Saturday: Sox Streak Ends YTD: 57-53, +17.95 units

ofred · Apr 27, 2013

Friday: 2-3, -1.05 units. Another total loss. I must be 1-10 on my totals bets. Without those, I'd be having a pretty good year. How is it that the Rockies and D-Backs couldn't scratch across a run in the last 3 innings? Ugh.

Tampa ML (-115). 2 units. I really like this line. Tampa plays well on the road, and the White Sox have squeaked out 3 wins behind very good pitching from their starters. And Chicago has faced much weaker pitching than the guys pitching for them. But the White Sox still are not really hitting well, and Matt Moore is looking Harvey-like. 26 IPs, 10 hits and looking better of late than at the start of the season. His ball movement is truly incredible almost no matter what he throws. Chicago has the worse BB:K ratio in the AL and issues at the top of the lineup, the bottom and Adam Dunn in the middle. Gavin Floyd is going to look hittable after facing Sale and Peavy, and before that, Tampa was hitting well and with power. They lead the mlb in HRs in the past week. Floyd has an array of pitches, but his command wavers at times. Because of that he has given up a HR every 7+ innings or so. And for the past 3 years has pitched poorly at home. The Rays bullpen is good enough to finish if needed.

ofred · Apr 27, 2013

Pirates ML (+112) one unit. Talk about due. Westbrook is living on borrowed time for sure. He given up 14 walks to 8 Ks, and 18 hits in 21 IPs, but only 3 runs. His strand rate must be 95% +. Westbrook lifetime has about a .285-.290 BAA, and with his present control issues, he is due to get rocked. Westbrook has a huge sample size vs. these Pirate hitters and they're hitting .314. A few Pirates really hit him- Alvarez, Tabata, McCutchen. AJ Burnett is also pitching over his head, but he's just a better pitcher, with much better stuff. He also has command issues, but can shut down an inning by striking out 2 or 3 batters. The Cards always play good baseball, but are hitting only .239 in the past week and got lucky Friday to see Jonathan Sanchez on the mound followed by Jeanmar Gomez and the ultimate stiff Mazzaro. The Pirates also have a bullpen edge here.

ofred · Apr 27, 2013

Arizona-1 (-125) 2 units. Jeff Francis is also living on borrowed time. His velocity is so slow now that his slider looks like a slow change up. He is a soft tossing lefty that truly has no out pitch. Arizona hasn't been hitting very well lately, but they can have abating practice coach mimic Francis' stuff before the game. In his last 3 starts: 10 IPs, 22 hits, 14 runs, 3 HRs, and 8 walks. In those starts batters are hitting over .400. The Rockies would have deep-sixed him already, but as you can see, they are desperate enough to pitch Chatwood, then Francis is right there with him. The Rockies, like last year, are pitching guys that really are lucky to be at AAA. Injuries and lack of pitching talent is what keeps them from really competing for a playoff spot. Wade Miley(LHP) is a good opponent for Colorado, whom doesn't hit lefties as well. Miley is a fast starter who likes pitching in Chase Field- figure that. He keeps the ball down and has great sink, giving up few long balls. He also can hit. This line says a lot. The Rockies are winning, and hitting well and yet are +163 on the ML. That's how bad Francis might pitch, and how good Miley might pitch. We could see in the Atlanta series with Colorado, that their hitting can be tamed.

ofred · Apr 27, 2013

Toronto ML (+154) One unit. This line seems like a bargain. The Yankees are hitting only .208 vs. LHP while hitting .286 vs. RHP. Happ is capable of a good outing and has 2 outstanding ones this year. He has a small sample size vs. these Yankees, but has pitched well. Hafner will be on the bench, Youk is out most likely, Gardner is a lefty as is Ichiro, and many of the Yankees have never seen or barely seen Happ's stuff. The Jays, I think, actually will field a better lineup Saturday, are familiar with Sabathia, and we all know they can hit homers- which are even more likely in Yankee Stadium. I also think Sabathia is being overvalued, especially with this Yankee lineup and defense.

BlueRiot · Apr 27, 2013

Not playin kc?

ofred · Apr 27, 2013

KC Royals -1 (-115) 4 units.
KC -1/2 First 5 (-120) One unit. The line wasn't up last night, but I don't see anything different in the intangibles of this game, except the Indians have played hardly any baseball this week. Santana has also benefitted in the past from an extra day off. (My write-up is in the Friday thread)

Vauxhall · Apr 27, 2013

o fred said:
Pirates ML (+112) one unit. Talk about due. Westbrook is living on borrowed time for sure. He given up 14 walks to 8 Ks, and 18 hits in 21 IPs, but only 3 runs. His strand rate must be 95% +. Westbrook lifetime has about a .285-.290 BAA, and with his present control issues, he is due to get rocked. Westbrook has a huge sample size vs. these Pirate hitters and they're hitting .314. A few Pirates really hit him- Alvarez, Tabata, McCutchen. AJ Burnett is also pitching over his head, but he's just a better pitcher, with much better stuff. He also has command issues, but can shut down an inning by striking out 2 or 3 batters. The Cards always play good baseball, but are hitting only .239 in the past week and got lucky Friday to seeg be rude. Jonathan Sanchez on the mound followed by Jeanmar Gomez and the ultimate stiff Mazzaro. The Pirates also have a bullpen edge here.

You'll lose this one.

ofred · Apr 27, 2013

Vauxhall said:
You'll lose this one.

Can you give me some reasons why?

Lurkage · Apr 27, 2013

Vauxhall said:
You'll lose this one.

Thanks for chiming in with your intelligent insight and good vibes, you are a true benefit to this forum.

Vauxhall · Apr 27, 2013

Okay, I'll play along. Hint: check out the last time AJ Burnett pitched in St Louis.

ofred · Apr 27, 2013

That game you are referring to was last May 2nd. In his other 3 starts vs. St. Louis since last year: 19.2 IPs, 3 ERs. He has pitched very well vs. this group of Cards' hitters. Furthermore, on days where pitchers got "nothing" they would give up bunches of runs to even the worst teams. I hardly think one bad game in St. Louis last May indicates how he'll do this time out. That game is called an outlier. Stats guys talk about them all the time, and how they often remove them from their compilation of their numbers. Anyways, thanks for your input.

Arizona -1/2 First 5. one unit.

JustinCruise · Apr 27, 2013

Good luck freddy o.
I'm with you on Tampa Bay but I disagree about Burnett. St Louis will light him up today and Westbrook is the groundball master at home.

bol my man!

ofred · Apr 27, 2013

Westbrook is a groundball specialist, but in his long career, things average out, and many of his ground balls are due to get through the infield, or become line drives. Westbrook has not been this good, as his past years indicate.

JustinCruise · Apr 27, 2013

o fred said:
Westbrook is a groundball specialist, but in his long career, things average out, and many of his ground balls are due to get through the infield, or become line drives. Westbrook has not been this good, as his past years indicate.

1.25 ERA isn't good?

ofred · Apr 27, 2013

Good for a small sample size, but look back for 5 years. He's the same pitcher.

Atlanta ML (-105) One unit. Can't resist this number with Porcello going. A ground ball pitcher too with a lousy fielding infield. Porcello is a contact pitcher who had the worst BAA in the AL last year for starters. The Tigers knocked around Maholm, impressive, but they are usually inconsistent. Now a tough righty instead of a tough lefty in Medlen. Braves also have much better bullpen. After this start, Smyly will be joining the rotation.

Vauxhall · Apr 27, 2013

o fred said:
That game you are referring to was last May 2nd. In his other 3 starts vs. St. Louis since last year: 19.2 IPs, 3 ERs. He has pitched very well vs. this group of Cards' hitters. Furthermore, on days where pitchers got "nothing" they would give up bunches of runs to even the worst teams. I hardly think one bad game in St. Louis last May indicates how he'll do this time out. That game is called an outlier. Stats guys talk about them all the time, and how they often remove them from their compilation of their numbers. Anyways, thanks for your input.

Arizona -1/2 First 5. one unit.

You may call it an outlier, but I think it's critical. Why? Because the other games you mentioned were all played in Pittsburgh. The fact remains: the last time he took the mound in St Louis he got absolutely destroyed. Don't think he's forgotten.

JustinCruise · Apr 27, 2013

Should be interesting to see freddy. Maybe one of us is right and one of us is wrong. Perhaps we are both right and the game will come down to the late innings.

btw also love the braves this afternoon. gl

Vituperate · Apr 27, 2013

ty for your write ups fred...your thread is a "must stop" everyday...ty for the early postings as well.

XSPower · Apr 27, 2013

Good luck today my friend!!!!

XS

PatsFanatic · Apr 27, 2013

Vituperate said:
ty for your write ups fred...your thread is a "must stop" everyday...ty for the early postings as well.

+1

Saturday: Sox Streak Ends YTD: 57-53, +17.95 units

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