xERA (3.04) still confirms that skill, not luck, is behind his early success. Chacin is walking fewer hitters. He's done so by pitching to contact, which means fewer Ks, too. But his overall command is up a tick, so it's a tradeoff we'll take. Ask any batter what it is like to bat against Jhoulys Chacin and chances are you will hear the word "nasty." While blessed with a low-to-mid 90's fastball and a plus curve ball, it is Chacin's ability to mix speeds and competitive fire that allowed him to strikeout a batter an inning over his 137.3 rookie innings. Last season was a write off. This season, Chacin is back and he just might be the most undervalued pitcher in the majors. Take advantage now because it’s not going to last much longer. Play: Colorado -114 (Risking 2 units to win 1.75). [/FONT]
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