Sunday: Going Down(or up) With the Ship YTD: 49-40, +22.05 units

Saturday: 3-6, - 8.20 units. Ouch. After 3 weeks, I knew this day would come. It's a good reason to stick to tight money management and build up the account beforehand. It can absorb days like yesterday. I totally missed on the Phillies game, but after looking at the line movement, I guess the sharps hit it big. I might also just totally quit on totals since I'm probably like 1-8 on them. As for Adam Dunn, I agree with posters yesterday- he should be batting way down the order, and getting more days off. Rally killer.


Reds RL (-110) 4 units. Have won one big and lost one big and one small on the Reds. I really thought this series was such a mismatch that the Reds would sweep easily with large margins. That only happened in game one. In the other 2 games the Marlins always seemed to capitalize on a baserunner in scoring position, or hit a clutch homer, while the Reds whiffed and looked like schoolgirls with men on base. Sunday will be different. Homer Bailey ended last year with 20 almost perfect innings and in fact September was a month in which he might have learned to finally pitch with his great stuff. We saw that also on his last outing this year. Other than that bad outing at St. Louis, he's been near perfect his last 6 starts. Alex Sanabia has a 4.24 ERA but has been somewhat lucky with a high strand rate, and a 9:8 walk to K ratio. Hitters are hitting .299 off of him, laying off his good pitches to either walk or hit his mistakes. He also struggled in AAA last year. Sanabia doesn't throw that hard, and has to be near perfect with command. Reds still have a huge bullpen edge(although you wouldn't know it Saturday), at home, defensively, etc. Marlins are hitting .196 vs. RHP, with an ugly .246 OBP.

I'm not fucking with the White Sox anymore.

Worley looked like Cy Young vs them. Offense stinks.

Unders or nothing with them.. Wasted a gem from Peavy.

Colorado -1 (+103). 2 units. Brandon McCarthy's line drive pct. is not good (for him), but good for the Rockies. They have not really battered, though have defeated, the D-Backs RHP so far. McCarthy has another problem too. He makes too many mistake pitches, and seems to have a loss of confidence in his command. McCarthy has always had injury issues, but this time it's all in his head- although his velocity is down too. Nicasio, on the other hand, benefits from less velocity. His mid-90s fastball is a little too straight and seems to get more movement from a low 90s fastball. Colorado still has remarkable stats vs. RHP (47 extra base hits in just 16 games, and a very good BB:K ratio) and this matchup with McCarthy at Coors seems just right.

N Y Mets. ML (+138) 2 units. This line is strictly based on Gee's 2013 performance, and Zimmerman. Zimmerman deserves the kudos, but Gee is not nearly as bad as he's pitched. Last year, he had about 70% quality starts, and has the stuff to get whiffs. He has been an excellent day time pitcher, the Nats are still not hitting at their potential, and the Mets beat Strasburg Friday, and knocked around Gio on Saturday. Wright, Murphy and Tejada also have hit well vs. Zimmerman. Ryan Zimmerman, their 3B just went on the DL today, and the Nats' bullpen is about average these days, but better than the Mets'. Mets at home; can they beat Strasburg, almost beat Gio and beat Zimmerman all in the same weekend? I got 2 units that says they can.

NYY. ML (+135) Josh Johnson is a righty and that means Travis Hafner in the lineup. Hafner has led the charge for the Yankees to make mincemeat so far of RHP they've faced. Johnson had a good outing last time, but is definitely not the same pitcher he was for Miami. Toronto has also proven to be a strikeout team that swings for the fences, but doesn't win games. They have many slumbers in their lineup while the Yankees has beens are doing a pretty good job, with Cano, Gardner, et al. Yank bullpen can hold the lead if Ivan Nova can pitch just a little better. Nova does pitch better away from Yankee Stadium.

Oakland ML (-102) One unit. Neither team is hitting right now, but I just think Millone is progressing to being a better and better pitcher as time goes by. Great mix of pitches and speeds, and finally able to command it. The A's should be able to get some runs off of Hernandez, who seems to fade in the middle innings- giving 15 runs in 18.2 IPs this year. The Tampa bullpen has also faltered this year, while the A's remains one of the best. As I have posted in earlier threads, Tampa seems to play as well on the road as they do at home. (Lack of fans?)

I learned the hard way about MM and still go off the reservation every now and then. We can't win all the time but I feel good about the A's n Rocks today Reds are my kryptonite,I just need to stay far away from them. They will probably score dbl digits now @)

GL Fred

Atlanta-1/2 First 5(-115). One unit. This just seems obvious. Medlen vs. Sanchez. Medlen has been light s out first 5 while Sanchez rarely makes it to the 5th. My only concern is that the Pirates are finally hitting, while the Braves have cooled off. But using the old adage that good pitching beats good hitting, I'll risk a unit here. Sanchez, Pirate Brass, fans, etc. are still hanging on his 2010 season for redemption. He's a mess- can't pitch with men on base, mistake pitches too often in the middle of the plate, and control issues.

Boston-1 (+104) Game 2. 3 units. Have been researching this game and that's why it's late. Allen Webster goes tonight against the Royals in his major league debut. He throws a 95-98 mph fastball with good sink. His change-up is thrown from the same delivery, and also sinks a ton. His fastball has plenty of movement and allows him to occasionally make a mistake with placement. He also has a decent slider. The kid is athletic, fluid and poised. The one worry before this year was how he would have one inning where he would lose control and begin to walk batters. This year, in spring, he only walked on batter in 11 innings, and 0 batters in his last outing in AAA. Usually, the veterans of a club seem to play "up" when a young guy is debuting. In earlier threads it seems that new pitchers have at least 1 or 2 good outings before they regress a little. Webster doesn't have to worry about pitching his way to stay on the club. He is already going back to AAA after this due to some doubleheader exception that doesn't count as an option. The Royals had a great spring, but week by week are hitting more like the old Royals- lack of power, lack of walks and lack of clutch hitting. They have only 4 HRs this year vs. RHP and struggle more vs. RHP than vs. LHP.

Guthrie has struggled mightily at Fenway- 15 runs in his last 18 IPs there. This Red Sox team has hit lifetime .351 vs. him(and that wasn't during his Rockies debacle), and even better than that in Fenway. This is from a large sample size. Red Sox bullpen might also have a sight edge considering Holland's troubles.

Red Sox -1/2 First 5(-105) One unit.

Dusty Baker is a bum ... Quit pissing your roll away on him please .. Same with wsox ... There are actually good teams in the League we can bet on...

I know. He is well liked by his players, but basically an idiot. Too predictable and can't manage his roster. I guess I just like all the positive attributes of this team, but forget they are managed by a fool.

and the rockies bullpen blows it. last night was scary, tnght was atrocious