| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 32 | 28 | 0.00 | +16.14 |
| Season to Date | 32 | 28 | 0.00 | +16.14 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
All plays are for 2 units.
BALTIMORE +124 over Toronto
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Blue Jays are favored here because they will be facing Josh Stinson, a 25-year-old who was claimed off of waivers from Oakland on April 4th after the A’s had claimed him off waivers from the Brewers the previous week. The Brewers acquired the 24-year-old off waivers from the Mets organization in April ’12. Stinson pitched 13 innings with New York in ’11. He relies on spotting his 87-93 mph sinking fastball low in the zone and getting hitters to bury it into the ground. He can throw his four-seamer a little quicker but he’s at his best when he mixes his sinker, hard curveball, slider, and change-up. Stinson posted a 3.16 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 0.43 HR/9 in 145 1/3 Triple-A innings. Frankly, we couldn’t give a rat’s ass on who is pitching for the Orioles. The Jays have made just about every average pitcher they’ve faced this year look like Sandy Koufax. The Blue Jays dropped the first two games of this series and had it not been for a blowup by the Yankees pen in the finale of a three-game series in Toronto this past weekend, the Blue Jays would be on a five-game losing streak. Only the Miami Marlins team batting average of .226 is lower than the Blue Jays team BA of .229.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Then there’s Brandon Morrow. We’re not sure why this guy gets so much credit. At one time, Morrow had as much or more promise than just about any pitcher in the big leagues but he has never lived up to expectations. This year his skills are the worst of his career and there are plenty of warning signs that support his high ERA. Morrow is striking out less batters and he has a disturbing 32%/47% groundball/fly-ball ratio. He comes into this one with a 1.71 WHIP, a BAA of .333, an ERA of 5.57 and a road ERA of 6.52. Morrow has been taken yard four times in 21 frames. Some pitchers have a fierce competitive spirit that makes them hate losing more than anything. Morrow has never shown that. He’s a guy with little emotion that is happy to pitch every fifth day while making a ton of money. Now his confidence is low and these Orioles are very capable of sniffing a wounded animal. Should we even mention the huge managerial edge the Orioles have? Nah, forget it. Jays favored here is incorrect. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]St. Louis +134 over WASHINGTON
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Everyone knows Stephen Strasburg can pitch. However, the Nationals have won just one of the four games he’s thrown in and lefties are hitting .268 against him. Trouble versus lefties is the only blip on his résumé and the Cardinals can pencil in at least four and possibly five left-handed hitters. Additionally, the Nationals have lost three in a row and they’re just 10-10 on the season. This isn’t about fading Strasburg though. This wager is all about backing the potential profit combination of St. Louis and Jaime Garcia. [/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
A consistent strikeout rate and a consistently good ERA came into question 18 months ago when doctors discovered damage in Jaime Garcia’s left shoulder. On the shelf for two months in the middle of the 2012 season, Garcia rebounded with solid skills over the final two months of the campaign. Walks are up so far through four starts this year but there’s a lot to like in the similarity of Garcia’s numbers to the salad days of 2010-11. Garcia is a pure GB pitcher (62%) and continues to keep the ball on the playable side of the fence. One could throw a blanket over the similar xERA figures of the last three years-plus, and Garcia has also been consistent with those years, from month to month. Garcia owns a very good strikeout rate in each of his last four full months of action. In 2012 Garcia’s velocity was down a bit. It has rebounded a little thus far in 2013 but more importantly, his ability to move the ball and induce grounders continues to be a talent his backers can rely on, making this price on Garcia and the Cardinals too good to ignore.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Chicago +144 over CINCINNATI
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. 12:35 PM EST. The Cubbies six wins are the same number of wins as the Astros and one more than Miami and San Diego. How can that be? Chicago’s starting pitching has been nothing short of brilliant and when you get pitching like that, regardless of whether you are scoring runs or not, (the Dodgers won games for years with great pitching and no offense), you are supposed to win games. Chicago’s 6-13 record has this fairly decent team grossly undervalued and we’ll look to take advantage beginning here. The Cubs had a lead going to the sixth inning in both games of this series so we’ll look to take the pens out of the equation here by playing the Cubs in the first five innings. After making just a few spot starts for the Cubs in previous years, Jeff Samardzija became a rotation mainstay last season where he thrived in the second half with a 2.58 ERA, fanning almost 10 batters a game. Samardzija's skills are not only holding up as a regular starter, they’re improving. Samardzija has whiffed 31 batters in 27 frames. His groundball is at an elite 58% and perhaps most importantly, his walks are down with just 7 in 27 IP. Not often to you get to take back a tag like this on a pitcher of this quality. Win or lose, the value is fantastic.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Mat Latos moved from the best pitcher's park in San Diego to this hitter's park with ERA and WHIP virtually unchanged. Latos reminds us that elite skills don’t care about a park’s dimensions. Latos’s strikeout rate is at an elite level this season but there is one somewhat disturbing stat in his profile. Latos has a 39%/24%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball ratio after four starts. He’s already been tagged for three bombs with two of those occurring at this park in his season debut against the Angels. His other start at Great American came against the Marlins so we’re not even going to count that one. Fact is, with that profile, Latos is sure to give up some long balls at this park and if the Cubbies can go deep one time and score a couple of runs, this ticket will be very cashable. Big overlay here. [/FONT]
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Cleveland +115 over CHICAGO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The White Sox continue to struggle at the plate and with that comes added pressure on both the defense and the starters. Over their past four games the South Side has scored seven times. Overall, Chicago is batting .229 and its 63 runs scored ranks them last in the AL. Lefty Jose Quintana followed up a poor season debut with two quality starts but there is no single hallmark skill in his profile. Quintana does have 17’s in 18 frames but with just 98 K’s in 154 career innings, we’re going to have to see a larger sample this year before trusting that Quintana will be able to maintain that strikeout pace. Quintana is just 24-years old and he has growth potential but his batted ball profile of 40%/20%/40% (GB/LD/FB) says he’s walking a tight rope.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Indians have seen plenty of southpaws this year. Cleveland’s 286 AB’s against lefties is tops in the league by a wide margin (Cincinnati is second with 237 AB’s). The Indians have hit a solid .267 against lefties with a just as solid .342 OBP, .469 SLG % and .810 OPS. Zach McAllister went 6-8 with a 4.24 ERA with 110 Ks in 125 IP last season. There is a foundation here for something interesting. McAllister’s rising strikeout rate and solid control is promising. He has 16 K’s and just three walks in 17 frames. Additionally, McAllister dominated righties in the second half of last season and he’s carried that over to this season with a .206 BAA versus right-handed batters. The White Sox are loaded on the right side with seven of the nine starters batting right including the entire infield. McAllister is a pitcher on our radar and we’ll gladly step in on him here. [/FONT]
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Milwaukee -116 over SAN DIEGO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Brewers have won nine straight and this pitching matchup favors Milwaukee more than all of those previous nine. The best pitch in baseball is still strike one but Edinson Volquez is not capable of throwing strikes consistently and that’s the main reason that the Padres are winless in four starts with Volquez going. The right-hander has walked 10 batters in 18 innings and six batters over his past nine innings. He’s given up 29 hits in those 18 frames (BAA of .354) because batters are sitting on those 2-0 and 3-1 fastballs that are inevitably on the way. Volquez has a 2.13 WHIP after four starts with an 8.84 ERA and now he has to face a team that is seeing beach balls. This can’t end well for this volatile chucker.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Marco Estrada has a 4.50 ERA after four starts and that has him undervalued. Estrada emerged last season as a dominant starter in spite of not having elite raw stuff. His pitch movement gives an explanation for how he was able to deceive batters. The vertical pitch movement on his four-seam fastball was one of the best in MLB among SP with at least 100 IP. This allowed him to generate strikeouts on that pitch even though he had a pedestrian 90 mph average fastball velocity. With surging skill trends and a mid-3.00s xERA, Estrada has the profile to post another sub-4.00 ERA in 2013 and so far everything looks even better than last season. In 24 innings, Estrada has whiffed 25 batters while walking just four. In 11 frames against the Rockies and Cardinals in two of his four starts, Estrada whiffed 15 batters and walked just one. If Mat Latos is -165 over Jeff Samardzija, how in the world can Marco Estrada be just -120 over Edinson Volquez and the Padres? Serious underlay offers up nothing but value.
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BALTIMORE +124 over Toronto
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Blue Jays are favored here because they will be facing Josh Stinson, a 25-year-old who was claimed off of waivers from Oakland on April 4th after the A’s had claimed him off waivers from the Brewers the previous week. The Brewers acquired the 24-year-old off waivers from the Mets organization in April ’12. Stinson pitched 13 innings with New York in ’11. He relies on spotting his 87-93 mph sinking fastball low in the zone and getting hitters to bury it into the ground. He can throw his four-seamer a little quicker but he’s at his best when he mixes his sinker, hard curveball, slider, and change-up. Stinson posted a 3.16 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 0.43 HR/9 in 145 1/3 Triple-A innings. Frankly, we couldn’t give a rat’s ass on who is pitching for the Orioles. The Jays have made just about every average pitcher they’ve faced this year look like Sandy Koufax. The Blue Jays dropped the first two games of this series and had it not been for a blowup by the Yankees pen in the finale of a three-game series in Toronto this past weekend, the Blue Jays would be on a five-game losing streak. Only the Miami Marlins team batting average of .226 is lower than the Blue Jays team BA of .229.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Then there’s Brandon Morrow. We’re not sure why this guy gets so much credit. At one time, Morrow had as much or more promise than just about any pitcher in the big leagues but he has never lived up to expectations. This year his skills are the worst of his career and there are plenty of warning signs that support his high ERA. Morrow is striking out less batters and he has a disturbing 32%/47% groundball/fly-ball ratio. He comes into this one with a 1.71 WHIP, a BAA of .333, an ERA of 5.57 and a road ERA of 6.52. Morrow has been taken yard four times in 21 frames. Some pitchers have a fierce competitive spirit that makes them hate losing more than anything. Morrow has never shown that. He’s a guy with little emotion that is happy to pitch every fifth day while making a ton of money. Now his confidence is low and these Orioles are very capable of sniffing a wounded animal. Should we even mention the huge managerial edge the Orioles have? Nah, forget it. Jays favored here is incorrect. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]St. Louis +134 over WASHINGTON
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Everyone knows Stephen Strasburg can pitch. However, the Nationals have won just one of the four games he’s thrown in and lefties are hitting .268 against him. Trouble versus lefties is the only blip on his résumé and the Cardinals can pencil in at least four and possibly five left-handed hitters. Additionally, the Nationals have lost three in a row and they’re just 10-10 on the season. This isn’t about fading Strasburg though. This wager is all about backing the potential profit combination of St. Louis and Jaime Garcia. [/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
A consistent strikeout rate and a consistently good ERA came into question 18 months ago when doctors discovered damage in Jaime Garcia’s left shoulder. On the shelf for two months in the middle of the 2012 season, Garcia rebounded with solid skills over the final two months of the campaign. Walks are up so far through four starts this year but there’s a lot to like in the similarity of Garcia’s numbers to the salad days of 2010-11. Garcia is a pure GB pitcher (62%) and continues to keep the ball on the playable side of the fence. One could throw a blanket over the similar xERA figures of the last three years-plus, and Garcia has also been consistent with those years, from month to month. Garcia owns a very good strikeout rate in each of his last four full months of action. In 2012 Garcia’s velocity was down a bit. It has rebounded a little thus far in 2013 but more importantly, his ability to move the ball and induce grounders continues to be a talent his backers can rely on, making this price on Garcia and the Cardinals too good to ignore.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Chicago +144 over CINCINNATI
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. 12:35 PM EST. The Cubbies six wins are the same number of wins as the Astros and one more than Miami and San Diego. How can that be? Chicago’s starting pitching has been nothing short of brilliant and when you get pitching like that, regardless of whether you are scoring runs or not, (the Dodgers won games for years with great pitching and no offense), you are supposed to win games. Chicago’s 6-13 record has this fairly decent team grossly undervalued and we’ll look to take advantage beginning here. The Cubs had a lead going to the sixth inning in both games of this series so we’ll look to take the pens out of the equation here by playing the Cubs in the first five innings. After making just a few spot starts for the Cubs in previous years, Jeff Samardzija became a rotation mainstay last season where he thrived in the second half with a 2.58 ERA, fanning almost 10 batters a game. Samardzija's skills are not only holding up as a regular starter, they’re improving. Samardzija has whiffed 31 batters in 27 frames. His groundball is at an elite 58% and perhaps most importantly, his walks are down with just 7 in 27 IP. Not often to you get to take back a tag like this on a pitcher of this quality. Win or lose, the value is fantastic.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Mat Latos moved from the best pitcher's park in San Diego to this hitter's park with ERA and WHIP virtually unchanged. Latos reminds us that elite skills don’t care about a park’s dimensions. Latos’s strikeout rate is at an elite level this season but there is one somewhat disturbing stat in his profile. Latos has a 39%/24%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball ratio after four starts. He’s already been tagged for three bombs with two of those occurring at this park in his season debut against the Angels. His other start at Great American came against the Marlins so we’re not even going to count that one. Fact is, with that profile, Latos is sure to give up some long balls at this park and if the Cubbies can go deep one time and score a couple of runs, this ticket will be very cashable. Big overlay here. [/FONT]
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Cleveland +115 over CHICAGO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The White Sox continue to struggle at the plate and with that comes added pressure on both the defense and the starters. Over their past four games the South Side has scored seven times. Overall, Chicago is batting .229 and its 63 runs scored ranks them last in the AL. Lefty Jose Quintana followed up a poor season debut with two quality starts but there is no single hallmark skill in his profile. Quintana does have 17’s in 18 frames but with just 98 K’s in 154 career innings, we’re going to have to see a larger sample this year before trusting that Quintana will be able to maintain that strikeout pace. Quintana is just 24-years old and he has growth potential but his batted ball profile of 40%/20%/40% (GB/LD/FB) says he’s walking a tight rope.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Indians have seen plenty of southpaws this year. Cleveland’s 286 AB’s against lefties is tops in the league by a wide margin (Cincinnati is second with 237 AB’s). The Indians have hit a solid .267 against lefties with a just as solid .342 OBP, .469 SLG % and .810 OPS. Zach McAllister went 6-8 with a 4.24 ERA with 110 Ks in 125 IP last season. There is a foundation here for something interesting. McAllister’s rising strikeout rate and solid control is promising. He has 16 K’s and just three walks in 17 frames. Additionally, McAllister dominated righties in the second half of last season and he’s carried that over to this season with a .206 BAA versus right-handed batters. The White Sox are loaded on the right side with seven of the nine starters batting right including the entire infield. McAllister is a pitcher on our radar and we’ll gladly step in on him here. [/FONT]
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Milwaukee -116 over SAN DIEGO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Brewers have won nine straight and this pitching matchup favors Milwaukee more than all of those previous nine. The best pitch in baseball is still strike one but Edinson Volquez is not capable of throwing strikes consistently and that’s the main reason that the Padres are winless in four starts with Volquez going. The right-hander has walked 10 batters in 18 innings and six batters over his past nine innings. He’s given up 29 hits in those 18 frames (BAA of .354) because batters are sitting on those 2-0 and 3-1 fastballs that are inevitably on the way. Volquez has a 2.13 WHIP after four starts with an 8.84 ERA and now he has to face a team that is seeing beach balls. This can’t end well for this volatile chucker.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Marco Estrada has a 4.50 ERA after four starts and that has him undervalued. Estrada emerged last season as a dominant starter in spite of not having elite raw stuff. His pitch movement gives an explanation for how he was able to deceive batters. The vertical pitch movement on his four-seam fastball was one of the best in MLB among SP with at least 100 IP. This allowed him to generate strikeouts on that pitch even though he had a pedestrian 90 mph average fastball velocity. With surging skill trends and a mid-3.00s xERA, Estrada has the profile to post another sub-4.00 ERA in 2013 and so far everything looks even better than last season. In 24 innings, Estrada has whiffed 25 batters while walking just four. In 11 frames against the Rockies and Cardinals in two of his four starts, Estrada whiffed 15 batters and walked just one. If Mat Latos is -165 over Jeff Samardzija, how in the world can Marco Estrada be just -120 over Edinson Volquez and the Padres? Serious underlay offers up nothing but value.
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