| Yesterday | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | -3.32 |
| Last 30 Days | 33 | 31 | 0.00 | +12.82 |
| Season to Date | 33 | 31 | 0.00 | +12.82 |
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Chicago -113 over MIAMI
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Cubs have six wins in 20 games while the Marlins have five wins in 21 games so on paper, one could understand why the home-town Fish are favored, especially with Kevin Slowey’s 1.90 ERA after four starts. The problem for Miami is that paper doesn’t win games and they’ll face a Cubbies team that is likely to get some justice handed to them in this series and that justice will be victories beginning with this one. The early returns for Slowey are exciting after his first four games (1.90 ERA, 1.23 WHIP). However, command or skills hasn’t been the driver of those results. An 89% S% has helped the most. With an 88 mph fastball, an extreme fly-ball tilt, poor results against LH bats and a history (4.55 career ERA with a career BAA of .284) that supports his below average arsenal, Slowey is a poor bet to sustain his early success.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Edwin Jackson has three pure quality starts in his four games this season, yet has not earned a win. He has been brutal in his career versus the Marlins, where he is 1-6 in seven starts, with a 6.69 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. The good news is that these are not last year's Marlins against whom he had two disaster starts in three attempts. This version of the Marlins is the worst offense in baseball, as they have scored just 43 runs in their 19 games. Jackson's 3.36 xERA shows just how good he’s been this year. Jackson has whiffed 24 batters in 22 frames and comes in with an elite 63% groundball rate. Pay no attention to Jackson’s surface stats, he’s been as good as the rest of the Cubbies pitchers and he’s in line for a decent start. This is the perfect opponent to get well against. Play: Chicago -113 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2). [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]OAKLAND -1½ +168 over Baltimore
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The A’s are a fairly cheap price here at -122 but we’re going to play the run-line because Jason Hammel is on the verge of getting lit up. A newfound sinker plus added velocity worked wonders for Hammel last year, driving both is strikeout rate and groundball rate north before a knee injury derailed him in mid-season. This season, Hammel owns a 4.74 ERA and 1.22 WHIP after his first four starts and it’s likely to get worse. Hammel is not generating the strikeouts or groundballs he did in 2012. He has just 14 K’s in 25 frames to go along with a 37%/50% groundball/fly-ball profile. In fact, Hammel’s swinging strike rate has dropped from 10.0% in April 2012 to a miniscule 3.0% so far in April 2013, strongly suggesting that batters are no longer being fooled by his sinking two-seamer. Hammel's wobbly skills scream to stay away.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Jarrod Parker has gotten off to a horrible start. He had a 10.80 ERA after his first three starts but something clicked in his fourth start when he shut down the Rays by allowing one run in six full innings while striking out five and walking just two. That’s the Parker we expect to see again here. Parker went 13-8 with a 3.47 ERA in 181 IP last year. His successful rookie season was backed by worthy skills and it got better from him in the second half. He put it all together last year with an outstanding September. Parker’s average fastball velocity increased from 92.0 mph in the 1H to 92.8 mph in the 2H and he’s maintained that velocity this season. Parker has an array of different pitches that he’ll throw at any time. He is on our radar as a serious breakout candidate and now we get to buy low on him because of that rocky start. The surface stats don’t say it but the under the hood numbers suggest the A’s are going to tee off on Hammel and that Parker is going to have another quality start. Play: Oakland -1½ +168 (Risking 2 units).
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