| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.04 |
| Last 30 Days | 22 | 21 | 0.00 | +7.99 |
| Season to Date | 22 | 21 | 0.00 | +7.99 |
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Houston +151 over OAKLAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. Frankly, this line is ridiculous. Bartolo Colon is 40 years old. With few walks and strikeouts, Colon relies on his defense. Any negative deviations to hit % or strand % will affect his bottom line. Colon has an ERA of 4.15 and a BAA of .302. Colon is an innings eater that will likely maintain those numbers until another injury land him on the DL. He’s serviceable but he’s not worth the price put on him here.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
With all the upheaval in Houston, it's easy to forget there are some keeper-level players on the team and Bud Norris is one of them. Through three starts this season, Norris is 2-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 14/6 K/BB ratio. Is this moderate hot streak a sign of an even bigger step forward for Norris? Notable during this time has been a sudden stop to the gopheritis that has been keeping his ERA from dropping to elite levels. There has not been any meaningful change in his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball splits so everything points to Norris finally putting it all together. Norris has been absolutely dominant against RH batters this season with a BAA of .143 and that’s not an aberration because he’s always been dominating against righties. That’s really the key here. Oakland is 4-0 against lefties this year but they are just 2-4 against right-handers at home and will send a heavy right-handed lineup to face Norris. With Norris dominating right-handers, this ticket has a great chance of cashing after five frames.[/FONT]
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San Francisco +110 over MILWAUKEE
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]San Francisco +110 over MILWAUKEE[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
Anytime we can get the Giants at a price against the Brewers it’s worth a close look because in terms of talent and bullpen, this one is a mismatch in the Giants favor. Milwaukee went off for eight runs in the third inning off Barry Zito last night but subsequently scored just one more the rest of the way and had to hang on for a 10-8 victory. It was Milwaukee’s fourth win in 12 games and at least two of those wins were of the fortunate variety. The Brewers are full of holes, they strike out too often and that bullpen might just be the league’s worst. Kyle Lohse significantly outperformed his xERA again last season. Lohse’s control is legit but his history says not to trust is strikeout rate spike in the second half last year. Lohse’s sterling W-L record will not repeat and neither will his strand lucky 80% strand percentage. Sure, he's been an effective starter but all the signs say it’s been a lot of luck. In 13 innings this year, Lohse has a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split 0f 36%/31%/33% and that’s a disturbing profile that isn’t far off from his career splits. Kyle Lohse has been living a charmed life with unsustainable results.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Giants are probably the least flawed team in baseball. They are in the top five in the majors in just about every key category that includes team batting average, runs scored and on base percentage among others. The Giants also don’t strike out much, as their 87 K’s are the second fewest in the NL. Ryan Vogelsong has a horrible 7.15 ERA and 1.76 WHIP, but the prudent move is not to jump ship just yet. Vogelsong’s base skills have been very good, which includes 11 K’s in 11 innings. A 43% hit rate and 58% strand rate have teamed to torpedo his surface stats. What we have here is a buy low (on Vogelsong) and sell high (on Lohse) opportunity and one we are not going to miss because the Giants chances of winning are greater than Milwaukee’s chances. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Boston +130 over CLEVELAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Indians have scored two runs or fewer in four of their past five games and that alone makes them too big a risk spotting a tag against the inspired Red Sox, who feel they are representing a nation right now. Cleveland’s troubles go deep. The Indians have run into some early season injury issues resulting in some lineup and roster adjustments. Reports now say Michael Bourn will head to the DL later this week due to stitches in his right hand after a head-first slide into first base on Sunday. While he's out the Indians could move Drew Stubbs to center and Nick Swisher or Ryan Raburn to right. If Swisher moves to right, then Mark Reynolds could play 1B while Jason Giambi would DH. Backup catcher Lou Marson was placed on the DL and Carlos Santana has been slowed by a bruised left hand. The Indians called up two catchers from Triple-A: Omir Santos and Yan Gomes. With an awful pen and a depleted lineup, the Indians offer up no appeal as the chalk. Justin Masterson has gained 2.1 mph on his fastball from April 2012 to so far in April 2013, the biggest jump of any SP. His base skills over his first few starts are near-elite. As has been the norm with Masterson, he is dominating RH bats but isn't nearly as good against LH bats (the Red Sox can load up with left-handed bats) meaning his long-term outlook remains hazy. Masterson has faced three light-hitting teams so far in the White Sox, Rays and Jays and this is without question his toughest test to date.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Alfredo Aceves is a wild card. Despite a shaky start, Aceves has displayed skills well-suited to stick in the rotation for the time being. Aceves has appeared in three games this season but started just one. He looked most comfortable in the starting role his last time out (his first start since June of 2011) against the Orioles in which he left after the fifth inning with the game tied 2-2. He’s missing more bats this year (9 k’s in 9.1 innings) so retaining the uptick in his strikeouts will be critical to Aceves' success. He's always been conditioned to longer outings so this role is something he has aspired to. His surface numbers remain less than shiny, which means we get him at a discount. Against the troubled Indians, that works for us. [/FONT][/FONT]
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