The Method

Vauxhall · Apr 21, 2013

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http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=953740

Let it be understood up front that the record in it is 3-5 (really 5-5, but I won’t go there again) and I’m down over $550 from a $4,900 starting bankroll. My hope was to focus exclusively on the KC Royals and therefore have inside angles. I did that last year with success, but it is VERY time-consuming.

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ontVertAlignInTxbx/> <w:Word11KerningPairs/> <w:CachedColBalance/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> On the side, I have been experimenting with a spreadsheet model. I have been testing it over the last week and it has been hitting, especially on totals. Here’s how it works…….

Begin each day looking at the entire slate of games. Then start narrowing down. I will explain the rationale for each of the steps below:

1. Eliminate any game where one of the starting pitchers is a rookie.

2. Eliminate any game (unless the other team is in the same situation) where a superstar player has recently left the line-up due to injury or rest (for example, he’s been injured within the last three weeks).
3. Eliminate any inter-league game.
4. Eliminate any game threatened by bad weather.
5. Eliminate any game where one team is favored by -140 or more.
6. Eliminate any game where one team traveled the previous day, while the other team didn’t.

What you have left are games where two teams are deemed by the “public” to be fairly evenly matched, playing in good weather, under similar scheduling circumstances, with experienced pitchers, in the same league, and with equally handicapped line-ups. Under these circumstances, these games are predictable!! Now I am ready to run them through the model.

Vauxhall · Apr 21, 2013

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Without getting too technical, the variables are linked via weighted averages that ultimately produce a game score. If this sounds like AccuScore, or some such nonsense, it’s not! It’s much better. AccuScore does not consider injuries, travel schedules, pitcher experience, etc. And AccuScore does not feature the CORRECT variables.

These are the correct variables:

- Each pitcher’s most recent start, and the three previous home (for the home pitcher) or away (for the visiting pitcher) starts.

- Runs scored (on average) for each team’s last seven home (for the home team) or away (for the visiting team) games.

- Each pitcher’s average run support in the last five home (for the home pitcher) and away (for the visiting pitcher) games.

- An average ERA for each team’s bullpen, pulled from these two variables: the last 10 games, and all home (for the home team) and away (for the road team) games.

- Each pitcher’s ERA when adjusted against a ratio that reflects the difference in performance between the pitcher’s day and night games. Use the appropriate one based on whether it’s a day or night game.

- Previous pitcher performance against the team within the last two years, but only if the game was away (for the visiting pitcher) or home (for the home pitcher).

Vituperate · Apr 21, 2013

Vauxhall · Apr 21, 2013

I am trying to post a photo of the model but I can't figure out how to upload it.

Vauxhall · Apr 21, 2013

The only two qualifying games today were the Tiger/Angels and the Cards/Phillies.

Model predicted:
Cards 5
Phillies 2

Angels 3
Tigers 3

The "system" plays would therefore be: Cards ML, Cards under 8.5, and Tigers under 8

Vauxhall · Apr 21, 2013

I did not look at the Royals' games because of the confusion and emotions involved in that double-header. Throw the stats out the window there.

Vauxhall · Apr 21, 2013

Another caveat: in order to make a ML play, the model has to predict a two-run differential, not just one run. So if it predicted the Cardinals to win 7-6, that would be a no-play on the ML. But 8-6 would be a ML play (and anything higher obviously). RL wagers are sucker bets and are not allowed.

Same goes with a totals play. Must be 1.5 run differential or higher to be a play.

Vauxhall · Apr 21, 2013

Each day, I will post all the model's plays, but I will only wager on ONE of them. It will be the play with the greatest differential either on the ML or the total.

To recap. 4/21/2013

System Plays:
Detroit/LAA under 8
Cardinals ML -119
Cards/Phils under 8.5

My Play:
Cardinals ML
$216 to win $182

XSPower · Apr 21, 2013

Vauxhall said:
Each day, I will post all the model's plays, but I will only wager on ONE of them. It will be the play with the greatest differential either on the ML or the total.

To recap. 4/21/2013

System Plays:
Detroit/LAA under 8
Cardinals ML -119
Cards/Phils under 8.5

My Play:
Cardinals ML
$216 to win $182

Good luck today my friend!!!!

XS

Vauxhall · Apr 21, 2013

Vauxhall · Apr 21, 2013

There it is, but it doesn't do you much good without being able to see the embedded formulas.

fly73 · Apr 21, 2013

moto94536 · Apr 21, 2013

Here is my strategy. I look for + - lines, The TEAM batting average, runs per game, rbi per game. ( the last 3 days or 4 days ), for example, Twins vs Whitesox. Twins won the game on april 20.. So I will pick Twins to win again on april 21.. This method doesn't work all the time, but you can atleast predict it. good luck. This is for the Monday games. I think those teams gonna win. Twins, Angels, Cleveland, Houston, Arizona, Pitts, Brewers.

Vauxhall · Apr 21, 2013

The model nailed the Tigers/Angels game. The game went to extras tied 3-3.

moto94536 · Apr 21, 2013

how about this one. Angles last 3 games. ( 7.67 runs per game - 4.33 ( 2013 season ) = angles most likely score 3.34 to 4.33 runs. Detroit last 3 games ( 1.33 runs per game, and 4.44 runs per game ( 2013 season ).. So tigers most likely score 3 runs.

moto94536 · Apr 21, 2013

so pick any games for Monday, and I will figure out the prediction score.

Vauxhall · Apr 22, 2013

System Plays:
Moneyline: 0-1
Totals: 1-1
Overall: 1-2

My Plays: 3-6
Starting Bankroll: $4,900
Current Bankroll: $4,101

Vauxhall · Apr 22, 2013

4/22/2013

System only has one play today, but it's a lock.

Vauxhall · Apr 22, 2013

YANKEES / RAYS over 6.5
$205 to win $164

predicted score:

Yankees 6
rays 5

moto94536 · Apr 22, 2013

I think yankee 5, tampa 3 .

The Method

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