| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4.22 |
| Last 30 Days | 25 | 25 | 3 | +6.81 |
| Season to Date | 25 | 25 | 3 | +6.81 |
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L.A. ANGELS -109 over Detroit
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]With just five wins in their first 15 games, the Angels stock is probably the lowest it’s going to be the rest of the way. That allows us to step in and buy low here. The Angels are too loaded to be losing at this clip and last night’s 8-1 win in the opener of this series could certainly springboard them. With so few Ks and BBs, Rick Porcello is at the mercy of the Detroit defense, which isn’t likely to garner much Gold Glove discussion. As a result, it’s not too surprising that Porcello’s hit % is high, adversely affecting his ERA. Last season, lefties battered him to the tune of .325/.381/.503. In two starts and one relief appearance against the A’s in which Porcello entered with a 9-1 lead, Porcello has struck out three batters in 12.1 innings. In Porcello’s two starts against the Blue Jays and Twins, he surrendered 14 hits and seven earned runs and barely made it into the fifth inning in both games. Porcello is a pitcher that puts the ball in play. He has a good groundball profile (51%) and normally GBs would be a decent proxy for Ks but he had Detroit’s horrible defensive infield behind him. They caused Porcello’s hit % punishment and without personnel changes we can't count on regression. Porcello’s strikeout rate has dipped, he was skipped in his last scheduled start and he could be a pitcher in trouble.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Garrett Richards’ command can be inconsistent but he has mid-90s, GB-generating stuff, which makes him worth keeping an eye on. He was solid in spring training and out of the pen early, so a breakthrough wouldn't surprise. There is little question that Richards has the pure stuff to pitch effectively in the big leagues. Against the Tigers last year he had his best major-league start of 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 K’s. In 11 innings this year that includes one start, Richards has an elite groundball rate of 55% and a WHIP of 0.94. It’s a small sample size but it could continue because his strong profile says so. The Angels erupted for eight runs last night, which matched their highest output of the season so far. They’ve now scored 14 runs in their past two games. The Angels bats are heating up and now we get them at a cheap price at home with a favorable pitching matchup. That works. Play: L.A. Angels (Risking 2.18 units to win 2). [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]N.Y. Yankees -107 over TORONTO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Yankees have won eight of their past 10 games with a series sweep over Cleveland and series wins over both Baltimore and Arizona. The Blue Jays have one series win in five so far. Over their last 10 games, the Yanks are hitting .294 and have scored 62 runs while the Blue Jays are batting .227 and have scored 36 runs over that same span. The Bronx Bombers lead the majors with 19 jacks. The Blue Jays have gone yard eight times. Last night, New York belted out 13 hits and nine runs while the Blue Jays had five hits going to the bottom of the ninth and had two meaningless hits in that final half frame. The Yankees have something to prove and they’re doing so by playing aggressive baseball and playing with a chip on their shoulder. The Blue Jays are playing passive, they have an idiot manager who is completely clueless in his decisions, they seldom hit with men on base and they are without question the most overvalued team in the big leagues.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Now we get the Yanks, spotting less than a dime, with the ever reliable Huroki Kuroda going with his 2.87 ERA and 61% groundball rate against Mark Buehrle’s 7.31 ERA, 40% groundball rate and 1.75 WHIP. Are you kidding? Yanks should be -150 here, not -107. Play: N.Y. Yankees (Risking 2.14 units to win 2). [/FONT]
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Cleveland +102 over HOUSTON
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. The Indians have dropped five straight and Scott Kazmir gets his first start of the year and his first start since 2011. That combination has set up this huge underlay on the Tribe. This past spring, Kazmir was outstanding before an abdominal strain landed him on the DL before the season started. At one point in the spring, Kazmir threw 11 scoreless innings in succession and led the staff with 13 K’s in those 11 frames. “I had time to take a step back and go back to the drawing board and kind of figure out what came naturally to me,” said Kazmir. “With time off, it really helped me out. I was able to correct myself.” Kazmir made undisclosed mechanical adjustments and has gained 10 mph on his fastball. Manager Terry Francona, who has seen his fair share of dominating pitchers, had this to say about Kazmir, “The way he's throwing scares me. I wish we could bottle it and start the season already”. The Indians will come into this game a little extra jacked up in support of Kazmir because every player is rooting for him to succeed. This is the perfect opponent for Kazmir to get started against. The reports are that he feels great. Chances are that Kazmir won’t go much past five innings so that’s the way we’ll play it.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Philip Humber has a 2.89 ERA after three starts and 18.1 innings. He deserves better than a 0-3 record but if he can’t win games with that ERA, how is he going to win when his ERA skyrockets to match his skills? At the age of 30, Humber has one good year to his credit. He has a career ERA of 4.76 in 355 career innings, covering six seasons. In seven career starts against the Indians, Humber has an 8.74 ERA and current Indians are hitting .302 against him. Humber has a low strikeout rate, his control is on a three-year decline and he barely made the Astros roster as the fifth starter. Being Houston’s fifth starter is as close to being a minor-league pitcher as it gets. Philip Humber is fill-in fodder right now and we get to take advantage of a bad line because not many people know just how good Scott Kazmir might be this season. Play: Cleveland +102 (Risking 2 units). [/FONT][/FONT]
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