| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +1.95 |
| Last 30 Days | 20 | 18 | 0.00 | +9.75 |
| Season to Date | 20 | 18 | 0.00 | +9.75 |
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All plays are for 2 units.
N.Y. Mets +101 over MINNESOTA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. The Twins are 4-7 and have dropped five in a row while being outscored 33-12 over their five-game losing streak. After spending his career with three teams in the National League, Kevin Correia finds himself in the American League and he acquitted himself well in his first two starts, holding the Tigers and Royals to 15 hits and five earned runs for an ERA of 3.14. However, Correia’s xERA is 4.46 after striking out just three batters over those 14.1 frames. Unlike the Royals and Tigers, the Mets have seen him and current Mets have 30 hits against Correia in 80 career AB’s for a combined BA of .375. Then there’s the venue. Pitching in San Fran, San Diego and Pittsburgh, all pitcher friendly venues, aided Correia for 10 years. His ERA over the past two years pitching for the Pirates was 4.79 in 2011 and 4.21 in 2012. PNC Park suppresses RH HR by 31%, Target Field suppresses it by only 6% and Correia is likely to pay the price against a Mets’ club that is hitting .285 against righties and that has belted out 15 jacks in 11 games.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Mets are 7-4. Dillon Gee was lit up in his last start in Philadelphia to the tune of 10 hits and seven earned runs in three innings, thus his 7.71 ERA in two starts. However, Gee went 6.1 innings in his season debut against the Padres and allowed just three hits and one run and that’s the Dillon Gee you can expect to see more often. Gee had few bad starts last season. He has a two-year, strong groundball bias profile (45%) and a very good line-drive profile of 18% over that same span. Gee’s combination of solid command and GB% give us an xERA that's a run and a half below his actual ERA over the past two seasons, suggesting there should be better times ahead for this skilled 27-year old. The Twinkies are hitting a combined .219 and they’ve never seen Gee, another factor that works in our favor here. Use Gee's xERA as your guide, not his actual ERA. [/FONT]
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Texas -½ +110 over SEATTLE
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. Two rookies oppose one another here and while both of these starters have upside, the big difference is confidence and right now Brandon Maurer’s is shot. In his first start of the year, Maurer was fighting it the entire game versus the A’s in which he threw six innings of eight-hit ball while surrendering six runs and two bombs. In that outing he struck out one batter. Maurer was pulled after 2/3 IP against the Astros after giving up 6 earned runs in the 1st inning in his second major league start. That’s not the way one wants to begin their major league career. Chances are Maurer didn’t sleep too well last night with those two starts hanging over his head and knowing he’ll be facing the Rangers in his third start. Maurer has given up 15 hits and 12 runs in 6.2 frames (.469 BAA with a 2.40 WHIP) over his first two major league starts. It’s a small sample size but this isn’t some seasoned vet that can easily shake it off. This is a kid who is trying to stay in the rotation and these Rangers will have no sympathy.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Rangers starter Nick Tepesch allowed only one run in 7.1 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays in his major league debut this past Tuesday to become the first pitcher to give up four hits or less and a run or less in his major league debut in 7.1 innings on a date as early as April 9 since Wayne Simpson did so April 9, 1970. Tepesch earned the Rangers fifth rotation spot out of spring training as a non-roster invitee. Tepesch throws four pitches with excellent command: fastball, cutter, curve, and change-up. He creates a lot of ground balls by utilizing his height (6’4”) for good downward plane on his fastball that tops out at 94 mph. He utilizes both sides of the plate well and mixes his curveball and cutter very well into his pitch mix. Tepesch impressed observers with his poise, and more importantly recorded 16 outs on groundballs in his sparkling debut for a groundball rate of 80% on batted balls. His changeup is still a bit of a work in progress, as he has a tendency to slow his arm speed but there is a lot to like about his arsenal and composure on the mound. Perhaps most importantly, Tepesch’s solid debut bought him some extra rope and from a psychological standpoint, that’s big. Maurer’s rope is hanging by a thread. [/FONT]
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Baltimore +114 over N.Y. YANKEES
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Hiroki Kuroda continues to thumb his nose at the aging curve, flourishing despite his move to the AL. Kuroda’s skills even took a step up in a tough ballpark last year, especially in the second half. Thing is, Kuroda has averaged over 200 innings in each of the past three years and all the signs suggest he’s about to pay the price for taxing his arm. In two starts, Kuroda has walked five and struck out seven in 6.2 frames. He didn’t make it out of the second inning against the Red Sox and barely made it through 5.1 frames against the Tribe. More troubling is that Kuroda’s line-drive rate is up five percentage points and his groundball rate is down seven percentage points. Over the past three years Kuroda has had favorable strand percentages, which has allowed him to outpitch his xERA. Kuroda has been gamely fighting off the toll 600+ innings takes on a 38-year old arm but the percentage play is to heed this arm, as it could all go quickly for him this season.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Wei-Yin Chen is now 0-2 after two starts, losing on the road to both Tampa Bay and Boston. Last year, the success of the Orioles drove statheads crazy as it appeared that they were winning with smoke and mirrors but there was nothing fluky about Chen's performance in 2012. Chen demonstrated solid skills all season with his control, strikeout rate and command, all dramatically improving across the board in the second half. He was pitching very well in his last start at Fenway until the seventh inning when Daniel Nava hit a three-run homer over the Green Monster to break Chen's shutout. For the day, 70 of his 107 pitches were strikes and that’s right in line with his career command of the strike zone in both the majors and the Japan league. Chen has a career 1.17 WHIP in his 34 career starts at this level and has a very good chance of success here against a Yankees club that is batting just .200 against southpaws this season.
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