| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Last 30 Days | 21 | 19 | 0.00 | +9.95 |
| Season to Date | 21 | 19 | 0.00 | +9.95 |
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All plays are 2 units.
Chicago +120 over TORONTO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. The Blue Jays return home, where they opened the year with just two wins in their first six games. On the artificial turf in Toronto, the Jays defense was atrocious and that’s a huge liability with Mark Buehrle on the hill because when Buehrle pitches, the defense comes into play. Buehrle is so predictable that we were considering a blind copy & paste from the previous posts we’ve made about him (he does it, why can't we?). Buehrle gave up a few more HR’s last year, his ground ball rate is in slow fade and so is his usefulness on the mound. In two starts at the Rogers Center covering just 9.2 innings, Buehrle has been tagged for 14 hits (two of them bombs) and 11 earned runs. He has a BAA of .326 and these White Sox know his tendencies better than any club in the majors. At the age of 34 with twelve straight 200-IP seasons and with average skills at best, Buehrle is a prime fade candidate.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Gavin Floyd’s elbow woes began in second half last year. His July-Aug DL stints that followed were career firsts and were responsible for his 2H command woes. After two starts, Floyd has a 5.56 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Those numbers combined with his injuries from last season has Floyd grossly undervalued here. Floyd had a 23/4 K/BB in 21 IP this spring and his skills in his first two starts have continued to be really good. Floyd has 12 K’s with just four walks in 11 innings. He has also induced a 53% groundball rate and has an xERA of 3.22 over those first two starts. Floyd is on the verge of a gem. He's throwing harder than he was at this time in 2012 and is a great buy low target. Definite overlay here on the South Side.[/FONT]
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N.Y. Mets +114 over COLORADO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. We were on the Mets yesterday with Dillon Gee projected to start but that game in Minnesota was rained out and now Gee gets an extra days rest in another favorable pitching matchup. Dillon Gee was lit up in his last start in Philadelphia to the tune of 10 hits and seven earned runs in three innings, thus his 7.71 ERA in two starts. However, Gee went 6.1 innings in his season debut against the Padres and allowed just three hits and one run and that’s the Dillon Gee you can expect to see more often. Gee had few bad starts last season. He has a two-year, strong groundball bias profile (45%) and a very good line-drive profile of 18% over that same span. Gee’s combination of solid command and GB% give us an xERA that's a run and a half below his actual ERA over the past two seasons, suggesting there should be better times ahead for this skilled 27-year old. Current Rockies have just 21 career AB’s against Gee (just five hits) and that should also work in our favor.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
We’re playing this one in five frames because it’s unlikely that Juan Nicasio will last that long. Juan Nicasio has battled significant injuries (back, knee) the past two seasons. That shelf time has prevented him from making good use of his 94 mph fastball, a pitch that has given him a decent strikeout rate in his brief major league career. That said, there are warning signs in addition to his poor durability. His 7.3% swinging strike rate doesn't support a high strikeout rate and he's a two-pitch pitcher. Two-pitch pitchers usually don’t last long at this level unless they’re overpowering with great control but that’s certainly not the case with Nicasio. In 11 frames over his first two starts he’s walked seven batters while whiffing just four. Last season, Nicasio followed up a 4.40 ERA, 1.53 WHIP in April with an even worse 5.86 ERA, 1.63 WHIP in May. He’s spent 177 days on the DL over the past two years and he appears to be too rusty and too erratic to trust spotting a tag against a Mets’ squad that is hitting .286 on the road to go along with a .503 slugging % and a .838 OPS.
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