| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +3.52 |
| Last 30 Days | 30 | 26 | 0.00 | +16.37 |
| Season to Date | 30 | 26 | 0.00 | +16.37 |
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All plays are for 2 units
Cleveland -104 over CHICAGO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The White Sox have dropped three in a row. Against the Twins this past weekend they scored a total of four runs in two games and failed to do damage against Scott Diamond and Vance Worley. You might want to read that last sentence again. The White Sox couldn't get to either stiff, Scott Diamond or Vance Worley. Overall, the South Side ranks last in the AL in runs scored with 61 in 18 games. Dylan Axelrod has a WHIP of 1.57. Any WHIP over 1.50 is a disaster waiting to happen. In 15 IP, Axelrod has 7 walks and 9 K’s to go along with a 4.70 ERA. His xERA is 5.13. Axelrod is filling while John Danks is on the DL. The combination of Axelrod’s pitching and the White Sox offense is one of the worst in the business and the fact that it is favored over Justin Masterson and the Indians is bordering on ludicrous.[/FONT]
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After erupting for 19 runs on Saturday, the Tribe followed that up with a 5-4 win on Sunday to take the final two games at Houston. A couple of wins and plenty of bombs (Cleveland hit seven HR’s combined on Saturday and Sunday) does wonders for a teams’ psyche. Justin Masterson has gained 2.1 mph on his fastball from April 2012 to so far in April 2013, the biggest jump of any starter in the majors. Masterson has an elite 58% groundball rate, an elite strikeout rate (25 K’s in 27 innings), a low line-drive rate of 15% and a very good WHIP of 1.11. Masterson is flashing better skills than his 2011 breakout season and he’s also throwing more strikes. Walks are the only thing that has hurt this guy over the years but with just nine in 27 innings over four starts, he seems to have tackled that hurdle also. Masterson is a true bargain so get on this one early because the line isn’t likely to stay where it is.[/FONT]
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Oakland +115 over BOSTON
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Red Sox are coming off a long day yesterday in which they were swept in a day/night double-header by the Royals. That came after a week of pure chaos in Boston, rendering the Red Sox to be a little spent right now. Felix Doubront has maintained an impressive strikeout rate this year (13K’s in 10 IP) but there are far more warning signs than positive signs in his profile. Doubront has an alarming 1.71 WHIP. His ball-in-play profile is even more disturbing with a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 28%/41%/31%. Pay close attention to that 41% line-drive rate, the MLB’s worst mark of any pitcher with at least 10 innings. Small sample size you say? Perhaps so but the long ball has killed him for two straight seasons and so has an abysmal .894 OPS with RISP and .815 OPS at Fenway. There's plenty of work to be done here for Doubront, as this guy isn’t close to being reliable. Against southpaws, the A’s are hitting an AL best .306.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Red Sox are off to a quick 12-6 start but they will not maintain that pace. Boston’s 162 strikeouts rank as the third worst mark in the majors behind Houston and Seattle. Its .253 team batting average does not equate to a .667 winning percentage. Additionally, the A’s have had much success against the Red Sox recently with eight straight wins while outscoring Boston 56-15 over that span. A. J. Griffin went 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA in 82 IP for the A’s last year. Griffin excelled in the upper minors and carried it over to the big leagues. Control is his best asset but he also misses bats reasonably and handles righties/lefties equally well. This year, Griffin is off to a 2-0 start with a 2.25 ERA. He owns an impressive 1.15 WHIP. Current Red Sox have five hits in 28 career AB’s versus Griffin for a BA of .179. Pitching matchup and situation both favor the A’s and the tag makes Oakland even more appealing. [/FONT]
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Chicago/CINCINNATI over 8 -113
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Travis Wood owns an impressive-looking 1.83 ERA but that ERA is not close to being supported by the underlying skills. Wood has 13K’s and 8 BB in 20 innings. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is 37%/21%/42%. Wood’s high fly-ball rate will continue to lead to issues with the long ball and that’s likely to come to fruition here. Wood has pitched all three of his games at pitcher friendly venues this season. He opened the year in Pittsburgh when the Pirates were seeing BB’s and followed that up with two home starts at Wrigley with the wind blowing in against Milwaukee and Texas. Muhammad Ali could pitch well in Chicago with the winds blowing in. Things change for Wood here. The Reds are crushing left-handed pitching this season (.877 OPS) and are now 4-1 at Great American against southpaws. Finally Wood was a member of the Reds in 2010-11. In 16 appearances at Great American (14 starts), Wood went 3-7 with a 5.65 ERA and a .300 BAA. The kid is not well suited for this park.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
In the remote chance that Wood throws a decent game, chances are Mike Leake will not. In 19 frames this year, Leake has a 4.26 ERA with a close xERA of 4.14. Leake struggled in 2012 due to the combination of a 25% line-drive rate and a 17% hr/f, despite recording his typically strong 49% groundball rate. Those numbers last year are right in line with his early numbers this year. In other words, it’s no mystery as to what Mike Leake brings to the table. He’s an average pitcher with average results. His 40%/27% quality start/disaster start from last season raises fears of risky results. Lastly, the Cubbies offense is not as bad as some think. This team is on the verge of scoring some runs. The Cubs have five guys in the lineup hitting over .280 (DeJesus .283, Castro .301, Soriano .284, Schierholtz .300 and W. Castillo .375). Anthony Rizzo is batting just .210 but has six jacks and 14 RBI’s. Chicago’s 20 jacks ranks them 12th in the majors. We’re not asking the Cubbies or Reds to go off for crooked numbers here. What we have is two very average pitchers at a hitter-friendly park and chances are one of these two teams is going to score six or more. The rest will take care of itself.
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Cleveland -104 over CHICAGO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The White Sox have dropped three in a row. Against the Twins this past weekend they scored a total of four runs in two games and failed to do damage against Scott Diamond and Vance Worley. You might want to read that last sentence again. The White Sox couldn't get to either stiff, Scott Diamond or Vance Worley. Overall, the South Side ranks last in the AL in runs scored with 61 in 18 games. Dylan Axelrod has a WHIP of 1.57. Any WHIP over 1.50 is a disaster waiting to happen. In 15 IP, Axelrod has 7 walks and 9 K’s to go along with a 4.70 ERA. His xERA is 5.13. Axelrod is filling while John Danks is on the DL. The combination of Axelrod’s pitching and the White Sox offense is one of the worst in the business and the fact that it is favored over Justin Masterson and the Indians is bordering on ludicrous.[/FONT]
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After erupting for 19 runs on Saturday, the Tribe followed that up with a 5-4 win on Sunday to take the final two games at Houston. A couple of wins and plenty of bombs (Cleveland hit seven HR’s combined on Saturday and Sunday) does wonders for a teams’ psyche. Justin Masterson has gained 2.1 mph on his fastball from April 2012 to so far in April 2013, the biggest jump of any starter in the majors. Masterson has an elite 58% groundball rate, an elite strikeout rate (25 K’s in 27 innings), a low line-drive rate of 15% and a very good WHIP of 1.11. Masterson is flashing better skills than his 2011 breakout season and he’s also throwing more strikes. Walks are the only thing that has hurt this guy over the years but with just nine in 27 innings over four starts, he seems to have tackled that hurdle also. Masterson is a true bargain so get on this one early because the line isn’t likely to stay where it is.[/FONT]
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Oakland +115 over BOSTON
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Red Sox are coming off a long day yesterday in which they were swept in a day/night double-header by the Royals. That came after a week of pure chaos in Boston, rendering the Red Sox to be a little spent right now. Felix Doubront has maintained an impressive strikeout rate this year (13K’s in 10 IP) but there are far more warning signs than positive signs in his profile. Doubront has an alarming 1.71 WHIP. His ball-in-play profile is even more disturbing with a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 28%/41%/31%. Pay close attention to that 41% line-drive rate, the MLB’s worst mark of any pitcher with at least 10 innings. Small sample size you say? Perhaps so but the long ball has killed him for two straight seasons and so has an abysmal .894 OPS with RISP and .815 OPS at Fenway. There's plenty of work to be done here for Doubront, as this guy isn’t close to being reliable. Against southpaws, the A’s are hitting an AL best .306.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Red Sox are off to a quick 12-6 start but they will not maintain that pace. Boston’s 162 strikeouts rank as the third worst mark in the majors behind Houston and Seattle. Its .253 team batting average does not equate to a .667 winning percentage. Additionally, the A’s have had much success against the Red Sox recently with eight straight wins while outscoring Boston 56-15 over that span. A. J. Griffin went 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA in 82 IP for the A’s last year. Griffin excelled in the upper minors and carried it over to the big leagues. Control is his best asset but he also misses bats reasonably and handles righties/lefties equally well. This year, Griffin is off to a 2-0 start with a 2.25 ERA. He owns an impressive 1.15 WHIP. Current Red Sox have five hits in 28 career AB’s versus Griffin for a BA of .179. Pitching matchup and situation both favor the A’s and the tag makes Oakland even more appealing. [/FONT]
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Chicago/CINCINNATI over 8 -113
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Travis Wood owns an impressive-looking 1.83 ERA but that ERA is not close to being supported by the underlying skills. Wood has 13K’s and 8 BB in 20 innings. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is 37%/21%/42%. Wood’s high fly-ball rate will continue to lead to issues with the long ball and that’s likely to come to fruition here. Wood has pitched all three of his games at pitcher friendly venues this season. He opened the year in Pittsburgh when the Pirates were seeing BB’s and followed that up with two home starts at Wrigley with the wind blowing in against Milwaukee and Texas. Muhammad Ali could pitch well in Chicago with the winds blowing in. Things change for Wood here. The Reds are crushing left-handed pitching this season (.877 OPS) and are now 4-1 at Great American against southpaws. Finally Wood was a member of the Reds in 2010-11. In 16 appearances at Great American (14 starts), Wood went 3-7 with a 5.65 ERA and a .300 BAA. The kid is not well suited for this park.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
In the remote chance that Wood throws a decent game, chances are Mike Leake will not. In 19 frames this year, Leake has a 4.26 ERA with a close xERA of 4.14. Leake struggled in 2012 due to the combination of a 25% line-drive rate and a 17% hr/f, despite recording his typically strong 49% groundball rate. Those numbers last year are right in line with his early numbers this year. In other words, it’s no mystery as to what Mike Leake brings to the table. He’s an average pitcher with average results. His 40%/27% quality start/disaster start from last season raises fears of risky results. Lastly, the Cubbies offense is not as bad as some think. This team is on the verge of scoring some runs. The Cubs have five guys in the lineup hitting over .280 (DeJesus .283, Castro .301, Soriano .284, Schierholtz .300 and W. Castillo .375). Anthony Rizzo is batting just .210 but has six jacks and 14 RBI’s. Chicago’s 20 jacks ranks them 12th in the majors. We’re not asking the Cubbies or Reds to go off for crooked numbers here. What we have is two very average pitchers at a hitter-friendly park and chances are one of these two teams is going to score six or more. The rest will take care of itself.
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