| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | -4.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 23 | 25 | 0.00 | +2.59 |
| Season to Date | 23 | 25 | 0.00 | +2.59 |
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All games are for 2 units.
St. Louis -1 +107 over PHILADELPHIA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Roy Halladay wanted that 200th career win badly and he got it against Miami in his last start when he threw eight innings of one-run ball. “Doc” struck out two Marlins in those eight frames. In his first two starts of the year prior to that, Halladay was rocked by both the Mets and Braves, surrendering 12 hits and 12 runs in a combined 7.1 innings. A shoulder strain nagged Halladay him most of last season, resulting in his first sub-200 IP year since '05. That shoulder carried an average of 240 IP per season from '08-'11, so we can't assume a return to good health and a skills decline in his groundball rate, hr/9, and line-drive rate doesn’t exactly instill confidence either. Citizens Bank Park is an unforgiving venue on aging pitchers with health issues and after picking up that illusive 200th win, Halladay could be on a mental low.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Phillies are batting a MLB low .131 against southpaws this season and will face a good one here in Jamie Garcia. Garcia is 34-23 with a 3.43 ERA in his first four major league seasons and that includes a difficult 2012 that saw Garcia miss two months with a shoulder impingement. He then lasted just two innings in Game 2 of the NL Division Series against Washington and was taken off the roster because of a strained rotator cuff. Better off-season conditioning followed by a strong spring has Garcia feeling great and looking even better on the mound. Through three starts covering 19 frames, Garcia has struck 19 batters to go along with an elite 64% groundball rate and 13% line-drive rate. Said Adam Wainwright,” "He looks great -- sinking it, cutting it, curving it, changing it, just like he always does. "What he brings is very valuable. He has nasty stuff." Two of Garcia’s three starts this season were at home against Milwaukee and Cincinnati. His lone road start came at Arizona in which he completely dominated the Snakes at hitter friendly Chase Field. Those are three very decent hitting teams that Garcia shut down. His numbers after three starts are 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA and .208 BAA. Now he’ll face a Phillies club hitting .131 against lefties. Do the math. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]N.Y. Yankees +102 over TORONTO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Blue Jays managed to salvage a series split with the South Side by winning the finale 3-1 last night. Impressive performance by R.A. Dickey was the difference but the Jays offense only mustered four hits the entire evening to lower their team batting average to .229 on the year. Against lefties, that figure drops to .214 and the Jays will face a crafty one here in Andy Pettitte. Age is nothing but a number to Pettitte. He returned from a year away from the game to post strong skills in a season cut short by a freak leg injury. Bettors will no doubt be wary of his age and health concerns but the numbers speak for themselves. Pettitte is 2-0 with a 1.21 ERA after facing the Red Sox and Indians. More impressive is a 57% groundball rate, a 9% line-drive rate, a .241 BAA and a very impressive 1.13 WHIP. Overall the Yankees are hitting .267 but against righties they are batting a combined MLB high of .302 and will face right-hander Brandon Morrow here. New York has also won six of its past seven games. [/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Morrow’s swinging strike rate dipped from an elite level in 2011 to a good level in 2012. That decline has continued into this season. Against Morrow this season, batters are making contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown outside the strike zone at a clip of 87%. Prior to this season, Morrow had always been under 61% in that department. In other words, he’s not fooling many. Morrow was also helped by a fortunate 26% hit rate in 2012 but this year that has normalized to 30%. There are more red flags in Morrow’s profile. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates are an ugly 35%/25%/40%. Morrow’s xERA is 4.82 after three starts. Brandon Morrow is a beatable pitcher with a two-year skills decline. He has shown nothing in his skills this season that support a low ERA over time. His reputation of a pitcher on the verge of stardom is becoming redundant already. Morrow isn’t on the verge of anything but a disappointing season because the under the hood and surface stats say so.[/FONT]
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HOUSTON +109 over Cleveland
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Indians have dropped four in a row. They come in here with a depleted lineup and a team batting average of just .211 over their past five games. Brett Myers not only has called many cities home over the past few years, he’s also moved between the bullpen and the rotation constantly. Gopheritis is a term used to describe a pitcher that can’t keep the ball in the yard and that has been Myers’ nemesis for years. Myers has been tagged for eight jacks already this year in three starts. He has a BAA of .333, a WHIP of 1.65 and an ERA of 8.82. Myers is 32 with a sharp decline in everything he offers. He can’t even add "durability" to his résumé and remains a volatile investment because of the damage that HRs do and the poor skills he has displayed.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]The Astros have shown some power. Their 15 bombs rank them 15th out of 30 teams but more than that, they play with a contagious enthusiasm that allows them to compete while the Indians looked like a beaten down team after last night’s loss to the Red Sox. At the conclusion of that Cleveland/Boston series last night, the cameras showed several Indian players sitting on the bench (instead of heading into the dugout) with a lost look on their faces, staring onto the field in much the same way a team does after a playoff series loss. The Indians body language says to stay away from them right now.
Lucas Harrell now gets his shot at the Tribe. Harrell won't get much attention because of a 5.63 ERA that has resulted in a 0-2 record. Harrell is also 28 and his numbers with Houston in 2012 were far from attractive. That said, Harrell owns elite skills with the bases empty that include a high strikeout rate and a 59% groundball profile. In two of his three starts this year, Harrell shut down both the Angels and Rangers in which he went a combined 11.1 innings against that pair and allowed two just two runs. His inflated ERA is due to one bad start in Oakland but lay attention more attention to those other two pure quality starts. There's some profit potential here if Harrell has figured some things out and all indications are that he has. Against the light-hitting Indians that are in a poor state of mind and funk Harrell and the Astros are a much better choice as a pooch than the Indians are as the favorite.[/FONT][/FONT]
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