| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | +6.04 |
| Last 30 Days | 28 | 25 | 0.00 | +12.85 |
| Season to Date | 28 | 25 | 0.00 | +12.85 |
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All plays are for 2 units.
N.Y. Yankees +131 over TORONTO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]This just keeps getting better. The Blue Jays dropped the opener 9-4. Yesterday, Toronto rallied from a three-run deficit in the eighth to tie it up and instead of riding that momentum to a much-needed win, they lost again in 11 frames. Going to the eighth inning, the Blue Jays had two hits. The Blue Jays have now dropped four of five. Their only win over that span came against the White Sox in a game they mustered four hits in. Team morale is down and the pressure is mounting. We could write a book about the costly managerial errors that John Gibbons makes every game but let’s just say that Gibbons is way out of his league here. Josh Johnson’s decline in strikeouts and his normalized hit % and strand % are all it took for him to go from elite to mediocre last year and not much has changed this year. Johnson has a 1.81 WHIP through three starts covering just 14 frames. Johnson had an average fastball velocity of 94.0 mph in April 2011. That number dipped to 92.6 mph in April 2012 and it’s dipped again this season to 91.6. Also this year, Johnson’s groundball rate has declined and his line-drive (27%) and fly-ball rate have increased. The Blue Jays overpaid for Johnson just like you will today if you pull the trigger on him here.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Under the cover of a disastrous ERA spike last season (particularly in 2nd half), Ivan Nova posted noteworthy strikeout gains without sacrificing control. The result is a heel turn from a pitcher who had been outpitching his skills to one whose skills exceed his outward results. Nova’s groundball tilt says hr/9 problems should abate. His surge in strikeouts came with good support too. His swinging strike rate jumped from 6.6% in 2011 to 9.0% in 2012. Nova added more on his strikeout rate last year than any other AL SP not named Max Scherzer. This year, Nova has 11 K’s in 10 innings. If he can tap into the 50%+ GB% he owned in 2010-11, and signs point to him doing just that, Nova has the goods to be a really good mid-rotation starter. Nova will now face a Blue Jays lineup that is swinging at everything and usually missing. In fact, one has to wonder how the reeling Blue Jays are even going to compete here. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]N.Y. METS +125 over Washington
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. Jordan Zimmerman is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Dillon Gee is 0-3 with an 8.36 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. As a result of the surface stats, Zimmerman’s stock is soaring while Gee’s is sinking and that provides us with another buy low, sell high opportunity. Zimmerman has faced the Marlins and their team BA of .209 twice and the White Sox once (BA of .235). Zimmerman has elite control and has maintained his control numbers throughout his 61 post-surgery starts and that includes this season in which Zimmerman has walked just three batters over his first 22 frames. However, when we look under the hood we see some troubling issues. Zimmerman’s strikeout rate of 11 K’s in 22 frames this season shows a steep decline in his KO rate. He also has an alarming 24% line-drive rate. Perhaps the biggest red flag in Zimmerman’s profile is that batters are making contact on his pitches 94.4% when inside the strike zone and 80% on pitches outside the strike zone. That’s up more than 11% on his career numbers and it raises many red flags for us. Now Zimmerman will face a Mets team that is third in the majors in runs scored behind Colorado and Oakland. A regression in Zimmerman's numbers are forthcoming.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]By contrast, Dillon Gee has pitched in Colorado and Philadelphia and was hit hard at those two hitter-friendly venues. In one start at Citi Field this season, Gee went six full against the Padres and allowed three hits and one run. Gee had a 4.10 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 110 IP in 2012 before his season ended due to a shoulder problem. Those marks hid his elite skills that included a high strikeout, a low walk rate and a 50% groundball rate. In addition, Gee improved his dominant-start/disaster-start variance more than any other NL starter between 2011 and 2012. If healthy, he's got a great shot to post a sub-4.00 ERA. Three starts into the season and we see many skewed surface stats on starting pitchers. This is a good example of that and it has created one of the biggest overlays of the year so far. With the Mets’ bullpen being so erratic, we’ll take that out of the equation and play the Mets in five innings.[/FONT]
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MILWAUKEE -1½ +151 over Chicago
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Cubbies have dropped two in a row and overall have just five wins in 16 games. To avoid the sweep against the red-hot Brewers, Chicago will have to rely on Scott Feldman. Pressed into the Rangers rotation due to injuries last season, Feldman responded with excellent command and some decent overall skills. However, it’s much easier to pitch when your team is giving you tremendous run support than it is when you’re constantly behind on the scoreboard. Feldman has pitched 6 innings or less in fewer than 40% of his career games His .802 OPS last season with runners on (.808 career mark) is chronic. This season, Feldman has more walks (7) than K’s (4) and that’s just in nine frames. Feldman’s history says to avoid him and so does this year’s current form.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Brewers have won six straight. The more we see this team, the more we like them. SS Jean Segura looks like the real deal giving the Crew a deadly one through five batting order. Milwaukee has scored five runs or more in three straight and in four of its past five games. That’s with Rickie Weeks in an unsustainable hitting funk. If Weeks were hitting, and he will break out of it, the Brewers would be scoring even more runs. Wily Peralta went 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 29 IP for Milwaukee last year. Peralta spent most of year as starter in AAA, walking too many but striking out a batter per IP. He earned a Sept call-up, where he posted three pure quality starts in five attempts. While Peralta’s control is a work in progress, his big strikeout rate and elite GB tilt (64% this year) will cover a few too many BBs. Peralta has the skills to dominate a line-up and is on the verge of being a mainstay in the rotation if he can throw more strikes. The Brewers should get plenty today, allowing Peralta to be very aggressive here and go right after this weak hitting Cubs lineup. For the Brewers, the beat goes on and it’s likely to be by two runs or more.
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