Thursday: 2-1, + 3.35 units. Wrong about the Gallardo. He's a damn good pitcher when sobered up. As for the Reds….
Reds RL (-105). 4 units. Don't like a lot of run line bets, but this one is too juicy to pass up. The Reds are at home and have every advantage in this game, except maybe complacency. The Reds, though, are not that type of team. Maybe the Angels or Dodgers or Rangers, but the Reds play hard even against the cream puffs. Miami pitcher Slowey seemingly has pitched well this year, but he has been VERY lucky. He has a 94% strand rate, which means he is giving up lots of base runners that haven't scored. He is overdue for a game where he has very few stranded runners which will get this % closer to the average. Slowey had a miserable year at AAA and is really the same pitcher. The Reds beat up on Fernandez, and his stuff is far better. Latos has an amazing BB:K ratio this year as he usually does. He is an excellent 6 inning pitcher, and is backed by a strong bullpen. He even hits a bit. The Reds also look like they are beginning to stroke the ball, and have always hit in the clutch. Miami's bullpen will be needed by the 6th if not earlier, and that is another problem for sleazeball Loria's club- the bullpen is awful. Finally, the Marlins have many young hitters, and when young hitters slump, it erodes their confidence and these slumps can last awhile.
Reds RL (-105). 4 units. Don't like a lot of run line bets, but this one is too juicy to pass up. The Reds are at home and have every advantage in this game, except maybe complacency. The Reds, though, are not that type of team. Maybe the Angels or Dodgers or Rangers, but the Reds play hard even against the cream puffs. Miami pitcher Slowey seemingly has pitched well this year, but he has been VERY lucky. He has a 94% strand rate, which means he is giving up lots of base runners that haven't scored. He is overdue for a game where he has very few stranded runners which will get this % closer to the average. Slowey had a miserable year at AAA and is really the same pitcher. The Reds beat up on Fernandez, and his stuff is far better. Latos has an amazing BB:K ratio this year as he usually does. He is an excellent 6 inning pitcher, and is backed by a strong bullpen. He even hits a bit. The Reds also look like they are beginning to stroke the ball, and have always hit in the clutch. Miami's bullpen will be needed by the 6th if not earlier, and that is another problem for sleazeball Loria's club- the bullpen is awful. Finally, the Marlins have many young hitters, and when young hitters slump, it erodes their confidence and these slumps can last awhile.
