Tuesday: Angels Can Win in Wintertime YTD: 35-26, + 25.17 units

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Monday: Oakland game pending, but I like what I'm seeing.


LAA -1 (+104). One unit. Mike Pelfrey is coming off Tommy John surgery just one year ago. Being able to pitch in 40 degree weather is hard enough. Most pitchers off such a serious surgery need more time than one year. Pelfrey was a guy with the Mets who threw low to mid 90s, with nothing special in off speed pitches. Now his velocity is down a few ticks and without the off speed stuff, he is likely to get clobbered. In his last start he did, as he also got hit hard in the latter parts of spring training. Somehow he was able to luck his way through his opening start, but I think that was likely good fortune as to where the line drives were hit. Vargas is a lefty who can eat up innings, doesn't throw hard, but has a great change up and can command his pitches. Minnesota is only hitting .195 vs. LHP so far this year. Other than Mauer, no one is really producing the runs. Mauer and Morneau, both being lefties might not get to Vargas, and Willingham is 2-19 lifetime vs. him. The Angels hitters are starting to show some glimmer of their power and hitting prowess, and I think they'll do well vs. a fastball first pitcher.
 

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Baltimore ML (-119) One unit. What happens when you trade 2 of your starters to KC in the off-season? You end up with Roberto Hernandez(aka Fausto Carmona) starting every 5th day. He pitched so-so in the minors last year, got shelled in the majors in a short sting, had a poor spring overall, and now 2 rough starts in the season. Besides, Baltimore just saw him 11 days ago. Here in this forum I have been berating the Pirates for slack hitting, while overlooking just how badly Tampa is hitting. They are hitting .202 vs. RHP so far, with a large sample size, have 4 HRs in 252 ABS and the bottom of the order is a dead spot. Jake Arrieta is a RHP who's had his troubles, but had a strong spring, and is capable as a starter. I think he will try to solidify his starting spot right here against a team in a woeful slump. The Orioles have a good bullpen that can help finish.
 

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Toronto -1 (+107) One unit. Josh Johnson pitched very well in the spring and looked like the pitcher he was for the Marlins. Then he stinks up the joint vs. Detroit last start. Maybe it was the 35 degree temperature in Detroit, maybe the Tigers are just hitting well, but I think Johnson can pitch well in the much warmer dome in Toronto. He can limber up like he did in Florida. I know Toronto is a free swinging team that swings for the fences, but the White Sox are worse. This year they have 91 Ks to only 16 walks. And when you look up and down their lineup, there are a lot of whiffers- Adam Dunn being the worst. Now Axelrod is a guy with below average stuff who has to have great command to be effective. But he walks too many, and can give up the long ball. A perfect scenario for the home run hitting Jays. The Jays started out the season poorly, but have hung in there to get their record back to respectable. This homestand is a good one to re-energize the fans.
 

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good call on going against bedard!!!! i like balty and over. also yanks over . good luck. thanks for write-ups
 

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Oakland RL (+105) One unit. More of the same as tonight, except Houston won't have a couple of middle relievers available. Peacock has a very nice knuckle curve, but kind of a straight fastball, and only those 2 pitches. He is definitely a 5 inning pitcher so once again Houston's bullpen will come in to play. Peacock can also give up the long ball. Oakland has one of the best, Houston's one of the worst. I think this is an overlooked factor in capping games. The A's send out AJ Griffin, a guy like Milone, who knows how to pitch and use the park to his advantage. He doesn't blow anyone away but has 3 plus pitches and commands them well enough to throw them any time. The Astros, as I said in Monday's post, saw some lousy pitching from Seattle and LA, but Oakland's is way better. Houston's poor defense can also come into play. Remember also, the A's played the hottest hitting team in Detroit, with good pitching, and now face the Astros. A huge contrast in batters.

Oakland -1 (-145) One unit. More juice than I like to give up. Your choice to tail or not.
 

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STL Cards -1 (-113) One unit. A play against Sanchez, whom seems to lose his confidence and control as soon as he gets base runners or gives up a run or two. He hasn't had a good season in 3 years and everyone keeps trying to get 2010 back from him when he played for SF. St. Louis, a singles, double, running team is just the kind of club that can get him rattled. Sanchez of old is NOT coming back! He's a guy that might be one month away from being waived or sent to AAA. Jake Westbrook won't pitch another shutout, but his sinker is working, and when it is, he can give his team a series of quality starts in a row. When it's not working, call for the pen. Right now I think he can stymie the Pirates, who I still think have a terrible 5-9 lineup. St. Louis also can play very well on the road, and at times can't hit at home. They have a very good 1-8 lineup.
 

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Sorry, but I don't have the time. Updated Record: 37-26, + 27.37 units
 

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Good stuff
GL Fred On Balt, Oak and Tor myself. :toast:
 

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Sorry about late post. One unit each

STL -1/2 first 5 IPs (-110)

LAA -1/2 1st 5 IP (+110)
 

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I should have laid off too. Even against very bad Twin pitching they can't hit. Maybe they can't play in cold weather.
 

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