[h=1]Potential 2013 draft trade spots[/h][h=3]Bill Polian looks at several QB-centric draft pivot points in Round 1[/h]
By Bill Polian | ESPN Insider
In what likely will be a highly unpredictable draft, we've finally started to get a little bit of clarity. If the Kansas City Chiefs go through with their rumored trade of tackle Branden Albert to the Miami Dolphins, it seems apparent that Kansas City will use the No. 1 overall pick to take an offensive tackle -- likely either Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher.
Then the intrigue begins.
NFL teams are trying to decipher a fairly cloudy picture at the top of Round 1, attempting to predict how the draft will unfold in order to ensure themselves one of their top targets. As I've said previously, most teams will be able to guess the first-round picks with about 75 percent certainty. But every year a draft has what I call pivot points, where the expected progression of picks goes out the window and the draft veers in an unexpected direction, usually due to a trade.
Traditionally, the first round is more predictable because teams usually select the best player on their board, making sure they're getting the best possible value for that draft slot. This season, we have an interesting situation due to the disparity of the value of the 2013 quarterback prospects and the overall value of the QB position in the NFL. Take a look at the top of the draft order and you'll see a pretty obvious theme. Poor quarterbacking cost many of these teams in 2013, and they have an obvious need at the position. The problem is, in my estimation, none of the quarterbacks in this draft warrant a selection at the top of the draft.
So what happens now? In my mind, picks are going to move and we're going to see some trades. And remember, trades at the top of the draft board are easier now than ever, in an era of cost certainty around the picks.
Let's run through Round 1 to see which picks may be in play and how QB-centric trades in the 2013 NFL draft could unfold.
<OFFER>
Pivot Point: No. 3 overall, Oakland Raiders
As of now, I think the Chiefs and Jaguars will hold on to their first picks and use them. I discussed the Chiefs a little earlier, but I think the Jags simply need to add an impact player. Trading down may give them more picks, but it would likely cost them a shot at one of the five players I consider the best in this class -- Joeckel, Fisher, Dee Milliner, Star Lotulelei (assuming he's fully healthy) and Ezekiel Ansah. Those are the blues -- the cornerstone-caliber players -- in this draft, and the Jags need as many blues as they can get.
Assuming that scenario plays out, we come to Oakland. If the Raiders want a quarterback, they can have their pick at No. 3. But that pick is a gamble that could badly cost Oakland. And it might be one the Raiders can't afford to take.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Elite players in the draft[/h]Despite the emphasis on quarterbacks in this article, teams certainly could make a move to obtain one of the top non-quarterbacks in this draft. Because I no longer have access to all of the data that I had as a general manager, my evaluations are more of a scouting nature, based on tape and the measurable data at the combine. With those tools, I've identified 12 players who stand out as solid first-rounders (in no particular order): Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Dee Milliner, Star Lotulelei, Chance Warmack, Dion Jordan, Tyler Eifert, D.J. Fluker, Sharrif Floyd, Sheldon Richardson, Jonathan Cooper and Ezekiel Ansah.
As a whole, they form their own kind of pivot point. Because once they're gone, there's a bit of a drop-off to the next group. Some of those names are more enticing that others -- for example, you seldom trade up to add a guard or a tight end -- but as those names start to come off the board, we could see a team move up to ensure selecting one of the 12 best players in the draft. And it may try to trade places with a team interested in taking a quarterback later in the round.
<!-- end inline 1 -->The Raiders have added only two first-round picks since 2009 -- Darrius Heyward-Bey and Rolando McClain, neither of whom is still on the team -- and have just three picks in the first five rounds this year. Miss on the wrong player at No. 3 overall and the Raiders don't pick again until No. 66 in Round 3. The Raiders need more of a talent infusion than that, and they could be candidates to trade back if a team wants to jump up and get one of the draft's top talents or assure themselves of the top quarterback on the board.
But if the Raiders keep this selection, it may set up our next pivot point.
Pivot Point: Picks No. 4-6
Technically these are multiple points, but with so many scenarios to consider, it makes sense to group them together because the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns all could move from these spots.
I see this as a particularly volatile area because of the quarterbacks. If Oakland takes Geno Smith (a surprise, but not an impossibility) at No. 3, it could start a run on quarterbacks because there are many QB-needy teams on deck. If the Raiders don't take Smith, suddenly the top QB prospect on some boards is available -- with a bunch of QB-needy teams on deck.
While Smith and the other quarterbacks may not grade out as top-10 picks, you might miss them altogether if you don't act. That fear could be a powerful motivator. And while a miss on a quarterback may cost a lot in terms of draft capital, it won't cost a lot of money. That kind of cost assessment could spark a move. But where do you try to make the deal?
The least likely to move is the Lions. I think they'll get one of the players they're targeting -- likely one of the top offensive tackles, pass-rushers or Milliner -- at No. 5 and would move only if they get a great offer. But the Eagles may be more interested in trading down.
If the Eagles are targeting a quarterback to run Chip Kelly's schemes, EJ Manuel would be perfect. But No. 4 is far too high to take him. They could try to trade down a few picks, take a pass-rusher like Dion Jordan and aim for Manuel either in Round 2 or by trading back into the bottom of the first to get him.
Without a second-round pick, the Browns may be motivated to trade down if the top prospects on their board are already gone. And teams seeking a quarterback may want to jump ahead of the Cardinals and Bills.
These three picks are likely going to be fluid and exciting to watch unfold on draft day.
Pivot Point: Picks 16 and 22, St. Louis Rams
Pivot Point: Picks 23 and 25, Minnesota Vikings
Again, the quarterbacks are dictating things, as they often do. This scenario presumes that one or more of the top QB prospects has slipped through the first stretch of QB-needy teams that runs until roughly No. 10 (and maybe even to No. 13 with the Jets). If I want to make sure I get my prospect, I'm calling the Rams about one of their two first-rounders. If they pass, my next call is to the Vikings, but my instincts are that they would hold on to both picks. Minnesota has the ability to add two solid players to a playoff team, and I think they'll end up using both selections. Remember that the Rams have traded down before.
Pivot Point: Pick 26, Green Bay Packers
Pivot Point: Picks 29 (New England Patriots); 30 (Atlanta Falcons); and 32 (Baltimore Ravens)
If teams have waited to pick a quarterback this long, they've definitely decreased the asking price to move around in the first round, which makes a trade late in the round more likely. If you're weighing the risk of another team jumping ahead of you and taking your player, the cost of inaction is likely higher than the cost of making a trade to move up yourself.
I could see the Packers interested in moving back, particularly if they're targeting a running back, as some believe. If they're not in love with any single running back, they could add some picks, move back and still get a runner who can help them next season.
While I would imagine the Ravens and Falcons would be open to moving down, depending on the offer and the status of their draft boards, if I wanted to get back into Round 1, I'm on the phone with the Patriots. They've proved willing to play the value game and move down in the past. I suspect they would have interest in swapping their late first for an early second and a little extra.
Nothing is set in stone. It's more like sand. The one thing I'd say for certain is that this year's draft may be the most unpredictable of any I can remember. The ease of making trades amplifies that. It's going to be interesting to watch it all unfold starting Thursday night.
By Bill Polian | ESPN Insider
In what likely will be a highly unpredictable draft, we've finally started to get a little bit of clarity. If the Kansas City Chiefs go through with their rumored trade of tackle Branden Albert to the Miami Dolphins, it seems apparent that Kansas City will use the No. 1 overall pick to take an offensive tackle -- likely either Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher.
Then the intrigue begins.
NFL teams are trying to decipher a fairly cloudy picture at the top of Round 1, attempting to predict how the draft will unfold in order to ensure themselves one of their top targets. As I've said previously, most teams will be able to guess the first-round picks with about 75 percent certainty. But every year a draft has what I call pivot points, where the expected progression of picks goes out the window and the draft veers in an unexpected direction, usually due to a trade.
Traditionally, the first round is more predictable because teams usually select the best player on their board, making sure they're getting the best possible value for that draft slot. This season, we have an interesting situation due to the disparity of the value of the 2013 quarterback prospects and the overall value of the QB position in the NFL. Take a look at the top of the draft order and you'll see a pretty obvious theme. Poor quarterbacking cost many of these teams in 2013, and they have an obvious need at the position. The problem is, in my estimation, none of the quarterbacks in this draft warrant a selection at the top of the draft.
So what happens now? In my mind, picks are going to move and we're going to see some trades. And remember, trades at the top of the draft board are easier now than ever, in an era of cost certainty around the picks.
Let's run through Round 1 to see which picks may be in play and how QB-centric trades in the 2013 NFL draft could unfold.
<OFFER>
Pivot Point: No. 3 overall, Oakland Raiders
As of now, I think the Chiefs and Jaguars will hold on to their first picks and use them. I discussed the Chiefs a little earlier, but I think the Jags simply need to add an impact player. Trading down may give them more picks, but it would likely cost them a shot at one of the five players I consider the best in this class -- Joeckel, Fisher, Dee Milliner, Star Lotulelei (assuming he's fully healthy) and Ezekiel Ansah. Those are the blues -- the cornerstone-caliber players -- in this draft, and the Jags need as many blues as they can get.
Assuming that scenario plays out, we come to Oakland. If the Raiders want a quarterback, they can have their pick at No. 3. But that pick is a gamble that could badly cost Oakland. And it might be one the Raiders can't afford to take.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Elite players in the draft[/h]Despite the emphasis on quarterbacks in this article, teams certainly could make a move to obtain one of the top non-quarterbacks in this draft. Because I no longer have access to all of the data that I had as a general manager, my evaluations are more of a scouting nature, based on tape and the measurable data at the combine. With those tools, I've identified 12 players who stand out as solid first-rounders (in no particular order): Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Dee Milliner, Star Lotulelei, Chance Warmack, Dion Jordan, Tyler Eifert, D.J. Fluker, Sharrif Floyd, Sheldon Richardson, Jonathan Cooper and Ezekiel Ansah.
As a whole, they form their own kind of pivot point. Because once they're gone, there's a bit of a drop-off to the next group. Some of those names are more enticing that others -- for example, you seldom trade up to add a guard or a tight end -- but as those names start to come off the board, we could see a team move up to ensure selecting one of the 12 best players in the draft. And it may try to trade places with a team interested in taking a quarterback later in the round.
-- Bill Polian
<!-- end inline 1 -->The Raiders have added only two first-round picks since 2009 -- Darrius Heyward-Bey and Rolando McClain, neither of whom is still on the team -- and have just three picks in the first five rounds this year. Miss on the wrong player at No. 3 overall and the Raiders don't pick again until No. 66 in Round 3. The Raiders need more of a talent infusion than that, and they could be candidates to trade back if a team wants to jump up and get one of the draft's top talents or assure themselves of the top quarterback on the board.
But if the Raiders keep this selection, it may set up our next pivot point.
Pivot Point: Picks No. 4-6
Technically these are multiple points, but with so many scenarios to consider, it makes sense to group them together because the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns all could move from these spots.
I see this as a particularly volatile area because of the quarterbacks. If Oakland takes Geno Smith (a surprise, but not an impossibility) at No. 3, it could start a run on quarterbacks because there are many QB-needy teams on deck. If the Raiders don't take Smith, suddenly the top QB prospect on some boards is available -- with a bunch of QB-needy teams on deck.
While Smith and the other quarterbacks may not grade out as top-10 picks, you might miss them altogether if you don't act. That fear could be a powerful motivator. And while a miss on a quarterback may cost a lot in terms of draft capital, it won't cost a lot of money. That kind of cost assessment could spark a move. But where do you try to make the deal?
The least likely to move is the Lions. I think they'll get one of the players they're targeting -- likely one of the top offensive tackles, pass-rushers or Milliner -- at No. 5 and would move only if they get a great offer. But the Eagles may be more interested in trading down.
If the Eagles are targeting a quarterback to run Chip Kelly's schemes, EJ Manuel would be perfect. But No. 4 is far too high to take him. They could try to trade down a few picks, take a pass-rusher like Dion Jordan and aim for Manuel either in Round 2 or by trading back into the bottom of the first to get him.
Without a second-round pick, the Browns may be motivated to trade down if the top prospects on their board are already gone. And teams seeking a quarterback may want to jump ahead of the Cardinals and Bills.
These three picks are likely going to be fluid and exciting to watch unfold on draft day.
Pivot Point: Picks 16 and 22, St. Louis Rams
Pivot Point: Picks 23 and 25, Minnesota Vikings
Again, the quarterbacks are dictating things, as they often do. This scenario presumes that one or more of the top QB prospects has slipped through the first stretch of QB-needy teams that runs until roughly No. 10 (and maybe even to No. 13 with the Jets). If I want to make sure I get my prospect, I'm calling the Rams about one of their two first-rounders. If they pass, my next call is to the Vikings, but my instincts are that they would hold on to both picks. Minnesota has the ability to add two solid players to a playoff team, and I think they'll end up using both selections. Remember that the Rams have traded down before.
Pivot Point: Pick 26, Green Bay Packers
Pivot Point: Picks 29 (New England Patriots); 30 (Atlanta Falcons); and 32 (Baltimore Ravens)
If teams have waited to pick a quarterback this long, they've definitely decreased the asking price to move around in the first round, which makes a trade late in the round more likely. If you're weighing the risk of another team jumping ahead of you and taking your player, the cost of inaction is likely higher than the cost of making a trade to move up yourself.
I could see the Packers interested in moving back, particularly if they're targeting a running back, as some believe. If they're not in love with any single running back, they could add some picks, move back and still get a runner who can help them next season.
While I would imagine the Ravens and Falcons would be open to moving down, depending on the offer and the status of their draft boards, if I wanted to get back into Round 1, I'm on the phone with the Patriots. They've proved willing to play the value game and move down in the past. I suspect they would have interest in swapping their late first for an early second and a little extra.
Nothing is set in stone. It's more like sand. The one thing I'd say for certain is that this year's draft may be the most unpredictable of any I can remember. The ease of making trades amplifies that. It's going to be interesting to watch it all unfold starting Thursday night.
