Friday: 5 unit Play YTD: 55-50, + 19 units

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Thursday: 2-2, 0 units


KC -1 (-117) 3 units.
KC -1/2 . One unit
KC RL (+125).One unit. Scott Kazmir is a desperation move by the Indians due to injuries in their rotation. He's actually worse than Brett Myers. Kazmir, a few years ago, had a mid 90s fastball and a deadly slider. After his last major injury, those are gone along with his control. His fastball now sits in the 80s, and his slider is also slower with less command. In his last start he threw about 45% strikes, and was really off the plate on many pitches. His 4 seamer didn't have much if any sink, and if hitters lay off his slider, with his command, hitters are liable to get either many walks and/or meatballs when Kazmir is desperate for a strike. Santana, on the other hand, has reclaimed his slider, which has the downward movement and speed of his best years on the Angels. His velocity is also back. He is loving his newfound life in KC, and is looking like a #1 or #2. The Royals are coming off a very big win over the Tigers and Verlander in Detroit- scoring 5 runs in extra innings. They also won a doubleheader in Fenway Sunday. These might not be the old Royals. Coming home after games like that can get players pumped up for a homestand and bring better crowds. The Royals, with Holland now again dominating, have an excellent bullpen. Another reason to love this game is the Indians' lack of run production. Take out their 19 runs last week in a Houston game, and they have been pathetic at the plate. With Bourn out, the top and bottom of their lineup is without any run producers. Cleveland only seems to hit vs. weak pitching like Humber.
 

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I'm assuming the -1/2 is a First 5 Innings wager? I'm on this with ya, BOL!
 

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Atlanta. ML One unit(+118). The Tigers can't seem to win consistently despite all their talent. Since last year they have also been beaten in the first game of each series more than half the time. Slow starters? Their hitting has also cooled, hitting just .204 in the past week, with only one HR. The Braves have seen plenty of Anibal Sanchez, who right now is pitching well but way above his norm. And his norm for stats was in the DH-less NL. He is overdue for a tough game. On the other hand, the Tigers have seen very little of Paul Maholm, and only Fielder has seen him a lot- hitting 7 for 51 lifetime. With Maholm's varied pitches, speeds and movements, I think it'll be tougher for the Tigers to hit him. Detroit's bullpen also is showing cracks. They have a set up guy, but no real dependable closer, and poor middle relief. The Braves bullpen is very good. I was impressed that Atlanta went into freezing cold Coors and played very competitively- winning 2 out of 3 and losing only a one run game. They had the day off Thursday.
 

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Cinn. Reds ML (+119) One unit. The Nats had a great win Thursday behind Gio Gonzalez, but I don't think they are out of their slump. I've made that mistake far too often. Usually it means they got to a pitcher(Arroyo) whose had a really off night. I can tell you from watching Seattle, Houston and Cleveland (and sometimes Oakland), that these slumps usually return the next day when facing a better pitcher. And the Nats were hitting .189 the last 7 games before Thursday. And not much better before that. Homer Bailey has been on his game since last September, and his walk: K ratio is spectacular his last 8 starts. Other than a tough outing in St. Louis, he has been as good as any pitcher in the NL. Plus the Nats have not hit him well lifetime- with a small sample size. The Reds have hit Zimmerman fairly well, although Zim usually keeps his team in every game. But right now the Reds are putting out a better lineup and lead the NL in OBP.
 

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Red Sox RL (-120) One unit. Can't find any reason to take Houston other than Bedard in the far past pitched well vs. Boston. The Astros would look a lot worse if not for their Seattle games. Dempster is another crafty pitcher, who strikes out many(and the Astros fit that profile well). Houston's bullpen is starting to show wear, and it's defense continues to be part of their pitching issues. Boston has played a tough schedule, won, and now will seek to pad their record at home.
 

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Great call on KC. Great spot with value. Couldn't pull the trigger on that one. Great call cuz!
 

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STL -1/2 First 5 (-130) One unit. Jonathan Sanchez might be one start from being DFA or sent to the minors- if he has any options left. Pirates have the better bullpen, but the first 5 definitely favors Cards.
 

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I might play it tomorrow, but we'll see if the pitching matchup is the same.

I can't resist this total, but remember my poor totals record if you are thinking of tailing.
Colorado/ Arizona H+R+E over 29. One unit. Both pitchers give up many hits and above average in homers. Neither bullpen is very good. Both Coolorado and Arizona hit RHP very well, especially the Rockies. Arizona is a good hitter's park. And neither pitcher will pitch deep and their lousy middle relievers will come in- most likely. Both lineups have power.
 

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How did that prop total not win? Unbelievable
 

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