Nothing too great on this card for me. Still risking a good amount to make some profit. Thanks for the support and have a great event everyone!
Johnny Bedford -150 vs Bryan Caraway +130 - going to play with fire and take Bedford in this one. I know Bedford has been subbed in 8 of his 9 losses and Caraway has 14 subs in his 17 wins. I feel like its 2 fighters going in different directions. Bedford can keep the fight standing and dominate the fight and if Caraway gets a takedown, I think Bedford can get back to his feet. Caraway will have little success on his feet and will be shooting for takedowns the entire fight. Bedford may have found his game as he finished his first 2 ufc fights against pretty decent opponents.
2 units Johnny Bedford -150
Rustam Khabilov -300 vs Yancy Medeiros +250 - not many people heard of Yancy but i will tell you this kid can fight. He's been training the last few years to get in shape and fight as a lightweight and he really looks good. look for a very strong debut as he takes on Khabilov. Its tough to get the images of Khabilov throwing Vinc Pichel all over the mat in his ufc debut out of your mind but i don't think he can do that against Yancy. Khabilov still a developing young fighter, has no business being 3-1 and he will have trouble controlling Yancy as he's done his other opponents. Taking Medeiros to impose his will and get the win.
2 units Yancy Medeiros +250
Leonard Garcia -180 vs Cody McKenzie +160 - more of a "fade" play against than a "play on". Garcia hasn't won a clean decsion since he beat jens pulver in 2008. Since that fight he's gone 3-7-1 with 3 split decision wins. now McKenzie isn't exactly on a roll either, losing 3 of his last 4 fights. In the matchup, can the bigger McKenzie latch on to Garcia's neck? the answer is a yes from me because Garcia is slowing down and he's not hard to get close to in a fight. Even though Garcia's future is on the line, i think McKenzie is the fresher fighter who can execute his gameplan.
1 unit Cody McKenzie +160
Jon Jones -900 vs Chael Sonnen +650 - right away I want to say i'm going with Chael. Jones to me, has all the signs of someone about to take a fall. He's a young fighter that found success real quick and now has to deal with the pressure of being expected to win every fight. Belfort nearly finished him and though i really feel like the ufc wants to "protect" him as a champion there's no such thing as an easy fight. Sonnen pressures people like no other, he comes straight at you and clinches and tries to drag you down. Jones is used to controlling the pace of a fight with his length, well he will have to counter in this one. I see Jones on his back for the first time and he may make a mistake on the ground and get submitted. If there were ever a "live" dog, its Sonnen. You can't discount the fact that he fought Anderson Silva for 7 rounds and won most of them.
1 unit Chael Sonnnen +650
"opinions" on other fights;
Michael Bisping -170 vs Alan Belcher +150 - won't make an official play on this but i really like Bisping. Belcher hasn't really shown that he can take the next step as a contender and he will have to win this fight clearly for me to believe he can beat top middleweights. Bisping on the other hand is pretty similar unable to get that elusive title shot but good enough to handle the mid-tier fighters. Between these 2 though, i think Bisping has advantages in kickboxing and wrestling. Line is too high or i may have played
this.
Roy Nelson -240 vs Cheick Kongo+200 - feel like Kongo has hit the "fade" time of his career, he's now 37 just had a bad shoulder injury and it seems like his chin is starting to go. Not many chins better than Nelson, a strong heavyweight that can absorb a lot of punishment and keep fighting. Nelson by ko is my prediction but i can't trust him at this price to land his right hand. I fear Kongo using his wrestling to control "Big Country" much like Mir was able to do against Nelson.
Jim Miller -300 vs Pat Healy +250 - Healy on top of his game right now(6 straight wins) and though Miller is great, he's actually going through a rough stretch(2-2 L4) In the fight, Healy is a giant lightweight and he will have a great chance of winning if he can get Miller down to the ground. Miller will use his speed to land multiple shots in hopes of hurting Healy and pouncing for the finish. Both fighters are grinders, but I will lean to Pat to control Miller and get the upset win.
good luck with your plays,
-boldtiger
Johnny Bedford -150 vs Bryan Caraway +130 - going to play with fire and take Bedford in this one. I know Bedford has been subbed in 8 of his 9 losses and Caraway has 14 subs in his 17 wins. I feel like its 2 fighters going in different directions. Bedford can keep the fight standing and dominate the fight and if Caraway gets a takedown, I think Bedford can get back to his feet. Caraway will have little success on his feet and will be shooting for takedowns the entire fight. Bedford may have found his game as he finished his first 2 ufc fights against pretty decent opponents.
2 units Johnny Bedford -150
Rustam Khabilov -300 vs Yancy Medeiros +250 - not many people heard of Yancy but i will tell you this kid can fight. He's been training the last few years to get in shape and fight as a lightweight and he really looks good. look for a very strong debut as he takes on Khabilov. Its tough to get the images of Khabilov throwing Vinc Pichel all over the mat in his ufc debut out of your mind but i don't think he can do that against Yancy. Khabilov still a developing young fighter, has no business being 3-1 and he will have trouble controlling Yancy as he's done his other opponents. Taking Medeiros to impose his will and get the win.
2 units Yancy Medeiros +250
Leonard Garcia -180 vs Cody McKenzie +160 - more of a "fade" play against than a "play on". Garcia hasn't won a clean decsion since he beat jens pulver in 2008. Since that fight he's gone 3-7-1 with 3 split decision wins. now McKenzie isn't exactly on a roll either, losing 3 of his last 4 fights. In the matchup, can the bigger McKenzie latch on to Garcia's neck? the answer is a yes from me because Garcia is slowing down and he's not hard to get close to in a fight. Even though Garcia's future is on the line, i think McKenzie is the fresher fighter who can execute his gameplan.
1 unit Cody McKenzie +160
Jon Jones -900 vs Chael Sonnen +650 - right away I want to say i'm going with Chael. Jones to me, has all the signs of someone about to take a fall. He's a young fighter that found success real quick and now has to deal with the pressure of being expected to win every fight. Belfort nearly finished him and though i really feel like the ufc wants to "protect" him as a champion there's no such thing as an easy fight. Sonnen pressures people like no other, he comes straight at you and clinches and tries to drag you down. Jones is used to controlling the pace of a fight with his length, well he will have to counter in this one. I see Jones on his back for the first time and he may make a mistake on the ground and get submitted. If there were ever a "live" dog, its Sonnen. You can't discount the fact that he fought Anderson Silva for 7 rounds and won most of them.
1 unit Chael Sonnnen +650
"opinions" on other fights;
Michael Bisping -170 vs Alan Belcher +150 - won't make an official play on this but i really like Bisping. Belcher hasn't really shown that he can take the next step as a contender and he will have to win this fight clearly for me to believe he can beat top middleweights. Bisping on the other hand is pretty similar unable to get that elusive title shot but good enough to handle the mid-tier fighters. Between these 2 though, i think Bisping has advantages in kickboxing and wrestling. Line is too high or i may have played
this.
Roy Nelson -240 vs Cheick Kongo+200 - feel like Kongo has hit the "fade" time of his career, he's now 37 just had a bad shoulder injury and it seems like his chin is starting to go. Not many chins better than Nelson, a strong heavyweight that can absorb a lot of punishment and keep fighting. Nelson by ko is my prediction but i can't trust him at this price to land his right hand. I fear Kongo using his wrestling to control "Big Country" much like Mir was able to do against Nelson.
Jim Miller -300 vs Pat Healy +250 - Healy on top of his game right now(6 straight wins) and though Miller is great, he's actually going through a rough stretch(2-2 L4) In the fight, Healy is a giant lightweight and he will have a great chance of winning if he can get Miller down to the ground. Miller will use his speed to land multiple shots in hopes of hurting Healy and pouncing for the finish. Both fighters are grinders, but I will lean to Pat to control Miller and get the upset win.
good luck with your plays,
-boldtiger
