Saturday: No Line on White Sox? YTD: 46-34, +30.01 units

ofred · Apr 20, 2013

Friday: 4-1, + 2.19 units. This was a satisfying day in that the only thing I messed up was how well Kevin Slowey pitched. I still think he'll regress to his mean eventually and I'll be there to profit from it. Latos pitched his game, but Slowey really did get hitters to hit the ball poorly, and left runners stranded. His strand rate now must be 95%! I also failed to capitalize on the Texas game. Darvish has had problems from day one with Seattle, but you could see he is pitching great now, and Seattle has many slumping players. Also, Saunders is a Safeco pitcher, but can't pitch well on the road.

Saturday: Why no Chicago line? Snow, rain, probably the ppd. made it somewhat questionable who the starters will be.

ofred · Apr 20, 2013

Phillies -1 (+104) 3 units. Lance Lynn has had a velocity drop so far again, like last season in the 2nd half. His effectiveness noticeably drops when this happens. The Phillies have showed some life on and off since their 2-5 start. The loss of a sweep to the Reds really hurt, but this veteran club came back and blew out St. Louis Friday behind the aging Roy Halladay. The Phils have some solid and hot hitters going now, and if Howard can go Saturday, even better. St. Louis has been in a mini-slump this week, and are only .211 vs. LHP this year. The Cards are also a team that wins big later in the season when it counts but lacks power at times early in the season. I also have to confess I am a big Cliff Lee fan. Watched him pitch in Seattle 3 times live and always was in awe at his incredible command of a low 90s fastball. He rarely makes a mistake, and to me, is one of those pitchers that for years has been competitive despite the big salary and his lack of overpowering stuff. Many think the Phillies are a bottom division club, but I think they still have a window of opportunity to compete, if their bullpen comes around. Also, Mayberry might finally blossom.

JustinCruise · Apr 20, 2013

nice job today.

gl with your plays saturday

ofred · Apr 20, 2013

Milwaukee ML (-114) 2 units. I like this situation. Young Hiram Burgos makes his mlb debut vs. Cubs at home. Burgos doesn't throw that hard, but has excellent command on his off speed pitches, and has already excelled on the big stage. He pitched very well(almost dominated) in the WBC for Puerto Rico. Now he faces the fastball-loving, somewhat undisciplined Cubs. As I have posted before, I have seen young pitchers have great debuts even when their stuff is average. Burgos might have first inning excitement jitters, but I see him settling down and pitching well after that. The Brewers have seen Edwin Jackson enough to know what to expect. The man who has been traded so much he probably has to check his uniform to see where he is now. Jackson has always had the good mid 90s fastball was but nothing special to make teams want to sign him, has now dropped to a low 90s fastball. This season has been so-so and I expect that Jackson + the Cubs bullpen will lead to about an 8-15 record. The Brewers are a home hitting club that can beat inferior clubs like the Cubs.

ofred · Apr 20, 2013

JustinCruise said:
nice job today.

gl with your plays saturday

Thanks justin. I see you're having a good year too.

FairWarning · Apr 20, 2013

O Fred - I'm sure the game is OTB in Chicago because of the starters. I know the White Sox backed up their rotation a day, Peavy is going Saturday. haven't heard who the Twins are starting.

ofred · Apr 20, 2013

I hope it's Worley.

ofred · Apr 20, 2013

Baltimore ML (-120) One unit. I know Josh Beckett had a great start last time out, but I don't expect a repeat. The Baltimore hitters have seen him and his lesser repertoire a lot in the past 2-3 years. And Beckett struggled quite a bit vs. Baltimore in last 5-6 starts over that time. That's why, I think, this line is -120, and not closer to even. Beckett is no where near the pitcher he used to be and his last game was Beckett hitting his spots perfectly. Welcome back to the AL East. Chen looks about the same as last year, but hitters are making a weaker contact rate this year, and he will keep his team in the game as he did almost every start last year. The Dodgers have hit lefties pretty good this year, but the lefties they've faced have been sub-par. The Orioles are led by what I consider one of the best managers in the game, Buck Showalter. He is a good blend of motivator and strategist, and I always lean a little to Baltimore at home. Both bullpens are decent.

ofred · Apr 20, 2013

San Diego Ml (+162) One unit. There must be some handicapper's law that you should always take a number larger than +150 when facing a pitcher who has been consistently poor. That fits SD vs. Lincecum. Lincecum has also pitched poorly vs. SD in his last 3 starts. He has not impressed this year with his poor command and meatballs left up in the zone. Lincecum is a disaster with men on base. He seems to get rattled and can't keep them from stealing. Clayton Richard has steadily improved each start and is supported by a very good bullpen. He might give up a few runs but the SD bullpen might shut down SF after that. The Padres have also shown a better hitting attack in these West Coast games in the past week or so. After facing the very tough Bumgarner, they might feast on Lincecum and the somewhat weaker Giants bullpen.

ofred · Apr 20, 2013

Tampa ML (-122) One unit. I love Oakland's pitching, but Jarrod Parker is an exception. His mechanics are a mess, he has lost command, and is one bad outing from being replaced in the rotation. The A's have prospect Straily waiting in the minors. Also, the A's are usually a slow starting team, an it's possible will see that they'll regress a bit on this road trip. Tampa is finally getting going with the bats and can match Oakland's quality bullpen. The Rays are at least hitting for some power if not for average. This might be 2 units except Tampa has problems hitting at home. Hellickson stifled Boston last outing and this is probably one of the the best starts this year vs. a red hot Red Sox team- and in Fenway.

RojoHawk7 · Apr 20, 2013

I think Hammel is pitching for the birds tomorrow ...

danny60606 · Apr 20, 2013

Fred Good Luck today and agree 110% on this Kid Hiram Burgos from the Brewers...
Watched him pitch for Puerto Rico in the WBC...Really like his control of his off-speed stuff.
I'm with ya here...
Again Good Luck today
Also waiting to see pitching match-ups on the Dodgers/Orioles...

brewerfan003 · Apr 20, 2013

o fred said:
Milwaukee ML (-114) 2 units. I like this situation. Young Hiram Burgos makes his mlb debut vs. Cubs at home. Burgos doesn't throw that hard, but has excellent command on his off speed pitches, and has already excelled on the big stage. He pitched very well(almost dominated) in the WBC for Puerto Rico. Now he faces the fastball-loving, somewhat undisciplined Cubs. As I have posted before, I have seen young pitchers have great debuts even when their stuff is average. Burgos might have first inning excitement jitters, but I see him settling down and pitching well after that. The Brewers have seen Edwin Jackson enough to know what to expect. The man who has been traded so much he probably has to check his uniform to see where he is now. Jackson has always had the good mid 90s fastball was but nothing special to make teams want to sign him, has now dropped to a low 90s fastball. This season has been so-so and I expect that Jackson + the Cubs bullpen will lead to about an 8-15 record. The Brewers are a home hitting club that can beat inferior clubs like the Cubs.

I really like your brewers play as well...think you are very right and I'll be on that as well

Hamilbet · Apr 20, 2013

RojoHawk7 said:
I think Hammel is pitching for the birds tomorrow ...

Nope. It's Cliff.

thechemist82 · Apr 20, 2013

RojoHawk7 said:
I think Hammel is pitching for the birds tomorrow ...

Depends on which game we're talking here.

ofred · Apr 20, 2013

Chicago White Sox -1 (-120). Lost my -114 to the weather, but I'll take it at this. 4 units (See my write-up friday, if interested)

Vituperate · Apr 20, 2013

o fred said:
San Diego Ml (+162) One unit. There must be some handicapper's law that you should always take a number larger than +150 when facing a pitcher who has been consistently poor. That fits SD vs. Lincecum. Lincecum has also pitched poorly vs. SD in his last 3 starts. He has not impressed this year with his poor command and meatballs left up in the zone. Lincecum is a disaster with men on base. He seems to get rattled and can't keep them from stealing. Clayton Richard has steadily improved each start and is supported by a very good bullpen. He might give up a few runs but the SD bullpen might shut down SF after that. The Padres have also shown a better hitting attack in these West Coast games in the past week or so. After facing the very tough Bumgarner, they might feast on Lincecum and the somewhat weaker Giants bullpen.

This may sound like a joke but Lincecum was never the same after his pot bust. And I don't mean he need to smoke more. Just that he went from totally dominating to last year and now a worse than average pitcher with no solution in sight....:think2:

thank fred gl all

powerz · Apr 20, 2013

Here is the Friday write up on the SOX

Chicago White Sox-1 (-114). 4 units. There has to be some bone chips still floating around in Vance Worley's elbow. His velocity is down from last year while he delayed the surgery, and he is pitching worse. In 34 innings this year(spring and regular season), he has given up 59 hits. I can't think of any pitcher in the mlb, with more than 30 IPs, who have that kind of IPs:Hit ratio. Worley started the year with an okay game vs. Detroit, pitched a little worse in his second start and then gave up 9 runs to the Mets in the first 2 innings. Peavy pitched 32 IPs vs. the Twins last year and had a 2.25 ERA. Furthermore this year, he one walk and 24 strikeouts in 18 IPs. The Twins have benefitted from some awful Angel pitching… Blanton, Vargas, a crappy bullpen, but against solid pitchers like Peavy haven't hit well at all. Like day and night. Sox also have the bullpen to finish. The Twins miss Ben Revere, his speed and personality, and Span too. Their new CF Hicks is hitting .044, and the leadoff Dozier is not getting on base like Span or Revere could. White Sox glad to be home, finally get to see a hittable starter.

Thanks Fred

I like the over night ML move on MILK - TBAY, going to tail

here's to another winning day! Cheers

GL powerz

TyBounce · Apr 20, 2013

RojoHawk7 said:
I think Hammel is pitching for the birds tomorrow ...

Yes Hammel is pitching game#1 against Ryu , then Chen game 2 against Beckett , so his bet is for game2.

TyBounce · Apr 20, 2013

Hamilbet said:
Nope. It's Cliff.

??? huh ?

Saturday: No Line on White Sox? YTD: 46-34, +30.01 units

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