| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 34 | 32 | 0.00 | +12.82 |
| Season to Date | 34 | 32 | 0.00 | +12.82 |
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</tbody>
All games are 2 units with the exception of the Cubs.
Chicago -109 over MIAMI
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]You may look over the box scores from last night and barely notice Chicago’s 4-3 victory over the Marlins. It may not seem like a big deal but it was, as the Cubbies rallied from an early 3-1 deficit for their second win in the past seven games. Truth is, the Cubbies were in a position to sweep the Reds in Cincinnati prior to this series. They fought to win the opener of this one and they continue to get outstanding pitching. The Cubbies will send Scott Feldman (4.50 ERA) and his 0-3 record to the mound, which may not seem too appealing. On the surface, Feldman looks like a throwaway sign by the Cubs. With experience as a long man and a starter for Texas, with mostly very poor results, he is an easy player to skip over. But a second look might reveal more than you expect. Pay little attention to Feldman’s 10 walks in 14 frames, as his history says that’s an aberration that will not continue. Feldman has a career groundball rate of 55% and he’s at 53% this season. Feldman struck out six batters in five innings in his last start against Milwaukee, a game the Cubbies would’ve won had it not been for the three unearned runs on one pitch that he surrendered. Feldman is no ace but with an xERA of 3.49 and full skills to support it, he’s an under the radar pitcher that not many are going to notice. Against the Marlins and opposing Wade LeBlanc, this is a cheap price to pay[/FONT][FONT=arial !important].
Leblanc went 2-5 with a 3.67 ERA in 69 IP for Miami last season. This might have looked like more of a growth year had he stayed in San Diego but skills are borderline and LeBlanc has never had a sub-4.00 xERA in the bigs. A marginal strikeout rate, high fly-ball rate and many poor starts walk a tightrope above disaster. LeBlanc has a WHIP of 1.88 this season to go along with a xERA of 4.95 and that’s with an unsustainable 89% strand rate. LeBlanc won't kill your bankroll but if you wager on him you may have to visit it in the ICU. Cubs are gaining momentum and remain very much underpriced. Play: Chicago -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2). [/FONT]
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Atlanta +123 over DETROIT
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Tigers are 10-10 and lost with Justin Verlander on the hill yesterday against K.C. because their pen couldn’t hold a lead. That’s not unusual, as no lead is safe with Detroit’s volatile bullpen. Anibal Sanchez has put up some very good numbers this year but there are red flags that stick out. A groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 39%/24%/37% is among them. Sanchez also has a high strand rate that has kept his ERA down but once that normalizes, his ERA will rise. Sanchez allowed 11 hits in six innings in his last start against the Angels but somehow managed to wiggle out of many jams and give up just two runs. He may not be so lucky here.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The term "crafty left-hander" is an overused baseball axiom but it's accurate when the subject is Paul Maholm. Maholm doesn't blow hitters away; he locates pitches and changes speeds effectively and he's delivered very solid back-to-back seasons with ERAs under 3.70. Maholm seems to be improving with age. He heightened down his walk rate while striking out more hitters last season and that has carried over to this year where he has whiffed 25 batters in 26 frames while walking just eight. Maholm's groundball rate has remained right around 50% each year and is at 53% this year. What Maholm lacks in pure raw talent, he's making up for in guile and maturity. He keeps the ball in the park and usually on the ground, he can strike out a hitter when necessary and he walks few batters. Of course, it's still too easy to remember the days he spent toiling for mediocre Cubs and Pirates teams’ years earlier, which still affects perception and leaves him undervalued. Now pitching for a team that wins ballgames, Maholm has won three of his four starts this season and there’s no reason he can’t make it four of five.[/FONT]
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Baltimore +111 over OAKLAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]You have to really like the way Baltimore came out swinging in the opener of this series last night. The Orioles belted out 15 hits in a 10-2 victory and it seemed like every ball was hit hard. The A’s managed just two unearned runs on six scattered hits. Oakland has put up some crooked offensive numbers this year but a close look reveals that many of those skewed numbers were against the weak pitching staffs of the Astros (six games) and Mariners (four games). Current A’s batters have 29 career AB’s against Wei-Yin Chen with just six hits for a BA of .207. Chen has gone six innings or more in three straight starts and has surrendered three earned runs or less in all four of his starts. Chen won’t dazzle but what he will do is continue to give the Orioles good innings with a chance to win. This wager however, isn’t about backing Chen, it’s about playing the Orioles against Tommy Milone.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Milone is 3-1 with a 4.26 ERA. At home, he’s 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA but we’re not buying any of it. A control artist in the minors, Tommy Milone's ability to maintain similar accuracy in his first full MLB season was integral to his success as a rookie last year. However, low walks doesn't always reap results (see: Blanton, Joe; Nolasco, Ricky) and it's hard to overlook a few glaring negatives in Milone’s skill set. Milone continues to allow far too many fly balls and line drives. Righties gave him trouble last season especially in 2H (.316 Opp BA) although a 36% hit % vs. RHP didn't do him any favors, either. That also has carried over to this year, where righties are hitting .308 against him and lefties are hitting .264. Milone has plenty of kinks to work out, most noticeably the line-drive rate, which could ultimately lead to some ugly hit %-induced stat lines if maintained. The Orioles offense is loaded with strong bats from both sides of the plate and Milone’s xERA of 4.55 reminds us just how overpriced he really is. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Milwaukee +129 over LOS ANGELES
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Dodgers have won just three of their last 10 games while the Brewers have won nine of their past 10 games. Over that stretch, L.A. has scored 33 runs while Milwaukee has scored 53. Josh Beckett struck out nine Diamondbacks in 8.1 innings in his April 14th start at Arizona. In his other three starts, Beckett struck out four batters or fewer in each one. Beckett will be remembered as one of the principals in the Red Sox September dump deal of 2012. While he did recover nicely after the trade, on the whole, 2012 was a decidedly down year. While his peripherals were better than his 4.65 ERA last season, Beckett will be hard-pressed to regain his former glory. One of Beckett’s characteristics in the past has been a consistent strikeout rate. That changed in 2012, as Beckett lost almost 2 MPH on his fastball, which averaged 91 mph last year and is averaging precisely that this year too. In the past two seasons, Beckett surrendered less grounders and more fly balls than the two previous ones and that negative trend has carried over to this season. Beckett is 33 and missed some time with shoulder inflammation. Perhaps that is partially the cause for the skills downturn. A strand rate correction, along with a pitcher-friendly home park should help his ERA some, but his age and all those innings might be catching up to him. Still likely a league-average hurler, Beckett’s upside has diminished. The Dodgers are 0-4 in Beckett’s four starts this season.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
The Brewers have had great success against the Dodgers with four straight wins, six wins in seven meetings last season. Hiram Burgos made his major league debut last Saturday in place of the struggling Mike Fiers. Burgos has been in the Brewers system since 2009 but struggled to find consistent success, never moving behind High-A in his first three minor league seasons. However, he really turned the corner in 2012, when he had the third lowest ERA of any minor league pitcher, posting the following numbers across three levels: 10-4, 1.95 ERA and a .210 oppBA. Burgos does not have dominant stuff but he can throw five pitches, a fastball, slider, change-up, cutter, and curveball, with good control in any count. His fastball sits in the mid-80s and tops out at 91 mph. Over 477 IP the past four seasons, Burgos has consistently displayed excellent command. Burgos’ change-up and curveball are his strongest secondary offerings and he has good repeatable, simple mechanics. It will be interesting to see how well major league hitters adjust to his five-pitch arsenal lacking a dominant fastball, but if he fares well, he has a golden opportunity to stick in the rotation. A finesse pitcher with smarts, poise and outstanding control is a very good option at this park. With this price tag and the hotter team behind him, that option on Burgos and the Brewers is one we’ll gladly accept.
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Chicago -109 over MIAMI
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]You may look over the box scores from last night and barely notice Chicago’s 4-3 victory over the Marlins. It may not seem like a big deal but it was, as the Cubbies rallied from an early 3-1 deficit for their second win in the past seven games. Truth is, the Cubbies were in a position to sweep the Reds in Cincinnati prior to this series. They fought to win the opener of this one and they continue to get outstanding pitching. The Cubbies will send Scott Feldman (4.50 ERA) and his 0-3 record to the mound, which may not seem too appealing. On the surface, Feldman looks like a throwaway sign by the Cubs. With experience as a long man and a starter for Texas, with mostly very poor results, he is an easy player to skip over. But a second look might reveal more than you expect. Pay little attention to Feldman’s 10 walks in 14 frames, as his history says that’s an aberration that will not continue. Feldman has a career groundball rate of 55% and he’s at 53% this season. Feldman struck out six batters in five innings in his last start against Milwaukee, a game the Cubbies would’ve won had it not been for the three unearned runs on one pitch that he surrendered. Feldman is no ace but with an xERA of 3.49 and full skills to support it, he’s an under the radar pitcher that not many are going to notice. Against the Marlins and opposing Wade LeBlanc, this is a cheap price to pay[/FONT][FONT=arial !important].
Leblanc went 2-5 with a 3.67 ERA in 69 IP for Miami last season. This might have looked like more of a growth year had he stayed in San Diego but skills are borderline and LeBlanc has never had a sub-4.00 xERA in the bigs. A marginal strikeout rate, high fly-ball rate and many poor starts walk a tightrope above disaster. LeBlanc has a WHIP of 1.88 this season to go along with a xERA of 4.95 and that’s with an unsustainable 89% strand rate. LeBlanc won't kill your bankroll but if you wager on him you may have to visit it in the ICU. Cubs are gaining momentum and remain very much underpriced. Play: Chicago -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2). [/FONT]
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Atlanta +123 over DETROIT
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Tigers are 10-10 and lost with Justin Verlander on the hill yesterday against K.C. because their pen couldn’t hold a lead. That’s not unusual, as no lead is safe with Detroit’s volatile bullpen. Anibal Sanchez has put up some very good numbers this year but there are red flags that stick out. A groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 39%/24%/37% is among them. Sanchez also has a high strand rate that has kept his ERA down but once that normalizes, his ERA will rise. Sanchez allowed 11 hits in six innings in his last start against the Angels but somehow managed to wiggle out of many jams and give up just two runs. He may not be so lucky here.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The term "crafty left-hander" is an overused baseball axiom but it's accurate when the subject is Paul Maholm. Maholm doesn't blow hitters away; he locates pitches and changes speeds effectively and he's delivered very solid back-to-back seasons with ERAs under 3.70. Maholm seems to be improving with age. He heightened down his walk rate while striking out more hitters last season and that has carried over to this year where he has whiffed 25 batters in 26 frames while walking just eight. Maholm's groundball rate has remained right around 50% each year and is at 53% this year. What Maholm lacks in pure raw talent, he's making up for in guile and maturity. He keeps the ball in the park and usually on the ground, he can strike out a hitter when necessary and he walks few batters. Of course, it's still too easy to remember the days he spent toiling for mediocre Cubs and Pirates teams’ years earlier, which still affects perception and leaves him undervalued. Now pitching for a team that wins ballgames, Maholm has won three of his four starts this season and there’s no reason he can’t make it four of five.[/FONT]
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Baltimore +111 over OAKLAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]You have to really like the way Baltimore came out swinging in the opener of this series last night. The Orioles belted out 15 hits in a 10-2 victory and it seemed like every ball was hit hard. The A’s managed just two unearned runs on six scattered hits. Oakland has put up some crooked offensive numbers this year but a close look reveals that many of those skewed numbers were against the weak pitching staffs of the Astros (six games) and Mariners (four games). Current A’s batters have 29 career AB’s against Wei-Yin Chen with just six hits for a BA of .207. Chen has gone six innings or more in three straight starts and has surrendered three earned runs or less in all four of his starts. Chen won’t dazzle but what he will do is continue to give the Orioles good innings with a chance to win. This wager however, isn’t about backing Chen, it’s about playing the Orioles against Tommy Milone.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Milone is 3-1 with a 4.26 ERA. At home, he’s 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA but we’re not buying any of it. A control artist in the minors, Tommy Milone's ability to maintain similar accuracy in his first full MLB season was integral to his success as a rookie last year. However, low walks doesn't always reap results (see: Blanton, Joe; Nolasco, Ricky) and it's hard to overlook a few glaring negatives in Milone’s skill set. Milone continues to allow far too many fly balls and line drives. Righties gave him trouble last season especially in 2H (.316 Opp BA) although a 36% hit % vs. RHP didn't do him any favors, either. That also has carried over to this year, where righties are hitting .308 against him and lefties are hitting .264. Milone has plenty of kinks to work out, most noticeably the line-drive rate, which could ultimately lead to some ugly hit %-induced stat lines if maintained. The Orioles offense is loaded with strong bats from both sides of the plate and Milone’s xERA of 4.55 reminds us just how overpriced he really is. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Milwaukee +129 over LOS ANGELES
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Dodgers have won just three of their last 10 games while the Brewers have won nine of their past 10 games. Over that stretch, L.A. has scored 33 runs while Milwaukee has scored 53. Josh Beckett struck out nine Diamondbacks in 8.1 innings in his April 14th start at Arizona. In his other three starts, Beckett struck out four batters or fewer in each one. Beckett will be remembered as one of the principals in the Red Sox September dump deal of 2012. While he did recover nicely after the trade, on the whole, 2012 was a decidedly down year. While his peripherals were better than his 4.65 ERA last season, Beckett will be hard-pressed to regain his former glory. One of Beckett’s characteristics in the past has been a consistent strikeout rate. That changed in 2012, as Beckett lost almost 2 MPH on his fastball, which averaged 91 mph last year and is averaging precisely that this year too. In the past two seasons, Beckett surrendered less grounders and more fly balls than the two previous ones and that negative trend has carried over to this season. Beckett is 33 and missed some time with shoulder inflammation. Perhaps that is partially the cause for the skills downturn. A strand rate correction, along with a pitcher-friendly home park should help his ERA some, but his age and all those innings might be catching up to him. Still likely a league-average hurler, Beckett’s upside has diminished. The Dodgers are 0-4 in Beckett’s four starts this season.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
The Brewers have had great success against the Dodgers with four straight wins, six wins in seven meetings last season. Hiram Burgos made his major league debut last Saturday in place of the struggling Mike Fiers. Burgos has been in the Brewers system since 2009 but struggled to find consistent success, never moving behind High-A in his first three minor league seasons. However, he really turned the corner in 2012, when he had the third lowest ERA of any minor league pitcher, posting the following numbers across three levels: 10-4, 1.95 ERA and a .210 oppBA. Burgos does not have dominant stuff but he can throw five pitches, a fastball, slider, change-up, cutter, and curveball, with good control in any count. His fastball sits in the mid-80s and tops out at 91 mph. Over 477 IP the past four seasons, Burgos has consistently displayed excellent command. Burgos’ change-up and curveball are his strongest secondary offerings and he has good repeatable, simple mechanics. It will be interesting to see how well major league hitters adjust to his five-pitch arsenal lacking a dominant fastball, but if he fares well, he has a golden opportunity to stick in the rotation. A finesse pitcher with smarts, poise and outstanding control is a very good option at this park. With this price tag and the hotter team behind him, that option on Burgos and the Brewers is one we’ll gladly accept.
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